Economics Graduate Program - Master Degree

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http://hdl.handle.net/11527/17505

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Çıkarma tarihi ile Economics Graduate Program - Master Degree'a göz atma

Dizinde bir noktaya atla:
  • Öge
    Education and Income Inequality in Turkey: New evidence from panel data
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2015) Öztürk, Esra ; Kayaoğlu-Yılmaz, Ayşegül ; 393620 ; Economics ; İktisat
    In this thesis, the education and income inequality in Turkey is analyzed, the education Gini coefficient is calculated in provincial level and the impact of education inequality on income inequality is examined by using static and dynamic panel data estimation methods in provincial level for the period between 2008 and 2013. The results of the analysis indicate that western regions of Turkey has more equal income and education distributions than eastern part of the country. Furthermore, the empirical part shows that there is a negative relationship between education and income inequalities which are measured by Gini coefficients. Key words: Income Inequality, Education Inequality, Panel Data Analysis JEL Codes: O15, I24, C33
  • Öge
    Can Energy Efficiency Save Energy? An economy-wide rebound effect simulation for Turkey
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2016) Somuncu,Tuğba ; Hannum, Christopher Micheal ; 436982 ; Economics ; İktisat
    Energy efficiency is often considered as one of the most important tools for reducing use of energy resources. However in the literature there is an ongoing debate about certain offsetting impacts. These offsetting impacts are called take-back effects or rebound effects. According to economic theory, an increase in energy efficiency will ensure a reduction in per unit price of energy services. A price reduction will stimulate energy demand from consumers and firms and eventually will lead to a higher energy consumption level. While the first effect is called a direct rebound second one is called an indirect rebound effect. In this study economy-wide rebound effects for Turkey which consist of the sum of direct and indirect effects has been examined. In the case of Turkey energy efficiency stands out as a crucial issue; because Turkey, as an energy importing country, wants to reduce energy consumption while maintaining economic growth. There are several policies, plans and strategies that aim to promote energy efficiency. However the big question remains whether obtaining higher levels of energy efficiency will result in a lower energy consumption level or not. In order to estimate economy-wide rebound effects, constructed an energy-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Turkey by creating a social accounting matrix (SAM) based on the 2002 Turkey Input-Output table from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK). In addition to these official records to provide a more realistic view of Turkish economy shadow economy is included into SAM. Because both theoretical and empirical studies reveal that size of rebound effect is sensitive to price elasticity of demand; when demand is more elastic rebound is likely to be seen. In a situation like consumers don't pay for energy their demand becomes independent of price and doesn't response to any price reduction in energy. In particular Turkey face a serious leakage energy consumption where consumers benefit from costless energy. It would be a legitimate assumption that these consumers' demand over energy is price inelastic. Consequently a price reduction in energy services could lead no change in demand. Nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) structure for production and household utility in which energy and capital are perfect complements and the energy-capital composite (e.g. building services) substitutes for labor and other intermediate goods with a Cobb-Douglas form has been applied. Household utility is generated using a Cobb-Douglas functional form from food, services, savings and a durable goods composite created by combining an industrial good and energy. The industrial good and energy are treated as perfect complements. Rebound effect is defined as percentage increase in total energy consumption over the expected (reduced) energy consumption level. Two energy efficiency policies which are being implemented in Turkey has been introduced into model. The first is energy certification for buildings and the second is mandatory energy labeling for household appliances. The first is energy certification for buildings which demonstrates their energy consumption level and groups them into 7 categories as A,B,C,D,E,F, or G. In accordance with this law newly constructed buildings must meet at least C level in order to qualify for building permit. As an energy efficiency increment it is assumed that all existing buildings will be improved to C level from G while all new buildings will be in the C category. The second policy is mandatory energy labeling for household appliances, which is functionally similar to energy certification for buildings. A durable good bundle of energy and industrial goods is composed, representing the usage of appliances. Energy efficiency in this bundle is assumed that increases due to the policy with the same percentage increase as has been observed over the 10 years since the initial formulation of the policy. Simulations for the both scenarios show rebound effect which ranges between 18-%19. These results indicate that approximately 20 percent of energy savings due to improvements in the energy efficiency are lost due to the rebound effect. Since size the of the rebound is great enough to be non-negligible, any policy, forecast or action which does not take it into consideration will be inadequate.
  • Öge
    The Impacts Of Foreign Direct Investments On Economic Growth In Turkey: 1980-2015
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2016-01-01) Onaran, Sema ; Selim, Raziye ; Economics
    Foreign direct investments in Turkey have expanded rapidly following the liberalization programme initiated in the early 1980s. Turkey has accomplished a record level in terms of its performance to attract foreign direct investments (FDI) in post-2000 era. Inflow of foreign currency, increasing capital stock, generating employment and transfer of technology are among the benefits of FDI to the host country. And the contribution of FDI to the host country’s economy through realizing production is the most significant impact of the FDI to the recipient country. The study aims to explore the impacts of the foreign direct investments on economic growth during the years 1980 to 2015 using time series analysis. The annual data of the gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, direct investments, and foreign trade announced by TURKSTAT, CBRT and Ministry of Development were employed in the study. According to the results of the analysis, there is a positive long-run relationship between economic growth and other variables. The Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test results suggest that the variables are non-stationary at levels, but become stationary in the first differences. Through the Johansen Co-integration test, the relationship between the variables have been explored and it has been found that there is long-run relationship between GDP and other variables, and the effect is statistically significant. Also, finding of Granger causality states that there is a bidirectional causality between FDI and GDP. The results of this study imply that a positive change in the level of foreign direct investments is likely to increase the production of goods and services in Turkey.
  • Öge
    Explaining Foreign Direct Investment Inflows To Turkey: Using Time-series And Augmented Gravity Model Estimations
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2017) Şenzeybek, Murat ; Kayaoğlu Yılmaz, Ayşegül ; 486148 ; Economics ; İktisat
    Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is a very important economic indicator for a country, especially for a developing one. It does not only provide jobs and value addition for the host country, but also creates a positive spillover effect and know-how transfer to it. Hence, it is not surprising that researches find a positive effect of FDI on economic growth and development of host countries. As a developing country with a current account deficit problem, Turkey aims to be a more attractive place for foreign investors as it can be seen from its medium-term economic program. Therefore, understanding the factors behind the FDI inflows to Turkey is an important topic both for academia and policy-makers. However, it seems that there is not enough research about the determinants of FDI inflow to Turkey in the literature. Moreover, to best of our knowledge, none of these researches used Gravity Model to analyze the determinants of FDI inflow and they rather used outdated data sources when they analyzed this question empirically. Hence, we firstly employed Gravity Model to explain determinants of FDI inflow to emerging countries and Turkey. Secondly, to investigate whole period after globalization of the country, we used time series model by using data from 1980 to 2014. Our findings for emerging countries show that distance between host and source country has significant and negative relationship with FDI inflow like it has been found for the trade flows in the literature. Furthermore, when GDP of host or source country is higher, FDI flow between these two countries is getting increased
  • Öge
    The Effects Of Capital Inflows On Real Exchange Rate
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2017) Yıldız, Tuğçe ; Erdal, Fuat ; 469086 ; Economics ; İktisat
    This thesis aims to analyze the effects of capital inflows on real exchange rate. It is claimed that there is a strong relationship between capital flows and real exchange rate. International capital flows have exceeded international trade flows in goods and services recently due to globalization so capital flows are expected to have more significant effects on real exchange rate than other variables. Therefore, we initially focus on the literature about the relationship between real exchange rate and capital flows as well as the other variables like exports and imports. Then, we mention about the changes in exchange rate and exchange rate policies during the last thirty years in Turkey. The data used in our analysis are taken from electronic data delivery system of the Central Bank of Turkey and the website of IMF. In this thesis, monthly data are used from 2003:01 – 2016:06. We implement the VAR method in our analysis and start our analysis by removing seasonality from our data in order to obtain more robust results. Three different models are estimated in the study. In the first model, we investigate the relationship between real exchange rate, foreign direct investments, portfolio investments, other investments and interest rate. We observe that the foreign direct investment explains the biggest share in error prediction variance of real exchange rate except for real exchange rate. Furthermore, our second model includes real exchange rate, export, import and interest rate and we clearly observe that capital inflows are better in explaining the changes in real exchange rate. Moreover, we develop our third model by including all variables we use in both model 1 and model 2. We also obtain consistent results and the foreign direct investment explains most of the change in real exchange rate.
  • Öge
    Understanding the linkage between objective and subjective well-being in Turkey
    (Institute of Science and Technology, 2017-01-20) Çalışır, Seda ; Stoeffler, Quentin ; Economics
    In this thesis, we investigate the association between two aspects of well-being in Turkey: objective and subjective. By employing the third European Quality of Life Survey for 2011, we assessed the generalized ordered logistic regression in which we conclude that if an improvement occurs in objective well-being components, subjective well-being is getting improved as well. Mental well-being is another indispensable well-being component which should be employed in well-being studies. Focusing on monetary measures of well-being is limited because of ignoring the subjectivity. Then we recommend the combined application of objective and subjective well-being as it provides promising and valuable insights.
  • Öge
    The Impact Of Interest On Income Inequality: An Empirical Investigation
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2018) Maraşlı, Ozan ; Ertemel, Sinan ; 512646 ; Economics ; İktisat
    In this study, the effect of interest on income inequality is measured through the effect of real interest rate and the interest payments of the government on Gini index and income shares of income decile groups. By using a sample which includes the data of 26 countries between 1998-2014, we concluded that increases in both real interest rates and interest payments increases income inequality by increasing Gini coefficient and transferring a proportional income from the bottom and middle income groups — generally from bottom 60% — to the top decile and thus reducing social welfare, as this study reveals the exploitative nature of interest on the poor.
  • Öge
    Estimation Of Food Demand In Turkey Using Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2018) Kalay, Ali Furkan ; Ecer, Sencer ; 536975 ; Economics ; İktisat
    Demand estimation is crucial for people, companies, and governments. It is important not only for predicting the future quantities, but is also important to understand the consumer behaviour. Because, understanding the consumer behaviour helps to decision-making process. This thesis estimates the food demand in Turkey for the years between 2008 and 2016. Because, drastic increases in inflation rates in recent years is mostly attributed to the food prices. Besides, demand for food is relatively more inelastic compared to the other commodity groups. So, food demand in Turkey is an important subject for the welfare of the Turkish people. One can make inferences on the consumers' well-being by observing the revealed preferences which is a subject of the Microeconomic Theory. By understanding the Neoclassical Demand Theory, one can better understand the consumers' behaviours (and preferences). Therefore, I examine the Neoclassical Demand Theory before estimating the food demand in Turkey. I use Almost Ideal Demand System to estimate food demand, because it satisfies many desirable assumptions of the Neoclassical Demand Theory. However, I make estimations using Quadratic AIDS instead of AIDS. Because QUAIDS assumes that consumers have quadratic Engel Curve which is more appropriate for the demand systems. On the other hand, AIDS and QUAIDS are nonlinear models; but in order to make estimations faster, it is converted into a linear model called Linear Approximated AIDS. However, LA/AIDS has some econometric problems like endogeneity; therefore I estimate QUAIDS nonlinearly. One of the distinctive feature of this study is that I estimate food demand after aggregation of household surveys.
  • Öge
    The Impact Of Energy Independence And Security Act Of 2007 On Renewable Energy Consumption In The United States
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2018) Nabiyev, Abdul Baghi ; Chakravorty, Shourjo ; 534549 ; Economics ; İktisat
    In recent years, global warming, climate change, increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere, fluctuations in oil prices and countries' reliance on imported energy resources have increased the number of studies in the renewable energy field. Recognition of renewable energy sources as the main energy source coincided with the 1970s, and the number of studies carried out in this area is steadily increasing. In the literature, there are several studies in relation to the association between renewable energy consumption and economic growth. Differently, from other studies, the contribution of existing empirical study to the economic literature addresses the effectiveness of implemented sustainable energy policies. This study examines the impact of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007) on renewable energy consumption in the US. The results obtained from this study are important for the countries that support renewable energy investments such as Turkey, India, China and aims to provide guidance for future studies. In this study, independent variables GDP, oil price and CO2 emissions which affect renewable energy consumption were introduced. Then our control variable which is EISA(2007) was explained. A set of time series consisting of total renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions were chosen from the Energy Information Agency (EIA), and real GDP and oil prices were obtained from the Federal Reserve Economy Database (FRED). This dataset covers the first quarter of 1990 and the last quarter of 2017. First, to test the stability of these time series, ADF, PP, DF-GLS stationarity tests were employed and according to the obtained results it was understood that the series were stationary at their first differences. After the Johansen Cointegration test was performed, the model was estimated with Dynamic OLS and Fully Modified OLS estimators. According to the results obtained from both estimators, EISA (2007) positively and statistically significantly affects renewable energy consumption from 2008 to 2017 in the US.
  • Öge
    Forecasting Electricity Prices In Turkey: A Comparison Of Classical Econometrics And Machine Learning Techniques
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2018) Karagülle, Yunus Emre ; Güloğlu, Bülent ; 512523 ; Economics ; İktisat
    Liberalization of electricity markets trends has been widening in the world since 1990s and the process is still continuing in many countries. As a result of liberalization, the private retailer and distribution companies role has increased in the markets. Like other countries, government enterprises was operating the Turkish Electricity market before 2000s. However, Turkish Government enacted a electricity market law for deregulation of the market in 2001. Accordingly, Turkish Electricity Trading and Contracting (TETAS) was established in 2001 with the aim of sustaining the energy trade and reach a competitive electricity market. Afterwards, Day-Ahead market and Intra-Day markets are established in the following years. As a result of the liberalization process, forecasting electricity prices has become an important requirement in energy companies' decision-making process to maximize profits by offering competitive bid and ask rates. On the contrary to other time series, electiricity prices have complex structures and dynamic determinants which makes difficult to forecast prices. For examle, one of the determinants of the electricity is demand and it is known that demand is highly related with temperatures. In summer, electricity demand expeced to increase due to cooling needs. However, it may change accordingly with tempetures. Futhermore, electiricty demand is also changing according to hour of the day or day of the week and so on. Another thing is that, generation source and type and the amount may also affect the prices. Consequently, electiricty prices are generally representing complex non-linear structures. There are many methods for forecasting electricity prices. However, artificial neural networks are known to be good forecasting method for covering non-linear effect of the prices. On the other hand, time series methods are easy to forecast and interpret the relationships. Lastly, quantile regressions are capturing the different conditional distributions and may be useful for capturing spkies. Therefore, artificial neural networks, time series and quantile regression is used. First, non-linear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) is used with Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm. It is a two-layer feedforward network with sigmoid activation function.
  • Öge
    Understanding The Causes Of Child Labor And Its Sectoral Distribution In Turkey
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2018) Kanun, Orçun ; Kayaoğlu Yılmaz, Ayşegül ; 512200 ; Economics ; İktisat
    Both in world and in Turkey, child labor still continues to be a major problem. The nature of describing the causes of this issue is complex. However, this dissertation focuses on the causes of child labor and its sectoral distribution in Turkey. In this focus, this thesis explains that the causes of child labor using probit and weighted probit models with several factors such as characteristics of households, children related factors, demographic decomposition of household and spatial factors. Moreover, multinomial logit model is used to which sectors are considerably affected by these factors.
  • Öge
    Constructing A Financial Stress Index For Turkey: A Multivariate Garch Approach
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2018) Şenol, Pınar ; Güloğlu, Bülent ; 534471 ; Economics ; İktisat
    Various economic crises have been experienced due to the dynamics of the country as well as the global crises that have lived in the world from past to present. Many of the important studies in economics aimed to estimate these fluctuations in the markets and to examine their relations with each other. In this context, since the early 2000s, financial stress indexes have been established by economists or central banks for various countries. The financial stress indexes created are specific to countries or regions and have some differences. These differences are the methods as well as the data types that are used. In this study, the financial stress indexes created for Turkey. Also, different countries are examined in the literature review. There is the necessity of constructing a new financial stress index because of the economic fluctuations in Turkey in recent years. The financial stress index of Turkey demonstrates the economic activity after important financial events that are called as financial crisis. The financial stress index which is a continuous variable as a time serie and its extreme values are called financial crises in the literature. The financial stress index can be expected to increase in the case of expected financial loss, risk potential or uncertainty financial conditions. In this study, the financial stress index of Turkey is generated with using the banking sector, equity market, money market and exchange market variables. The financial stress index of Turkey is constructed on daily basis for the period from 2 January 2007 to 29 November 2017. The data diversity has been expanded in this study when compared to previous studies in Turkey that is why this study has importance for Turkey. Firstly, the variables of each sector were standardized.
  • Öge
    Analysing The Effect Of Coalition On Cost Structure For Turkish Liberal Electricity Market And Allocation Of Profit Surplus With Cooperative Game Theory
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2019) Karaca, Nurtaç ; Ertemel, Sinan ; 565864 ; Economics ; Ekonomi
    In this study, retail electricity supply to the high consuming customers is analyzed using cooperative game theory to find the way of sharing the extra profit that is generated via cooperation. The physical electricity supply chain consist of producing, transmission, distribution and retail. The retail activity includes sale of electricity to end users. The retail activities are splited in two manners, the regulated and the liberal. In the liberal supply chain, consumers are eligible customers, who are entitled to select their suppliers as their consumption amount is over the electrical power amount defined by the Energy Market Regulatory Board. There are different types of market player in liberal retail electricity, as incumbent and non-incombent retail companies, electricity wholesalers, and power producers.
  • Öge
    Targeting The Poor: Health Card Distribution In Burkina Faso
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2019) Çubukcu, Betül ; Stoeffler, Quentin ; 569602 ; Economics ; Ekonomi
    This study compares two targeting mechanisms commonly used in Africa; proxy mean test (PMT) and community- based targeting (CBT). The performance comparison of the two methods is extended through a new set of poverty criteria: health and nutrition. First, consumption per capita household was used as the main welfare metric. Then, household health index was created based on the household survey. This index was used the determine household welfare level. Lastly, nutrition score was used as a welfare metric. For this purpose, household dietary diversity score (HDDS) was calculated based on 12 food group. Results showed that while PMT outperforms on consumption welfare metric, CBT outperforms on health and nutrition welfare metric. These indicated that poverty perception of the community doesn't solely base on the consumption like PMT formula.
  • Öge
    The Impact Of Unconditional Cash Transfer Programs On Children: An Example Of Pilot Social Safety Nets In Cameroon
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2019) Yavuz, Mehmet ; Stoeffler, Qentin Xavier Marin ; 569589 ; Economics ; Ekonomi
    Concordantly with increasing belief in the effectiveness of cash transfer programs, there is an increase both in the number of such projects and in studies examining their impacts. The subject of this thesis is pilot unconditional cash transfer project implemented in 2013 with the cooperation of Cameroon government and World Bank in the far north of Cameroon. In this thesis, the effect of cash transfer on child education and child labor for children those living on beneficiary households are examined. The results of the study provides that unconditional cash transfer have an impact on increasing in the number of children going to school, on decreasing in the number of children dropping out of the school and households' total expenditure for education while on increasing in the number of working children. In summary, this study provides that the concepts of child education and child labor are complementary rather than substitute.
  • Öge
    Volatility Spillovers And Dynamic Hedgings: Evidence From Selected Stock Markets, Precious Metalsand Oil Futures
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2019) Yılmaz, Tunahan ; Güloğlu, Bülent ; 572571 ; Economics ; Ekonomi
    This paper investigates the most optimal hedging portfolio for each emerging countries by performing dynamic conditional correlations. Throughout the study, spanning the period from 02/01/2006 to 01/11/2018, we used daily index values of S&P 500 (USA), FTSE-100 (UK), NIKKEI 225 (Japan), Nasdaq(USA), DAX_30 (GERMANY) to represent developed stock markets. Investment instruments in emerging countries are represented by two groups. One of them is exchange rates in terms of U.S. Dollars such as Brazilian Real, Turkish Lira, Malaysian Ringgit, Indian Rupee Another one contains domestic stock market indices such as BOVESPA, BIST_100, FTSE_BURSA, and BSE_SENSEX. Also, we added some precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, as well as some types of oil such as Brent and WTI to the hedging portfolio as a commodity. In this essay, the presence of the long memory property and asymmetry were taken into account. To test for long term memory property, Rescaled Range Statistics (R/S), Geweke and Porter-Hudak (GPH) Model and Gaussian Semi Parametric (GSP) methods were employed.
  • Öge
    Understanding Female Labor Force Participation In Turkey
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2019) Benotsmane, Rofaida ; Stoeffler, Qentin Xavier Marin ; 569361 ; Economics ; Ekonomi
    Female labor force participation rates that remain still low and even sagging in certain regions around the world are but one indication of this huge problem. And Turkey, at the intersection of Europe and Asia, appears hardly immune to it. Despite its rapid economic growth and notable improvements to women's education, age of marriage and fertility rates, the country is still characterized by a low FLFP. The thesis at hand aims to help decipher this phenomenon in the striking case of Turkey. This thesis is the first of its sort that focuses specifically on the country's female population 'not in employment, nor in education, nor in training.' It explores why some women remain out of the nation's otherwise strong labor force although they are not following any formal education or professional training either. It contains regression analyses run for different age groups in order to identify specific factors for each group.
  • Öge
    The Effect Of Framing On Support For Renewable Energy In Turkey
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2019) Akgün, Elif ; Hannum, Christopher Michael ; 569614 ; Economics ; Ekonomi
    When social planners desire to lead people's perceptions and attitudes for a given subject, they use framing techniques. The existence of framing effect on a given subject implies that decisions are description-dependent. That is, unlike classical economy suggests, economic agents are not rational while making decisions. Framing is becoming more and more important when there is a division of ideas over a subject or when the targeted population are divided in terms of moral and political values they hold such as environmentalism in United States. On the one hand, political liberals support environmental actions, while on the other, political conservatives neglect the reality of climate change even though its severe effects can directly be felt.
  • Öge
    Does A Positive Relationship Between Renewable Energy Investment And Real Gdp Of Countries Really Exist?
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2019) Zeren, Ahmet Baran ; Chakravorthy, Shourjo ; 569165 ; Economics ; Ekonomi
    The growth hypothesis suggests that an increase in energy consumption causes an increase in real GDP. In this study, the association between real GDP and renewable energy investment are examined. The local nature of renewable energy resources is one of special importance for sustainable energy due to the fact that their countries reduce dependence on external energy sources and they are continuous and clean energy sources. For this reason, the contribution of renewable energy in global final energy production was 8.5% in 2013 while the incentives for the dissemination of renewable energies in many countries of the world increased from 19.1% in 2014 to 23.7% in 2015. This situation shows that approximately one fifth of the energy consumed in the world (1/5) is met from renewable sources. The reason why the issue is so important is the two major problems facing the world, especially economic reasons.
  • Öge
    The Effects Of The Exchange Rate Volatility On Turkish Exports:a Panel Data Analysis
    (Institute of Social Sciences, 2019) Akıl, Halil İbrahim ; Güloğlu, Bülent ; 568995 ; Economics ; Ekonomi
    After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system(1946-1973), most of countries started to adopt the floating exchange rate system. Several research has focused the interaction between volatility of exchange rate and export performance of the countries after this period. Turkish export shows an increasing trend in 2000s with floating exchange rate regime. Literature documents that Turkish export has been significantly affected from volatility of exchange rate. In this paper, I analyze the impact of the exchange rate volatility on Turkish sectoral basis export volume. By considering the regime effect, I only cover the data for the period of 2001-2018, in which floating exchange rate regime adopted in Turkey.