Siyaset Çalışmaları Lisansüstü Programı - Yüksek Lisans
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Yazar "Kayaoğlu Yılmaz, Ayşegül" ile Siyaset Çalışmaları Lisansüstü Programı - Yüksek Lisans'a göz atma
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ÖgeThe Determinants Of Voting Behavior In Turkey: A Micro-level Analysis For The Period 2012-2014(Institute of Social Sciences, 2016) Sak, Ali Kürşat ; Kayaoğlu Yılmaz, Ayşegül ; 436984 ; Political Studies ; Siyaset ÇalışmalarıThis thesis examines that the factors that shape party preferences in Turkey by estimating an individual vote intention function for the period 2012-2014. The dependent varible is party preferences of the respondents. It consist of seven categories including AKP, CHP, MHP, BDP, other, indecisive and no vote cases. Our model also includes several socio-demographic and socio-economic, identity, region, party preferences in the previous election and economic voting variables as independent variables. The economic variables consist of retrospective-prospective and pocketbook-sociotropic hypotheses of economic voting theory. Micro data from 21 identical electoral tendency surveys which conducted between 2012 and 2014 are used in empirical analysis. Multinomial logit model is used employed in the empirical analysis. Multinomial logit estimates of voting intention function reveal that economic voting is present in Turkey in the sense that both pocketbook and sociotropic evaluations affect the likelihood of voting for the incumbent party. In other words, the economic perceptions and expectations of Turkish voters influence their likelihood of voting for the currently-ruling AKP. The last vote choice seems to be the most important and critical variable in explaining and predicting the vote. As far as identity variables concerned, sect, the degree of religiosity, lifestyle are most important factors with the economic variables and the last choice on party preferences. Region, education level, age and gender have relatively less importance. Working status, income level and settlement have little effect on voting decision and are found to be insignificant in most cases.