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ÖgeDesign of seafarer-centric safety system; mental workload (MWL) prediction(Graduate School, 2022-01-06)It is known that the human factor has a major effect on maritime casualties that cause great harm to the environment, economy, and maritime sector. It was stated that while human error is the primary contributor to accidents, a good part of collisions and groundings were related to the mental workload (MWL) of watchkeeping officers. Automation, mechanization, and the introduction of new technologies have changed the working conditions together with reducing the number of crew and increasing the MWL of operators. This indicates that human element-related issues will continue to be one of the major issues in marine transportation assets. In maritime-related studies, it has been analyzed mostly how the ship's environment, working period, and other factors affect the seafarers. Almost all maritime-related studies couldn't have the potential to develop an MWL prediction system for maritime operations aspect. However, lots of studies on drivers and pilots, have produced successful results for MWL prediction. Taking into consideration the fact that MWL has a major contribution to maritime casualties, the development of a real-time MWL prediction system is vitally essential for ships. By implementing the similar measurement techniques used in the studies on drivers and pilots, to maritime transportation, this study aims to classify the physiological responses of the operators that can produce an output for the state of the officer on duty as "Safe" or "Risky" from the collected physiological data and task load data during the seaborn operations. This study predicates the theories which are the statement "minimum performance requires sufficient behavioral activity" of Sheridan and Simpson (1979) together with the inverted U function of Yerkes and Dodson (1908) which presents the relationship between arousal and performance. Moreover, the theory of Young et al. (2015) which presents the relationship among mental workload, performance, task demand, and resource supply and indicates the overload region, guides this study in terms of building the structure of the experimental research. By being predicated on the above-mentioned theories, this study aimed to design a Cognitive Seafarer-Ship Interface (CSSI) which is a main part of the Seafarer-Centric Safety System. The physiological data of the 17 junior deck officers (12 subjects performed navigation scenario, 5 subjects performed cargo operation scenario) was recorded according to the design. By being correlated with the performance of the officer, the change of physiological responses of the subjects were analyzed in low and high task load levels. The medical decision-making process, which deduced "Safe" or "Risky", was run for this change. For performance measurement which is a part of a triangulated measurement strategy (Wierwille and Eggemeier, 1993), Officer Performance Model which is used for MWL classification, was developed for navigation and cargo operation tasks. Additionally, the inputs of the Task Load Estimator were defined as data transcription from navigational aids according to the results of classification. In summary, the following process was done and results were found.
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ÖgeKonteyner liman operasyonlarının makine öğrenmesi yöntemleri ile analizi(Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, 2022-01-28)Deniz taşımacılığında seyir planlaması ve operasyon ile ilgili tahmin yürütebilmek için farklı türde veri kullanılabilmektedir. Hava durumu, yük bilgileri ve gemi özellikleri gibi verilerin uygun sistemler ile toplanıp analiz edilmesi enerji verimliliği sağlanması açısından değerli çıkarımlar yapılabilmesine olanak sağlayabilmektedir. Tıpkı elektronik seyir sistemleri ve yardımcılarında olduğu gibi elde edilecek verinin yenilikçi yöntemler ile operasyon sürecine dahil edilmesiyle birlikte deniz taşımacılığının güvenli, emniyetli ve uygun maliyetli bir şekilde tamamlamasına katkı sağlanabilmektedir. Öte yandan, veri bilimi uygulamaları farklı sektör uygulamaları ile son yıllarda yaygınlığını artırmaya başlamıştır. Uzman ya da analiz yapan kişiler yeterli ve doğru veri ile hesaplamalar yapabilmek için farklı yöntemleri kullanabilmektedir. Bu doğrultuda, ekipman ya da insan tarafından üretilen veri ile sistem davranış modellemesi yapılabilmektedir. Büyük veri, müşteri deneyimi analizlerinden veri madenciliği araçlarına kadar paydaşlara çeşitli çözümler sunabilmektedir. Operasyon verimliliği, sürücü destek sistemleri, tahminleyici bakım ve makine öğrenmesi uygulamaları ile çeşitli uygulama alanlarında çalışmalar bulunmaktadır. Benzer şekilde denizcilik sektörü uygulamaları sayesinde akıllı çözümler paydaşlara enerji tasarrufu ile birlikte uygun maliyetli seçenekler sunabilmektedir. Ayrıca, veri madenciliği çözümleri sayesinde daha büyük miktarda verinin üretildiği liman operasyonları için değerli analizler ve geliştirme hedefleri sağlanabilmektedir. Limana varış ve bekleme süresi tahmini yanı sıra yakıt tüketim hesabı ile hava kirliliğini azaltmak için gerçek zamanlı veri uygulamaları konteyner terminallerinde etkin makine öğrenmesi çözümlerinin ana başlıkları olarak değerlendirilebilir.
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ÖgeLack of Arctic and Antarctic issues in international code for ships operating in polar waters (polar code) and suggesting positive improvements(Graduate School, 2021-05-20)The effects of industrial activities have reached global dimensions over the last century. Global climate change triggered as a result of industrialization which has brought many global issues. Currently, the consequences of global climate change are observed dramatically in the polar regions. As a result, the Arctic has become more important in geopolitical and geoeconomic terms with the melting of ice and disappearance to a large extent. As the sea ice coverage has been decreasing, the number of maritime activities such as tourism, fishing, and maritime transportation increased in the Arctic Ocean. On the other hand, the Antarctic is currently subject to scientific research and activities like fishing and tourism, which increase over time as well. While the polar environment's harshness presents significant risks to the ships, maritime activities also threaten the sensitivity of polar ecosystems and marine wildlife and habitats' vulnerability. The lack of accurate charts and marine infrastructure, the harshness of the environment, the limitations of radio and satellite communications to monitor and control ship movements in polar waters are the main challenges of operations in polar regions. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) aimed to legalize Polar Regions' shipping measures, and the International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code) came into force, but there are question marks if Polar Code provides significant protection. This thesis consists of three articles on lack of Arctic and Antarctic issues in Polar Code. First one suggests the extention of the Polar Code application areas in the Arctic. While maritime activities are increasing in the Arctic, little attention is being paid to some of the northernmost regions that are greatly influenced by the Arctic climate and are excluded from the Polar Code. The marine boundaries of the Arctic region have been defined differently by the Arctic Council Working Groups based on physical, geographical, and ecological characteristics. However, the boundaries of the Polar Code are not compatible with any of them. In the first article, the extent of sea ice change and the maritime traffic in the high north and also maritime safety in the frame of the application of the Polar Code boundaries in the Arctic analyzed and extention of the Polar Code application areas in the Arctic suggested. In the second article, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent change, arisen maritime safety and security issues and legal instruments relevant to the scope are evaluated. It is considered that some significant differences regarding sea ice in the content of Polar Code is not evaluated. The main contribution of this paper is the assessment of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice condition differences via remote sensing data analyzes in the scope of the Polar Code. Third paper, which evaluates the Polar Code within the survey scope conducted with the people who have sailed in these regions and make suggestions to develop the Polar Code further. The original value of this study to the literature is that it draws attention to the differences between Arctic and Antarctic and points out the deficiencies in Polar Code and suggests its further development. Additionally, it provides data regarding sea ice changes and maritime activities trends in polar regions and supported by the opinions of the people who are working in those regions according to the survey evaluations.
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ÖgeCoğrafi veriye analitik bilgiye dayalı denizcilik okulları segmentasyonu ve kalite değerlendirmesi(Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, 2021-04-12)Küresel ticarete konu malların taşınmasında % 90'dan daha fazla paya sahip olan denizcilik sektörünün işgücü kaynağı nitelikli gemiadamlarıdır. Her ne kadar insansız gemiler ve tam otomasyona sahip gemiler üzerinde çalışmalar devam etse de yakın gelecekte gemiadamına olan ihtiyacın azalması bir yana özellikle zabit sınıfı gemiadamları açığının giderek artacağı öngörülmektedir. Türkiye'de denizcilik eğitimi Yükseköğretim Kurulu (YÖK)'e bağlı fakülteler, yüksekokullar ve meslek yüksek okullarında, Milli Eğitim Bakanlığı (MEB)'e bağlı resmi ve özel meslek liseleri / denizcilik meslek liseleri ile özel denizcilik kurslarında icra edilmektedir. Gemiadamları eğitiminin, Türkiye'nin de taraf olduğu "Gemiadamlarının Eğitim Belgelendirme ve Vardiya Tutma Standartları Hakkında Uluslararası Sözleşme (STCW-1978)" hükümlerine uygunluğunu denetleme ve bu sözleşmeye göre gemiadamlarının belgelendirilmesi, Türkiye'nin denizcilikten sorumlu idaresi olan Ulaştırma ve Altyapı Bakanlığı tarafından yerine getirilmektedir. Dolayısı ile Türkiye'deki denizcilik eğitim kurumları kuruluş ve işleyiş bakımından eğitim seviyesine göre MEB'e ve YÖK'e bağlı olsa da gemiadamları eğitiminin akreditasyonu ve belgelendirilmesi açısından Ulaştırma ve Altyapı Bakanlığı'na tabidir. Bu yetkilendirme STCW-1978 Sözleşmesi gereklerine uygun olarak yürürlüğe konulan Gemiadamları ve Kılavuz Kaptanlar Eğitim ve Sınav Yönergesi hükümlerine göre yapılmaktadır. Yönergeye göre eğitim kurumlarının ekipman, müfredat, derslik, eğitici, simülatör, denizde güvenlik eğitimi tesisi, kalite yönetim sistemi gibi kriterleri sağlaması gerekmektedir. Aralık 2020 itibariyle Türkiye'de 20'si önlisans düzeyinde, 26'sı lisans düzeyinde, 52'si lise düzeyinde, 70'i kurs düzeyinde olmak üzere 168 denizcilik eğitim kurumu bulunmaktadır. Bu kurumlardan yalnızca 101 tanesi Ulaştırma ve Altyapı Bakanlığı tarafından akredite edilerek gemiadamı eğitimi vermek üzere yetkilendirilmiştir. Dünyada eğitim kurumlarının eğitim kalitesinin değerlendirilmesi ve sıralanması için bazı metodolojiler geliştirilmiş ve bu hususta yayımlanmış "en iyi" sıralamaları mevcut olsa da, denizcilik eğitim kurumlarının eğitim kalitesini ve sıralamasını bilimsel ve sistematik bir yaklaşımla ele alan bir çalışma bulunmamaktadır. Aynı şekilde bu alanda Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri'nden faydanılarak denizcilik eğitim kurumlarının segmentasyonu ile ilgili bir çalışmaya rastlanılmamıştır. Türkiye ölçeğinde de bu alanda yapılan çalışmalarda ağırlıklı olarak denizcilik eğitiminde karşılaşılan sorunlar, eğitim kurumlarındaki eğitimci profilleri, gemiadamlarının eğitimine yönelik diğer tespitler ve öneriler yer almaktadır. Yine bu çalışmalarda, denizcilik eğitim kurumlarında yapılan iç denetim, dış denetim veya idari denetim gibi nesnel bir izleme ve değerlendirme mekanizması sonucu elde edilen veriler ışığında yapılmış bir araştırmaya rastlanılmamış, ağırlıklı olarak eğitimci sayısı, öğrenci sayısı, akademik çalışma sayısı, altyapı olanakları gibi temel bilgiler irdelenmiştir. Türkiye'de denizcilik eğitim kurumlarının Gemiadamları ve Kılavuz Kaptanlar Eğitim ve Sınav Yönergesi çerçevesinde yapılan izleme ve değerlendirme faaliyetleri kapsamındaki denetlemelerinde elde edilen uygunsuzluklar, Ulaştırma ve Altyapı Bakanlığı'nın Gemiadamları Eğitim Bilgi Sistemi (GAEBS) bünyesinde kaydedilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemlerinden faydalanılarak önce denizcilik eğitim kurumlarının coğrafi dağılım haritaları çıkarılmış ve ülkemizin denizcilik eğitim kapasite ihtiyaçlarının belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmanın devamında 2011-2017 yılları arasında 117 denizcilik eğitim kurumunun denetlemesinde elde edilen uygunsuzluklara ilişkin entropi tabanlı gri ilişki analizi yapılarak kalite değerlendirmesine ilişkin ağırlık faktörleri hesaplanmış, bu sonuçlara göre Türk denizcilik eğitim kurumlarının uygunsuzluk faktörlerine göre coğrafi segmentasyonu yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuç ve öneriler kısmında dünya gemiadamı piyasasından yeterli pay alabilmek için denizcilik eğitim politikalarının çağımızın gerektirdiği bilim, teknolojik gelişmeler, eğitim altyapısı, tecrübe ve yabancı dil eğitimi hususları ile uluslararası piyasada tercih edilme kriterleri göz önüne alınarak yeniden yapılandırılması önerilmiştir.
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ÖgeDesign of seafarer-centric safety system; mental workload (MWL) prediction(Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, 2022)It is known that human factor has a major effect on maritime casualties that cause great harm to environment, economy and maritime sector. It was stated that while human error is the primary contributor of accidents, a good part of collisions and groundings were related to mental workload (MWL) of watchkeeping officers. Automation, mechanization and the introduction of new technologies had changed the working conditions together with reducing the number of crew and increasing the MWL of operators. This clearly indicates that human element related issues will continue to be one of the major issues in marine transportation assets. In maritime-related studies, it has been analysed mostly how the ship's environment, working period and other factors affect the seafarers. Almost all maritime-related studies couldn't have a potential to develop MWL prediction system for maritime operations aspect. However, lots of studies on drivers and pilots, have produced successful results for MWL prediction. Taking into consideration the fact that MWL has major contribution to maritime casualties, the development of real-time MWL prediction system is vitally essential for ships. By implementing the similar measurement techniques used in the studies on drivers and pilots, to maritime transportation, this study aims to classify the physiological responses of the operators that can produce an output for state of officer on duty as "Safe" or "Risky" from the collected physiological data and task load data during the seaborn operations. This study predicates on the theories which are the statement "minimum performance requires sufficient behavioural activity" of Sheridan and Simpson (1979) together with inverted U function of Yerkes and Dodson (1908) which presents the relationship between arousal and performance. Moreover, the theory of Young et al. (2015) which presents the relationship among mental workload, performance, task demand and resource supply and indicates the overload region, guides this study in terms of building the structure of the experimental research. By being predicated on the above-mentioned theories, this study aimed to design Cognitive Seafarer - Ship Interface (CSSI) which is a main part of Seafarer-Centric Safety System. The physiological data of the 17 junior deck officers (12 subjects performed navigation scenario, 5 subjects performed cargo operation scenario) was recorded according to the design. By being correlated with the performance of the officer, the change of physiological responses of the subjects were analysed in low and high task load levels. The medical decision-making process, which deduced "Safe" or "Risky", was run for this change. For performance measurement that is a part of triangulated measurement strategy (Wierwille and Eggemeier, 1993), Officer Performance Model which is used for MWL classification, was developed for navigation and cargo operation tasks. Additionally, the inputs of Task Load Estimator were defined as data transcription from navigational aids according to results of classification. In summary, the following process were done and results were found. Firstly, the navigation and cargo operation scenarios were created to simulate ship environment. The difficulty level of navigation scenario was gradually adjusted (in order to prevent acquired skill) according to traffic density, visibility and geography by combining in 4 steps. The difficulty level of cargo operation scenario was gradually adjusted according to type and number of operation and operation period corresponding to a real cargo operation by combining in 3 steps. Task load assessments of the scenarios were carried out according to Operator Function Model (OFM-COG) and its sample implications in literature. The results of NASA-TLX scores of the subjects supported the increase of task load levels of the scenarios. ANOVA results showed that there are significant differences in the NASA-TLX scores of 5 different dimensions and in total, among 4 steps which have different task load levels for navigation scenario. Similarly, ANOVA results showed that there are significant differences in the NASA-TLX scores of 3 different dimensions and in total among 3 steps which have different task load levels for cargo operation scenario. According to the subjective assessments of the subjects, MWL increased during the both of navigation and cargo operation scenarios. Secondly, ROC curve analysis was performed for validation of developed officer performance model. Recorded performances of the participants were evaluated as "safe" and "risky" for each task by one ocean going Master expert for navigation tasks and by one ocean going Chief Officer for cargo operation tasks. According to the ROC curve analysis, developed officer performance model was validated with high significance and AUC values. These results showed that the developed officer performance model can be used in any study focused on performance measurement in navigation and chemical tanker cargo operations. Being validated measurement method, performances of the subjects showed that there is a negative significant correlation between performance score and task load in both of navigation and cargo operation tasks. With the distinction of the task load as high task load and low task load, the performance scores were also found significantly different in low and high task loads for both of navigation and cargo operation tasks. Thirdly, physiological responses of the subjects were often differentiated between low and high task loads. Although the change of time-based heart rate variability (HRV) features was not found meaningful according to literature during the increase of task load, the change of frequency-based, time-frequency and nonlinear HRV features were found significant and meaningful during the increase of task load. Moreover, the change of some electrodermal activity (EDA) features and some eye responses were found significant in this study. However, the change of EDA responses was not found strongly correlated with the increase of task load. This can be explained by the fact that electrodermal activity occurs in stressful conditions rather than mental workload. The "frustration" scores of the NASA-TLX supported the fact that the subjects didn't feel so stressed during the tasks. On the other hand, the change of pupil diameter features was found significant and meaningful during the increase of task load in navigation tasks but in cargo operation tasks. Additionally, the change of blink frequency features varied across the scenarios. The variable results of eye responses are thought that the selectivity of eye blinks and pupil diameter to MWL is low according to literature. Additionally, the reason of the fact that the change of some eye features was significant during the increase of task load is thought to be related with the characteristics of eye responses that pupil diameter change is correlated highly with error rate and blink rate increases in incorrect responses rather than correct responses. Therefore, these significances can be explained with the decrease of performance together arising from the increase of task load. On the other hand, the correlations between HRV and EDA features, HRV and eye features, EDA and eye features were found significant and meaningful in mental workload theory. Classification process was carried out with artificial neural network (ANN) code and "Classification Learner" tool of Matlab 2020a. Although the results of the classifications of the subjects' physiological responses on high and low task loads in this study did not give very good accuracies, compared with the studies in literature, they gave sufficient results. The classification accuracies, 75.7% in testing, 83.3% in all for navigation tasks, 80.0% in testing, 92.5% in all for cargo operation tasks and 61.3% in testing, 77.0% in all for cross-task classification have been found similar to those stated in the related studies whose mental workload and stress classification accuracies vary between 70.48% and 98%. According to classification efforts of physiological responses on high task load and low task load levels and performance scores of the subjects, the red lines of task demand became appear in this study. Continuing from the aim of Orlandi and Brooks (2018) and the contributions to MWL prediction in marine engine operations of Yan et al. (2019), the red lines of task demand in ship navigation was tried to determine in this study. Classification of physiological responses and the distinction of the task loads according to the performances of the subjects have ensured the task load to be separated as high task load and low task load. Thus, the inputs of the Cognitive Seafarer-Ship Interface (CSSI) were formed with the outputs of high task load details for navigation and the physiological responses given as features (classified in this study). CSSI processes the task loading together with physiological data of the officer and gives an output as "Risky" for safety of navigation in "The future Seafarer-Centric Safety System design" to be used on ships or at the Shore Control Centre for autonomous ships in future. Consequently, this study will contribute to literature, being the first study in terms of predicting MWL for navigation and cargo operations in maritime transportation. In addition, this study will be a guide for future studies as it reveals the design of the "Seafarer-Centric Safety System" to be developed in order to minimize maritime casualties.