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ÖgeImpacts of climate change on tourism sector in Turkey: Challenges and future prospects(Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, 2021) Aygün, Aysun ; Baycan, Tüzin ; 663244 ; Şehir ve Bölge PlanlamaTourism has 10.4% contribution to global GDP and 10% to global employment that makes it one of the most critical economic sectors. The tourist motivation, destination choices and travel time decisions are the most questioned issues in tourism literature while climate change may change those dynamics. Climate is one of the factors in travel timing, type of tourism activities, destination and length of stay. Climatic attributes are especially important on climate sensitive and climate dependent tourism activities that require specific climate conditions. For example, winter tourism requires specific snow cover and weather conditions for sports tourism, trekking, hiking or climbing are preferred under specific climate conditions that ensures safety. The changing climate is expected to have inevitable social, economic and environmental consequences which the tourism sector itself will also face. Climate change and tourism have two-sided interaction; tourism activities especially transportation demand generate a great amount of greenhouse gas emission, on the other hand, tourism activities are highly sensitive to climate change impacts. Climate change will cause warmer temperatures, extreme weather events and precipitation change. The first impact, temperature increase, is expected to affect today's popular destinations that are attractive for their pleasant weather. Due to the increased temperatures those regions are projected to be too hot for tourism activities, have poor climate conditions and low comfort levels, consequently lose their attractive feature or the peak season of tourism may shift from summer season to fall and spring. On the other hand, northern regions are expected to have moderate and warm weather conditions that are suitable for tourism activities. This situation may create new popular destinations in the global market. The precipitation is less likely preferred by tourists during their visitation. The sudden, unexpected and strong variations on precipitation generates uncertainty and affects the tourist preferences. Extreme weather event is a threat to tourism destinations due to the safety and security concerns. Climate change will also have negative impacts on tourism industry such as loss of resources, biodiversity, less snow cover, sea level rise. The natural heritage, beaches and environmental assets are the important components of destination attributes that contribute to attractiveness and competitiveness. The loss of these attributes is expected to influence the preferences of tourists. The changing pattern of tourism flow and impacts on local tourism markets inevitably generate socio-economic problems in those tourism dependent countries such as unemployment, decreased income and poverty. Therefore, investigating climate change impacts on tourism gains great importance to adapt the climate change, eliminate the risks and benefit the potentials. Today, Turkey is one of the most popular tourism destinations in the world. Turkey has climatic, natural and environmental attractions that successfully have been valued in the tourism sector and achieved to be recognized in the global market. Turkey is vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location in the Mediterranean region. Climate change projections on Turkey deduce 2-60C increase in temperatures especially in the summer period, 20% decrease in precipitation, and a longer warm period. According to researches, climate change will have adverse impacts on tourism sector, the popularity of the country as a tourism destination will diminish due to sea level rise, extreme weather events, the extreme hot waves, and loss of biodiversity and natural values. Both summer and winter tourism will be affected by these changes. The national strategic climate change plans mention the climate change impacts on tourism sector. There are also some studies focusing of specific destinations or tourism types and investigating climate change impacts on these areas and activities. Although the awareness of vulnerability of tourism sector to climate change has increased, there has no constructive step taken yet at national, local or academic level. A comprehensive perspective is missing in policy and strategy papers and literature. The impacts of climate change should be defined for each region, risks should be revealed and development strategies should be developed to eliminate the risks, mitigate the impacts and adapt to the changing conditions. From this point of view, this study mainly focused on: (i) "What are the impacts of climate change on tourism sector in Turkey in terms of regional challenges, international demand and socio-economic dynamics?" (ii) "How should be the roadmap of the sectoral development to manage climate change challenges; eliminate risks and benefit opportunities without jeopardizing the socio-economic structure?" The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of climate change on international tourism in popular tourism destinations in Turkey and provide a strategic roadmap. The objectives of the study are; (i) evaluating physical impacts of climate change in terms of changing comfort levels on popular tourism destinations in Turkey, (ii) investigating the reflections of these impacts on number of tourists, income and employment,(iii) revealing the different exposures to climate change by comparing different tourism destinations that have different climatic, geographic conditions as well as offer different tourism attractions and tourism types in Turkey, (iv) determining the most vulnerable tourism regions to climate change impacts, (v) addressing high risk regions (vi) highlighting opportunities that can be turned into benefit of destination's tourism industry, (vii) providing a tentative strategic framework for climate change responsive tourism development. In order to achieve this purpose, 30 tourism destinations in Turkey are included in the case study. While determining the case study cities, the number of tourists they host, their role in the Tourism Strategy Plan, tourism activities and geographic locations are taken into consideration. From different geographical regions, with different climatic character, having different tourism activities and attractiveness, 30 cities were selected. In order to evaluate the physical impacts of climate change on climate comfort levels, Tourism Climate Index (TCI) is used. The results of TCI analysis were used to estimate the potential impacts of climate change on international tourism demand. The model developed by Hein et al. (2009) assumes the climate as the only variable changing over time and the rest constant is used. The comparison between base year (1963-2017) and projected year (2019-2100) is revealed in terms of both climate comfort levels and the number of tourist/tourism demand. Finally, the socio-economic impacts of changing demand are evaluated by adapting Input-Output Analysis for national assessment and Ryan Short Cut Model for regional assessment. The results of the study reveal that the climate comfort levels are expected to decrease in the future up to 2100 comparing with today's climate conditions especially in summer period. On the other hand, comfort levels are projected to increase in winter period. Moreover, the impacts are different for each geographic region. There are highly vulnerable cities especially in coast line, and there are more resilient cities mostly located inland. Relationally, the demand in summer period is expected to decrease while the demand in winter is expected to increase. The coastal region is expected to be impacted negatively while inner Anatolia impacted slightly positive or neutral. Moreover, the seasonal shift is the most important outcome of the changing climate. The coastal tourism-dependent cities will be the most vulnerable areas under new climatic conditions. The socio-economic impacts of changing climatic conditions will be more intense for those tourism-dependent cities. The results reveal the regional opportunities for tourism investments and alternative tourism development. They also address the vulnerabilities and risks that can be managed through adaptation and mitigation strategies. Regarding these projected consequences, a proposal for climate change responsive tourism development plan is provided at the end of the study. This study highlights the climate change and tourism interaction, the impacts of climate change on Turkey's tourism industry from a comprehensive, comparative and multi-dimensional perspective and provides a roadmap to manage climate change impacts by revealing the regional potentials and vulnerabilities.
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ÖgeMeasuring regional innovation performance in turkey(Graduate School, 2022-12-23) Özen, Berna Sezen ; Baycan, Tüzin ; 502122803 ; Urban and Regional PlanningInnovation Systems is an effective tool for examining the national and regional economies and policy-making. Although there are some studies on regional innovation measurement for Turkey, there has not been any study found focusing on the transitions through different time periods at the NUTS-3 level. The purpose of the thesis is (i) to evaluate the general status of the innovation performance of Turkey in international and national scales, (ii) to focus mainly on measuring and mapping regional innovation performances in Turkey by providing a temporal dynamic analysis of transitions of the regions (at NUTS-3 level) from one state of innovative performance to another over time from 2000 to 2017 based on the EU-defined performance grouping as innovation leaders, strong innovators, moderate innovators and modest innovators, (iii) to demonstrate in which issues the similarities and/or differences of the innovation performances occur within the regions and at interregional levels, (iv) to determine the factors related to these innovation performances and (v) to create related policies and strategies for establishing and managing an effective innovation system. Focusing on the intellectual assets, Markov Chains and Shorrocks Trace indices have revealed that there are regional disparities (between (i) regions located in the east and west of the country, (ii) metropolitan and non-metropolitan regions, (iii) high-developed and relatively less-developed regions). Five different panel data models were performed to identify the determinants of the innovation performances of the innovation leaders. These econometric models revealed that different innovation indicators may differently affect the different types of intellectual assets.
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ÖgeNew forms of the creative economy: Creative hubs in Istanbul(Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, 2021) Parlak, Meltem ; Baycan, Tüzin ; 709849 ; Şehir ve Bölge PlanlamaGlobalization, development of information and communication technology (ICT) and widespread Internet access have led to profound changes in the cities of the 21st century. The effects of these changes are clearly visible in the economies of cities as well as the physical spaces and social relations in cities that evolve as a result of economic changes. Creativity and innovation play a crucial role in the resulting new economic landscape. The new economic landscape, which is also referred to as flexible specialization, post-fordism and the knowledge economy, is focused on high-level financial services, technology-intensive and knowledge-based firms and institutions, and cultural and leisure activities. Thus, creative industries are one of the most important driving forces of economic growth and the new economy. Creative industries require highly educated, knowledge-intensive labor. Changes in the basic inputs of the economy and the resulting labor profile also bring about changes in physical spaces. Certain cities and areas come to the forefront where the highly educated, knowledge-intensive labor is concentrated. Therefore, gaining the upper hand in competition among cities and formulating strategies and new approaches to offer attractive benefits and possibilities for the creative labor have become more important than ever. These strategies involve a multi-dimensional approach which requires making investments into enterprises, human capital and infrastructure. Such an approach is based on both physical and social infrastructure investments that can promote diversity, secure equal rights and freedom of people, stimulate collaboration and support cultural vibrancy. Creative hubs emerge out of the physical and social changes brought about by the creative economy. The labor profile required by the new economy that is characterized by concepts such as creativity, entrepreneurship and collaboration come with new requirements. And these requirements lead to new forms of working. The labor of a creative economy consists of communities that work under flexible conditions and are able to work remotely, and include freelancers, entrepreneurs and microbusinesses. From this point of view, creative hubs create the physical and social spaces where this type of labor can come together, work together, collaborate, engage in exchange of knowledge and establish new relation networks. Therefore, it is essential that we understand how these workspaces emerge, examine their properties, grasp their potential, and understand the changes that they trigger in cities. Focused on creative hubs, the objective of this thesis study is to conduct a multi- dimensional review of creative hubs, which emerge during development of a creative economy, by covering their physical and social aspects, and present the spatial relation that they establish with cities. For this purpose, first the circumstances that lead to emerge of these new-type of workspaces have been examined. The changes that took place in the economy at the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century as well as the emergence of new economy have been scrutinized. Properties of the creative economy, which appeared as information and technology gained more importance and creativity became a key component of economy, have been reviewed. Concepts such as creative cities and creative clusters have been addressed that place greater emphasize on the importance of human capital and enable the flexible, tolerating, cosmopolitan and face-to-face relationships needed by the labor of the new economy, and allow such relationships to be utilized to create new ideas and develop new products, services and organizations. Lastly, creative hubs, which are next- generation workspaces where freelancers, remote workers, entrepreneurs and start-ups convene, produce, work and do business together, have been reviewed. Under the umbrella of creative hubs, several concepts such as co-working spaces, incubation centers, makerspaces and labs (e.g. fablabs, innovation centers, city labs, design labs, augmented reality labs etc.) have been addressed This thesis study covers the sample creative hubs that are located in Istanbul. Istanbul is the leading center of Turkey in terms of creative economy. In this context, it is important to reveal the potential of Istanbul for creative economy. Therefore, a chronological review of the changes in the land use structure in Istanbul has been conducted in connection with the city's economy. Then, the effects of city's existing economic structure on the land use are presented. Analysis of Istanbul's creative economy has provided useful guidance to evaluate spatial distribution of creative hubs in the city. This analysis has been conducted based on the data obtained during the field research. The data was obtained through in-depth surveys conducted with the managers and founders of the creative hubs. Deskwork, observations made during the field research, social media accounts of creative hubs and findings related to geographic data have also been used as part of the method. Research questions and the survey questions have been formulated around the 4 main themes, i.e. Structure, Focus, Services and Values. The 8 research questions which guided the study have also been addressed in this context. With a sample of co-working spaces, incubation centers, makerspaces and labs which fall into the definition of creative hub set out for the purposes of the thesis, a total of 49 surveys were conducted. The 49 creative hubs in the data set have a total of 117 locations, including their branches throughout the city. Geographic information system data has been utilized for the section on spatial distribution. For the geographic distribution section, data on 54 creative hubs, with a total of 129 locations in the city, has been used. The research results show that the majority of creative hubs are private initiatives that emerged during the last 10 years. Majority of the creative hub users are aged 21-40 years. Most of the users within this age group are from the Generation Y. One of the most important findings of the thesis study is that it has shown the relation between creative economy and creative hubs. All of the top 10 sectors represented in creative hubs belong to creative industries. The majority of co-working space members consists of people working on software projects. Similarly, most of the projects in incubation centers consist of information and communication technology projects. A significant portion of people and sectors in creative hubs work in creative sectors, and this is reflected in the user profile. Freelancers, entrepreneurs and microbusinesses make up the common users of creative hubs. Labor in the creative economy has flexible work conditions. Therefore, creative hubs also offer flexible and versatile possibilities to their users. Creative hubs provide their users with basic physical services, such as desks, chairs, Internet access, use of space and tools, which are made available during different hours. However, non-physical services are the ones that set creative hubs apart from others. Co-existence and physical proximity allow interactions, knowledge transfer and new business opportunities. Non-physical services provided by creative hubs include social possibilities such as developing relation networks, social interaction, mentorship, brainstorming, knowledge and skill sharing. Creative hubs are distinguished from other workspaces based on the social possibilities brought about by sharing of physical space. This also reflects the basic motivation behind the emergence of creative hubs. It has been found out that most of the founders of creative hubs decided on founding such an organization in order to bring together like-minded people and that their decisions were based on the prior experiences that the founders had during their own business development processes. Spatial distribution of creative hubs in the city is consistent with the location selections of existing finance and high-level service companies in the city. Creative hubs in the city, which emerged during the last 10 years and showed a particularly sharp increase during the last 5 years, are concentrated in the office buildings located in the city's central business district. This area is, at the same time, the most preferred location of sectors in the creative industries, and it is accessible and offers rich offer of cultural events. The properties and advantages of this area affect the location selection of creative hubs. Proximity to the central business district and proximity to public transport are the leading criteria that founders of creative hubs consider when making a location selection decision. Identity of the founders is another factor that affects location selection. It has been found out that the space provided by universities, local governments and public sector plays an important role in location selection of creative hubs. Another striking finding related to spatial distribution is that creative hubs also select certain buildings such as airports, old industrial buildings and stadiums and use them in an innovative way. Results of the analysis on the status of creative hubs in Istanbul show that the next- generation workspaces, which emerge in line with the development of creative economy and are based on concepts such as collaboration, networking and shared resources, are in an upward trend. Presence of creative hubs in the city plays a key role in developing creative economy and increasing information and technology production. Based on the information obtained from analyses, a series of recommendations have been formulated which can help development of creative hubs and the creative economy in Istanbul. These recommendations involve a multi- dimensional perspective and require a long-term corporate commitment that is open to collaboration.