Enhancing building resilience to climate change based on analysis of physical indicators: Çeliktepe case

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant challenge to urban environments worldwide, particularly affecting informal settlements often characterized by inadequate infrastructure and vulnerable building conditions. As cities like Istanbul expand and face the escalating impacts of climate change, enhancing the resilience of these areas becomes crucial. This thesis focuses on improving resilience to climate change, specifically examining the physical indicators that influence resilience in informal settlements, using Istanbul's Çeliktepe district as a case study. The research addresses key questions essential to understanding and enhancing urban resilience in informal settlements: What are the critical physical indicators that most significantly affect the resilience of buildings against climate change? How do these indicators interact in the specific context of Çeliktepe? What strategic interventions can be developed based on these indicators to improve resilience? The study employs a mixed-method approach combining qualitative and quantitative analyses to answer these questions. The primary analytical tool used is the Analytic Network Process (ANP), which categorizes physical indicators into five principal classes: Structural and Built Environment, Spatial Characteristics and Land Use Patterns, Urban Infrastructure and Networks, Urban Open and Green Spaces, and Demographic and Hazard Profiles. The ANP analysis reveals that the structural and built environment, along with urban infrastructure and networks, are the most influential factors in determining the physical resilience of buildings in Çeliktepe. The research provides a comprehensive examination of Çeliktepe's vulnerabilities and strengths, offering a detailed understanding of the district's conditions. Findings indicate that Çeliktepe's resilience is heavily influenced by factors such as building age, quality, construction type, and infrastructure condition. The study also highlights the importance of managing hazardous land use and ensuring robust critical infrastructure to enhance overall resilience. Data collection involved extensive on-site observations and systematic data acquisition from municipal sources. Field assessments evaluated the structural integrity of buildings and the resilience of key infrastructure elements, such as electricity networks and drainage systems. Additionally, the study analyzed existing building codes, infrastructure capacities, and historical climate data to assess their adequacy in supporting resilience under projected climate scenarios. The study also maps land use patterns and identifies areas within Çeliktepe most vulnerable to extreme weather events, such as floods and heatwaves. By assessing the structural resilience of buildings and the capacity of critical infrastructure to withstand climate impacts, the research provides valuable insights for urban planners, policymakers, and stakeholders involved in urban development and climate adaptation strategies. These findings lay a solid foundation for future research and practical applications. Future studies could expand the range of indicators, involve a broader group of experts, and develop a comprehensive evaluation system to assign resilience scores to various urban indicators. Such a system could enable more precise assessments of urban resilience and guide targeted interventions to enhance the resilience of informal settlements like Çeliktepe. In conclusion, this thesis significantly contributes to urban resilience by offering a detailed analysis of the physical indicators that affect the resilience of informal settlements to climate change. The insights gained are expected to inform future urban planning efforts and support the development of strategic approaches to mitigate climate change impacts and protect vulnerable urban communities.