Maximizing daily rainfall prediction accuracy with maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform-based machine learning models

Abstract

Rainfall is an important phenomenon for various aspects of human life and the environment. Accurate prediction of rainfall is crucial for a wide range of sectors, including agriculture, water resources management, energy production, disaster management and many more. The ability to predict rainfall in an accurate fashion enables stakeholders to make informed decisions and take necessary actions to mitigate the impacts of natural disasters, water scarcity and other issues related to rainfall. In addition, advances in rainfall prediction technologies have the potential to contribute to sustainable water management and the preservation of water resources by providing the necessary information for decision-makers to plan and implement effective water management strategies. Hence, it is important to continuously improve the accuracy of rainfall prediction. In this paper, the integration of the maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) and machine learning algorithms for daily rainfall prediction is proposed. The main objective of this study is to investigate the potential of combining MODWT with various machine-learning algorithms to increase the accuracy of rainfall prediction and extend the forecast time horizon to 3 days. In addition, the performances of the proposed hybrid models are contrasted with the models hybridized with commonly used discrete wavelet transform (DWT) algorithms in the literature. For this, daily rainfall raw data from three rainfall observation stations located in Turkey are used. The results show that the proposed hybrid MODWT models can effectively improve the accuracy of precipitation forecasting, based on model evaluation measures such as mean square error (MSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (CE). Accordingly, it can be concluded that the integration of MODWT and machine learning algorithms have the potential to revolutionize the field of daily rainfall prediction.