Analysis of sea ice concentration around Horseshoe Island in Marguerite Bay with satellite imagery

Abstract

Although the Antarctic Peninsula is one of the Polar Regions most affected by global climate change, changes in sea ice formation in the Southern Ocean also play a dynamic role in this change as a crucial element in all other scientific measurements and ecosystem. Sea ice is of great importance for humans, underwater life and the creatures on which it serves as a hunting ground. This importance develops in many different areas ranging from the reflection of the sun's rays back on the albedo scale to the intense proliferation of plankton to maintain the marine ecosystem. The formation of sea ice, especially around Horseshoe Island and in the Marguerite Bay, affects the logistics and scientific processes of Turkish scientific studies in Antarctica. These effects are shaped both economically and periodically by the formation of sea ice and its properties. Since the planning of the deployment of the Turkish Scientific Research Station in Antarctic Peninsula, which is the strategic target of Türkiye for Antarctic research, the region's properties were need to analyze in case of sea ice conditions of the area for further research and logistic operations in the waterways. In this study, it is aimed to periodically reveal the formation of new/old ice in the region with the minimum and maximum coverage areas by using the data of the satellite technology that has developed and grew in recent years. Over 8000 satellite images of NASA's Terra / Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument (MODIS), were collected and examined especially for the years between 2000 and 2022. Latest marine traffic tracks of the area analyzed to understand maritime needs for the natural or artificial ports / berths for the future vessel operations. For that reason there are four areas selected to analyze; the approach site from West direction to Horseshoe Island, Sally Cove which host old British Station called Base Y, Lystad Bay which host Turkish Scientific Research Camp and Gaul Cove which lies in the Eastern side of the Horseshoe Island. The research results from satellite images shows that the recent years are not let the occurence of multiyear sea ice in the area. The most productive months for ship navigation seen as March, February, April and January for any kind of vessel due to plenty of sea ice free days. The study shed lights on the upcoming vessel selection according to appropriate polar class which can navigate safely during expeditions to Horseshoe Island by monthly sea ice conditions. The average number of sea ice free days seems increasing due to increasing temperature trends. However, the cloudiness is high and clear skies only counted as 38 days in average for the last twenty years. It shows that the optical satellite usage for the area is not suitable. The outputs of this research will shed light on the vessel navigation to ensure safety and effectiveness of the expeditions to Horseshoe Island.