A conceptual Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) framework for building resilience to satellite failures

Abstract

Disasters, whether natural or man-made, pose significant threats to life, property, and environmental integrity. The increasing reliance on space-based systems, particularly satellites, has introduced a new category of risks known as space-based disasters. These encompass phenomena such as solar storms, space debris, and satellite system failures, each capable of disrupting essential services like communication, navigation, meteorology, and environmental surveillance. The growing density of objects in Earth's orbit highlights the urgency to enhance the resilience of our space infrastructure. Traditional disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies have focused on terrestrial calamities like floods and earthquakes, but the unique challenges presented by spacebased disasters necessitate tailored approaches. Despite the critical role of satellites, there is a significant gap in understanding the risks they face and the optimal strategies to mitigate these risks. This study, conducted alongside research on space debris by Sajjad Jokar, specifically focuses on satellite failures, aiming to develop a comprehensive DRR framework to address these issues. The increasing risks of spacebased disasters, especially satellite failures, highlight the vulnerability of this infrastructure, with potential disruptions posing threats to public safety and national security. This research aims to bridge this gap by identifying and prioritizing satellite failure risks and developing a tailored DRR framework to enhance the resilience of our space infrastructure. The primary objective is to deepen the understanding of space-based disasters, particularly satellite failures, and refine DRR strategies to better manage these incidents. Specific goals include identifying and prioritizing the most pressing satellite failure risks and developing a DRR framework specifically designed to address these risks. The study employs a conceptual framework based on the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, guiding the identification, assessment, and mitigation of risks associated with satellite failures. The research methodology includes a thorough literature review, expert surveys, and the application of the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to prioritize risks. Data was collected through surveys distributed to experts in the field, and the analysis involved using the TOPSIS technique to evaluate and prioritize risks based on their likelihood, potential impacts, and existing mitigation measures. This structured approach ensures a comprehensive assessment of satellite failure risks and informs the development of the DRR framework.