Construction project risk management under contingent circumstances: a case study during Ukraine-Russia war

Abstract

Construction projects implemented under contingent circumstances characterised by geopolitical instability, economic sanctions, supply chain fragmentation, and technological isolation operate within risk environments that depart substantially from conventional project settings. While traditional construction risk management frameworks assume relative stability in political, financial, and logistical conditions, such assumptions collapse when external shocks disrupt global market integration, labour mobility, and digital infrastructures. Existing literature on construction under instability has largely focused on post conflict reconstruction or projects situated within active combat zones, yet comparatively little is known about how large-scale projects continue to function when exposed to indirect but systemic conflict induced disruptions. Addressing this gap, the present study synthesizes three decades of scholarly work to develop a multidimensional typology of risks arising under contingent circumstances, categorised into political and security, supply chain, financial and contractual, operational and workforce, technological, and environmental domains. This theoretical framework is applied to an indepth case study of the Moscow Headquarters Project, an ongoing EPC development undertaken during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although the project was located outside the physical theatre of hostilities, it experienced profound systemic disruptions including sanctions driven procurement paralysis, currency volatility, logistical rerouting, workforce instability, and digital embargoes that disabled access to essential software ecosystems. These disruptions were further compounded by employer-initiated design changes, delayed approvals, and the emergence of claim events related to both direct and indirect cost components. Through detailed examination of project documentation, contractual processes, labour records, procurement logs, and claim dossiers, the study identifies how these layered risks materialised and evaluates the contractor's adaptive responses. Findings reveal that successful mitigation depended heavily on organisational resilience, global sourcing capacity, financial robustness, and the rapid development of alternative digital and logistical infrastructures. Effective strategies included early procurement, supplier diversification, internal software development, and targeted workforce stabilisation measures, whereas shortcomings emerged in pre-war procurement dependence, technological path dependency, and delayed financial adjustments. The study demonstrates that contingent circumstances generate hybrid risk conditions that transcend traditional theories of project uncertainty, requiring adaptive, context specific, and resilience-oriented management approaches. By integrating empirical evidence with conceptual frameworks, this research offers substantive theoretical and practical contributions. It advances understanding of how conflict induced systemic disruptions reshape construction project delivery, refines risk categorisation for non-kinetic conflict environments, and provides actionable guidance for contractors operating under geopolitical and economic instability. The study ultimately underscores the growing necessity for adaptive risk management paradigms capable of withstanding globalised disruptions in contemporary construction practice.