Girdi-çıktı tabloları ile Türkiye'de inşaat sektörünün analizi

Abstract

Gelişmekte alan bir ülke olarak Türkiye'de İnşaat Sektörü gerek konut yapımı, gerekse endüstriyel tesisler bayındırlık hizmetleri ve yol, köprü, baraj, v.b. gibi her çeşit altyapı hizmetlerinin kurulması, onarımı ve yenileme çalışmaları ile bir yandan ülke kalkınmasında önemli bir rol oynarken, öte yandan ekonomi içerisindeki diğer sektörlerden yaptığı girdi alımları ile bu sektör leri üretim yapmaya yöneltmektedir. Analizde inşaat sektörünün diğer sektörlerle olan doğrudan ve dolaylı ilişkileri incelenerek bu sektörün Türkiye ekonomisi içindeki konumu irdelenmeye çalışılmış tır. Bu amaçla sektörlerarası ilişkilerin açıklanmasında bilinen en önemli araçlardan olan ve DİE tarafından ha zırlanan Endüstrilerarası İşlemler ile Dışalım Akım Tab loları kullanılmıştır. Ancak en son 1989 yılında yayım lanan tablolar 1985 yılı verilerini içermektedir. Kuş kusuz bu durum sektörün genel özelliklerinin açıklanma sında bir engel oluşturmamasına rağmen çalışmanın bir 2 anlamda güncel olmaması anlamına gelebilir. Bu nedenle özellikle ilk bölümde inşaat sektörünün Türkiye ekonomisi içerisindeki genel görünümü açıklanırken 199G yılına ka dar olan bilgilere de yer verilerek, bir ölçüde de olsa bu eksiklik giderilmeye çalışılmıştır. Analizde İnşaat Sektörünün hem. yurtiçi bağ etkileri, bu etkileri oluşturan çarpanlar aracılığı ile incelenmeye çalışılmış; hem de sektörlerarası ilişkiler sonucu ortaya çıkan ithal bağımlılığı ve buna koşut olarak son talebin etkisi irdelenmiştir. Analiz beş bölümden oluşmaktadır: İlk bölümde İnşaat Sektörünün Türk Ekonomisi içindeki yeri ve önemi. kısaca açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır. İkinci bölümde Girdi-Çıktı Analizinin teorik yapısı ortaya konmuştur. Üçüncü bölüm İnşaat Sektörünün sektörel ilişkileri sırasında ortaya çıkan toplam etkilerin çarpanlarına ayrılarak incelenme sine dayanmaktadır. Dördüncü Bölümde ise İnşaat Sektörü nün ithal bağımlılığı irdelenmeye çalışılmıştır. San ola rak Üçüncü ve'ıDördüncü bölümde elde edilen bulgular "Sonuç" bölümünde yorumlanmıştır.

In this paper the structure Df construction sector in Turkish economy is tried to be analysed. All economic relations are stood on a very sensitive balance, and all the relations in an economy occur from sectoral transactions. One important characteristic of all sectors' productions is that non of them can be considered independent from others. In another words every sector's production depends on other sectors' products in terms of inputs and outputs. A possible crisis in one or more sectors may reflect their problems to the economy and therefore the economy may be driven into a stagflation or bottleneck period. In this sense it can be said that all the economic acti vities are the composition of the sectoral activities. When the construction sector is taken as a whole with construction activities of roads, housings, indust rial buildings and all kind of infrastructure and prosperity services, it can easily be seen that this sector has taken quite a large place in the economy. For accomplishing all these construction activities, construction sector needs to go into strong relations with the other sectors in the economy, because this sector's production activities mostly lean on the utilization of inputs which are the outputs of other sectors. In other words the magnitude of construction sector's interindustiral relations is quite significant to show its importance in the economy. In this sense the analysis is concentrated on the construction sector's interindustrial relations. Vlll Interindustrial Transaction Tables are the mast usefull tools that show the sectoral transactions in an economy. In this analysis tuo tables are used; one of them is 1985 Interindustry Transaction Matrix of Turkey and the other one is 1985 Imports Flow Matrix of Turkey The analysis consists of five chapters; in the first one a brief evaluation of construction sector in Turkey is given, the second one deals with the theoretical structure of classical input-output method. In chapter three the total effects which.come out during the sectoral transactions are examined by decomposing them intD their components and in chapter four the import dependency is dealt with in terms of construction sector and the whole economy as well. Finally the findings that come out of the third and the fourth chapters are discussed in the conclusion. The mast specific characteristic of construction sector is that it uses more labour force than other sectors. Thus, especially in devoloping countries construction sector decreases unemployment with supplying new job opportunities to increasing population and matches the housing demand which also increases parallel to the population. In this sense construction sector might be considered as a key sector that more unskilled labour force can be employed by the demand of construc tion sector. A series of economic decisions have been taken in 2k th of Jan. 19 80, in order to free the economy of stag flation and driving it into a stabilization period. After that, although especially the productive part of industry went in to a growth period, same progress couldn't be seen in the construction sector. As a matter of fact in Development Plans Periods, The annual avarege growth rates of Construction Sector were as below. Development Plans Periods (Years)__ I. Period (1963-1967) II. Period( 1968-1972) III. Period (1973-1977) (1978-1985) Annual Avarage Growth Rates (%)_ 8.2 5.8 7.1 1.5 IX Between the years of 1978-1985 which also includes the fourth developing plan period, the annual avarege growth rate couldn't get higher than 1.5 percent, And after 1985 theannual growth rate was about % 3.8. Dn the other hand according to The National Income Accounts with fixed prices, made by the State Institute of Statistics, while construction sector's share in The Gross National Income was between % 5.7-5.9 in the period of 1971-1978, it has started to increase after the year of 1978 and in 198G it has reached the highest value of % 6.4. But after 1980 it has started to decrease ; The tight money-credit strategies and the utiliza tion of the insufficient sources in the short-term investments, have limited the construction sector's progress. The stagflation period seen in the construction sector was more significant especially in the housing investments. Altough in the first, the second and the third development plans periods the share of housing investments in the total investments was executed over the goals, after the year of 1978 it started to decrease till 1986 and after that year it again started to increase : Years The Shere of Housing Investments in the Total Investments (%) 1978 19 1982 13 1983 14 1984 15 1985 16 1986 15 1987 20 1988 26 1989 28 1990 24 The analysis is mostly concentrated on the construction sector's relations with other sectors in the economy. In this sense the work is based on the input-output techniques and the using of interindustrial tables. The aforementioned 1985 Interindustrial Transaction Matrix consists of both domestic sectoral transactions and imports as well. Therefore construction sector's domestic transactions and the import dependency are dealt with. To examine domestic transactions, by extracting of 1985 Import Flow Matrix from 1985 Interindustry Transaction Matrix; 1985 Domestic Interin dustry Transaction Matrix is constructed. The original Interindustrial Transactions and Import Flow Matrixes are in (64, 64) dimensions. It was going to be so difficult to work out these kinds of big tables that both of them have been aggregated as 19 sectors. The aggregation has been made with regard to the similarity in sectors' activities. Below the aggregated sectors are given in order; 1- Construction 2- Agriculture 3- Mining if- Food-Beverages-Tobbacco 5- Textiles 6- Wood Products 7- Chemicals 8- Petroluem & Derivatives 9- Rubber & Plastic 10- Glass & Cement 11- Iron & Steel 12- Metal Products 13- Machinary (Nonelectrical) 14- Electrical Machinary 15- Transport Equipments 16- Electricity -Qas-UJater 17- Other Manufacturing 18- Services In these matrix tables an interesting point about construction sector is that the row elements which belong to this sector are all zero. In other words construction sector doesn't supply input to any sector in the economy. But on the other hand it demands input to almost every sector for utilizing in its activities. XI It can also be seen in the Leontief Inverse Matrix mhich shows the Forward and Backward Linkages in every sector, that construction sector doesn't have a Forward Linkage though it has a Backward Linkage Effect which is above the average among 19 sectors. In a descending order of the Backward Linkages, Construction Sector's Backward Linkage Effect is on the eighth rank among 19 sectors. Aforementioned forward and backward linkages are the total effects which came out as a result of sectoral relations. In chapter three these effects are analised by decomposing them into their components. Three kind of effects, namely, Own Direct Effects, Cross Effects and Own Indirect Effects, will be mentioned here. Because the analysis method emphasizes the transactions among the industry groups, strategic ones of these should be identified. In this analysis two kinds of strategic groups can be mentioned: The first one is the Construction Sector that the analysis is concentrated on, and the other one includes the rest of the sectors in the economy. According to these strategic groups Leontief Inverse Matrix is partitioned too. After this short explanation, now we can briefly define the aforementioned three effects: By own Direct Effect; the impact of an injection made into a group on itself is meant. In other words Own Direct Effects captures the transactions in the same industry group. On the other hand Own Indirect Effects consist of the impact of an injection made into a group on itself via the other group. In other words a direct injection made into an industry group will influence the sectors of other industry group and with this first injection the latter industry group may partly influence the first industry group in return. Add finally Cross Effects are the effects of an injection into a group on the other group after all own effects are accounted for. xn When M1 (Own Direct Effects Matrix) and M3 (Own Indirect Effects Matrix) are examined, it can be seen that Construction Sector is insensitive in terms of these effects. Thus in a way it can be said that Construction Sector's Cross Effects consist of its Total Backward Linkages. In chapter four; the import dependency is tried to be set up in the same way as the domestic interindustrial transactions that we tried to explain briefly above. As it can be seen from the 1985 Import Flow Matrix construction sector doesn't directly import. But on the other hand most of the inputs that construction sector demands from other sectors in the economy is imparted. In other words construction sector has an indirect import dependency. If the Forward and Backward Linkages of imports are going to be analysed from the Inverse Matrix of Import (R) it can be seen that construction sector has nil Forward Import Linkage though it has strong Backward Linkage of Import same as in domestic relations. In a descending order of Backward Linkage Effects of Imports, Construction Sector takes place in the twelfth rank among 19 sectors. Another important subject should be considered as sectors' final demands. Especially it is descriptive in the construction sector. For a better observation a new method called "Theoretical Abstraction" is used to find out" The New Hind of Import Linkage Effects" which was introduced by Schultz and later developed by Cells. In this method, first of all the row and the column elements of a sector that is going to be examined, are taken out from (A) Matrix (Input-Output Coefficients Matrix). This sector's production difference before and after this "Theoretical Abstraction " gives the sector's total effects. This effect which is called "Total Effect" can be decomposed to Backward and Forward Linkage Effects. Due to the Construction Sector's nil Forward Linkage Effects, only "The New Kind of Backward Linkage Effects of Imparts " are dealt with. In this sense "Cella Import Xlll Backward Linkage Coefficients" are counted in terms of every sector in the economy. The multiplication made between Cella Import Backward Linkage Coefficients and the final demands of sectors gives" The New Kind of Backward Linkage Effects of Import". A comparison made between the descending order of Cella Import Coefficients of Backward Linkages and the same order of Import Backward Linkages previously counted, shows that there is not an important difference between the both ranks of sectors. However according to a descending order of the previously counted backward Linkage of import, Construction Sector was on the twelfth rank; with the same sort of order made among the Cella Coefficients this sector this time with a small difference takes place only on the eleventh rank. But on the other hand a similar comparison made between The New Kind of Backward Linkage Effects of Import and The Cella Import Coefficients of Backward Linkage exposes a different view. Most of the sectors get different ranks in The New Hind of Backward Linkage Effects of Imports in comparison with the same sort of Cella Coefficients. This is mare significant in construction sector. With the impact of construction sector's final demand this sector is risen to the first rank in the descending order of The New Hind of Backward Linkage Effect of import. The important relationship of construction sector either with other sectors or especially with the housings and infrastructure services, and with the high backward linkage effects, Constructions Sector can be considered as a key sector in all economies. As a developing country in Turkey, Construction Sector's importance can not be ignored. With it's high backward linkages construction sector trails behind the other sectors in the economy and thus it gives the whole economy vitality.