Türkiye`deki Yabancı Portföy Yatırımları

Abstract

Son yıllarda hızla yaşanan globalleşme, ülkelerin sermaye piyasalarını da etkilemiş, bir çok ülkenin sermaye piyasalarının içice geçmesi sonucunu da beraberinde getirmiştir. Ülkelerin gelişmişlik düzeylerine, sosyo-politik, sosyo-ekonomik özelliklerine göre fon fazlası verenler ile fon açığı bulunanlar arasında kaynak transferleri büyük önem taşımaktadır. Sermaye piyasaları gelişmiş ülkelerdeki fon sahipleri, sermaye piyasası gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki menkul kıymetlerin, yüksek risk-yüksek getiri olanaklarından yararlanmak istemeleri yüzünden önemli bir kaynağın gelişmekte olan sermaye piyasalarına yönelmesini sağlamıştır. Modern Portföy Kuramının "Riskin minimum, getirinin maximum kılınması" olasılığının uluslararası anlamda daha da arttırılabileceğinin anlaşılmış olması, uluslararası sermaye yatırımlarının artmasında etken olmuştur. Uluslararası platformda temel işlevlerini yerine getirmeye başlayan borsamız, artık uluslararası finans merkezlerinde, güçlü alt yapısı ile dikkat çekmektedir. Bu bağlamda "Gelişmekte Olan" kategorisinden çakıp, "Gelişmiş Piyasası" statüsü kazanmaya adaydır. Yurtdışında yerleşik kişilerin, Türkiye'deki menkul kıymet yatırımlarında 1989-1995 yıllan arasında artışlar olmuştur. Ancak, dünyadaki toplam portföy yatarımları dikkate alındığında bu artış düşük seviyede kalmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, gelişmekte olan ülkelere yapılan yabancı portföy yatırımları incelenecek olup, özellikle ülkemizdeki durumu araştırılacaktır.

International capital market have once again passed through an eventful period since the last report on capital markets surveillance in September 1994. The re-evaluation of prospects for emerging markets by foreign investors, which accompanied the cyclical upswing in industrial countries in 1994 gathering momentum in the aftermath of the Mexican crisis at the end of December. One of the world's leading experts on foreign capital estimates that about 400 billion dollars' worth of foreign capital in today's terms is going to flow from the developed into the developing countries in the year 2020. That 400 billion will constitute fifty percent of total foreign capital investment in the world that year. This will only happen if the current high level of investment yield in the developing countries continues. Whether or not this forecast becomes reality depends on the developing countries recapturing, first, their productivity prior to the debt crisis and, second their figures regarding the share of foreign capital in their total investments. As public corporations were privatized and tax rates lowered, extraordinary measures were implemented to prevent tax evasion, and a number of restrictions on business were eliminated and replaced by internationally accepted rules and regulations. As these things were being done, the governments of these countries also gave international circles guarantees that the reforms were not temporary but that the new policies were permanent owing to new can sensuses achieved in society. -IX- Today, earnings increase on portfolios invested in the stocks of developed countries markets together with the stocks of emerging markets simultaneously, contrary to theory, risk decreases. Compared with a portfolio composed entirely of shares bought on American markets, a portfolio composed of twenty percent shares that have been purchased form developing country markets appears less risky. Even when the chunk of shares purchased from developing country markets is as large as 40 %, a lower-risk situation is still valid. This is a very meaningful fact of the era we are living in. Until the decade of 1980 s, in which Turkey started the liberalization movement and opened up its economy to the outside world, there were less than a 100 foreign investors in Turkey, and the total amount of foreign investment was only 228 million American Dollars. That means very few companies did invest before 1980. This was the investment made in 26 years starting from 1954 in which the Law for Encouragement of Foreign investment was passed. Today, the total amount of foreign investment has exceeded 6 billion American Dollars, and the number of foreign investors is 2700. Turkey has a special place among the developing countries, and offers more possibilities and potential than other Third World countries. The opening up of the ex-Soviet and Eeast European economies to the outside world, and the developements concerning the Turkish Republics has further provided new possibilities and opportunities for Turkey, for its trade and investment activities. - The Black see Economic Cooperation Zone Agreement has been signed. - The negotiations conducted between Turkey and EFTA countries x- have been concluded with the initiation of the Free Trade and cooperation Agrement. - And Turkey is to complete the customs union with EU in 1995 These are new conditions that provide new opportunities in addition to classic advantages of Turkey as an investment base, and the government, with an amendment in the Foreign investment Frame work Decree will free legislation, furthemore, and the necessity for permits for foreign credit and for licencing, know-haw, technology and management agreements will be abolished. The world's second best performing emerging stock market in 1993 registered huge dollar losses in 1994 due entirely to a 65 % devaluation in the Turkish lira. Volatile money markets and political instability undermined foreign confidence in the lira, while efforts to reduce Turkey's current account, budget and trade deficits were not enough to change the negative investment mood. Share prices opened 1994 on a positive note in response to tax reforms introduced by Prime Minister Tansu Çiller in January. The reforms were expected to increase the number of type-A mutual funds, which are required to hold at least 25 % of their assets in equities. Expectations for good year-end earnings and fresh capital from foreign investors created a positive investment climate in the first half on January. By late January, interest rate worries became the dominant corcern after two leading U.S credit rating agencies downgraded Turkey's foreign debt rating. Exchange rate worries triggered panic selling by both domestic and foreign institutional investors. The Turkish market registered its worst monthly performance for 1994 in February amid heavy profit-taking and fear of a currency XI- devaluation. Ciller's three-month economic austerity program, announced in April, sent prices 33 % lower during the month. In May, high inflation and disappointing first quarter earnings reports prompted investors to move funds to government paper. But the downturn was short-lived after the constitutional court announced its initial position favoring a proposed privatization bill in June. As a result, investors acquired stocks with large government-held stakes and privatization candidates. In August, news that the main oppsition party had agreed to support the privatization program under certain conditions renewed hopes that the measure would ultimately be approved by the constitutional Court, which it did on September 8. At the end of August, he Turkish Government refinanced a large T-bill issued with a new T-bill carrying a very attractive rate. The high yield sparked equity selling, with investors liquidating nearly 365 million American Dollars in shares. Emerging equity markets have long been characterized as having higher risks but also higher returns than developed equity markets. Since 1991, most investors in these markets have focused primarily on the high returns available; 1994 will be remembered for refocusing investor attention on the risks. This was a year in which many emerging markets experienced dramatic price swings and most markets ended the year at lower levels. Nonetheless, 1995 was also a year of Substantional progress in emerging markets, with important advances made in their transaction efficiency, effectiveness as capital raising mechanism and in the introduction of sophisticated investment techniques. - xn - Domestic events in individual emerging markets also impacted prices throughout the year with strong economic growth and continued political and economic reforms often counter halanced by political and economic crises. Mexico, for instance, which many investors viewed as having reached nearly "developed" status, witnessed both positive and negative political events during the year. The image of emerging markets was also tarnished in many international investors' minds by evidence of markets abuses in Russia, India, Turkey and China in 1994. Nonetheless, many emerging markets experienced quite strong returns in 1994 and were the best performing markets at the global level. At year end, out of the 20 best performing equity markets in the world, 19 were emerging markets. It is interesting to note that the leaders among these top markets were typically smaller, "pre-emerging" markets, most of which are not currently included in any of the leading indexes. In addition to liquidity gains in many markets, there has been notable improvement in setlement in most emerging markets. The introduction of improved systems at the exchange, brokerage, and custody levels, has helped improve investor confidence in the integrity of these markets. A variety of new and sophisticated instruments and techniques for emerging market investment were introduced or gained wider acceptance. For example, the use of indexation and other quantitative techniques for emerging markets grew rapidly. Volatility in underlying markets prompted investors to seek risk management vehicles and use these instruments to gain quick and efficient exposure to these markets. The use of derivatives on emerging market stocks now covers a full range of instruments, including listed index futures and options, options on individual stocks. In addition, a number of emerging markets, have or are -xm in the process of introducing, domestic equity derivative markets. It is expected that these develpoments will help enhance the liquidity and transparency of the underlying cash markets. According to preliminary World Bank estimates of net long-term financial flows to developing countries, net portfolio equity flows of about 39.5 billion American Dollars were used to buy emerging market stocks in 1994. As a conclusion, this thesis examines the events in emerging markets