Sermaye Piyasasında Hisse Senedi Değerlemede Temel Analiz Yaklaşımı Ve Şirket Değerlemesi

Çağdaş, Berk
Süreli Yayın başlığı
Süreli Yayın ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
Institute of Social Sciences
Türk sermaye piyasası son yıllarda çok hızlı bir gelişme göstermiştir. Canlı bir şekilde büyüyen bu piyasa içinde hisse senedi piyasası çok geniş bir yer kaplamaktadır. Bu piyasa içinde yer finansal araç olan hisse senedi r bir menkul değer yatırım aracı olarak ele alındığında, hisse senedi yatırımlarında iki temel sorun karsımıza çıkmaktadır. Bunlardan birincisi, hangi hisse senedine yatırım yapılacağı, ikincisi ise yatırım zamanının seçilmesi ile ilgilidir. Hangi hisse senedine yatırım yapılacağı hisse senetlerinin özellikleri, taşıdığı risk ve bu riske karşılık sağlayacağı karlılık çerçevesinde yapılacak bir analiz ile kararlastırılabilir. Bu çalışmanın büyük bir bölümü bu konuya ayrılmıştır. İkinci sorun, yatırım zamanının seçilmesi, menkul değeri (hisse senedini) satın alma durumunda en düşük fiyattan satın almanın yapılması, satış durumunda ise en yüksek fiyattan satılması koşulunun gerçekleşmesidir. Yatırım zamanının seçilmesi, hisse senedinin gerçek değerinin saptanması ile mümkün olabilecektir. O halde hisse senedi yatırımlarında optimal satış ve alış zamanının belirlenmesi için gerçek değeri belirlenmelidir ve bu da oldukça kapsamlı bir analizle ortaya çıkarılabilir. Bu analiz süreci Teael Analiz olarak adlandırılmaktadır. Temel analiz, niteliği itibariyle hisse senedi yatırımlarında yatırım analizi sürecine en makro düzeyden, genel ekonomi analizinden başlaması daha sonra firmanın ya da hisse senedi yatırımının yapılacağı firmaların bulunduğu endüstri kollarının analizini gerçekleştirmesi, en son aşamada da hisse senedi yatırımının yapılacağı firmanın analiz edilmesi süreçlerini sistemli bir şekilde yerine getirmesi sebebiyle oldukça tutarlıdır. Bu analizle saptanan gerçek değer, bir denge değeridir. Bu değer, hisse senedinin cari piyasa fiyatı İle karşılaştırılır ve hisse senedinin düşük ve aşırı değerlenmiş olup olmadığı test edilir. Düşük değerlenmiş İse hisse senedinin satın alınması, yüksek değerlenmiş ise satılması gerekir. Gerçek hisse senedi değerinin hesaplanmasına yönelik çok çeşitli yöntemler mevcuttur. Kullanılan yöntem ne olursa olsun temel analiz hisse senedi ve onu ihraç etmiş ya da edecek kuruluşla ilgili bilgilere bağlıdır. Bu bilgiler, kamuya açıklanan bilgilerden ve kamuya açıklanmamış şirket içi bilgilerden oluşur. Bilgiler piyasaya geldikçe, tahminler revize edilir ve cari piyasa fiyatı ile karşılaştırmalar yapılır. Bütün bu değerlendirmeler firma hisse senetlerine yönelik çeşitli niteliklerdeki grafik ve teknik analizlerle de bütünleştlrilmelldir.
The most comprehensive and prominant structural change In our country has been seen in the financial markets. Several kinds of precautions have been taken in order to develop and to have the capital markets reached a definite scale in which an outstanding economic development can be provided while the local banking system has progressively growing in the way of being integrated with the world wide banking system. It can speslfically be said that the arrangements made in last five years in the capital markets in Turkey have provided the sector to obtain a more dynamic structure. It is an undiscussable reality that we had a lagged system in the capital markets until the recent times when compared with both industrialized and even some developing countries. No doubth that the biggest deficiency in this point is the insufficiency in amount of the relevant publications which help practioners to gain Informative backlogs. In my opinion, the biggest gap or the most Important requirement In the finance ares as It is an obvious problem for all branches of science in Turkey, is the undeniable lack of the ability to create something, to innovate a technique that can possible be benefited by the science of finance. As has been generally seen that almost everyone who is interested in a science branch is quite used to benefit the methods applied for years. Unfortunately this Is also valid for the major of professional finance companies and even banks. Admittedly, the stock market has shown an outstanding and swiftly growing phase in our country. The stock market which has become the major focus of interest for both individual and corporate Investors has also become a well organized financing origin for companies permanently demanding funds. However, the base point of this market namely "the stock evaluation" and the issue stocks for companies have recently become extremely Important subjects in this frame. Meanwhile, it has to be strictly expressed that stock evaluation in a micro basis is rather erroneous because of the point of view which only handles the evaluation In the firm level. In such kind of a phase, ignoring of the existence of some macro economic and sectoral variables that exceed the potential of the firm and can directly change Its input/output structure, absolutely causes finding of deceptive results. Because target company is in a definite sector or industry. This industry or infra-sector is exposed to be influenced from the all macro changes due to its strategic frame. Normally this approach takes us general economy level. In that case, changes in the general economic factors influence the industries and then sectoral changes directly influence firms. In this structural phase the stocks of companies show prominant fluctuations or volatilities in the market and so directly have impacts in the mechanism of decision making for profitable investments. Since the rational purpose for investors is to make "good investments", the two global targets are, making the investments timely and with their real or most effective values. It is needed to know the real value of the stock in order to decide appropriateness of investment time. If this real value is known or estimated, It Is possible to consider the timeliness of Investment. The detailed evaluation of all kinds of information regarding the stock and firm, constitutes the essential purpose in order to estimate expected return and risk of a stock. This aim brings about the calculation of real value of the stock. The real value is depended on the qualitative and quantitative factor like assets, power of return, growing potential and managing team of firm. This study which is generally oriented to "fundamental approach" consists of 4 theoretical and 1 application parts. It has a technical base constituted by the analysis of general economy, industrial and firm dimensions. In the first part of our study, our fundamental approach is summarized and identified to the reader. In the second part, different approaches in evaluating various kinds of financial assets are widely scrutinized. In this phase fundamental approach and Its sub-branches are explained. The basic factors all of which have an impact in appraising, are Identified. Then the technical approach and its important techniques are scrutinized. Thirdly the efficient market theory is considered in detail. The major similarities and prominant differences are analysed so that the reader can obtain a comparative framework on the base of study. -4- Especlally in the fundamental approach, the condition of state economy and expectations regarding the developments in the economic conditions and moreover obvious impacts of all of these factors on the probability of firms are examined In the first stage as much detailed as possible. In the second stage the strategic situation of a definite industry or sector in which the target firm or firms are included and the position of target companies in this industrial branch are handled. The third phase is basicly oriented to examining of qualitative and quantitative informations about the company. Other analysing techniques are scrutinized in the same manner. In the third part of our study, the main subject is the "stock evaluation". After analysing of dividend appraising models with one or more periods, major appraising models which are oriented to stock evaluation, are comprehensively explained. These models are Price/Earnings Ratio, Net Asset Value, Re- establishment Value, Analysis of Discounted Cash Flow, Price/Cash Flow Ratio, Dividend Yield, Price/Book Value Ratio, Price/Re-Establ Ishment Value Ratio. After satisfactory analysing of these techniques, the finding "real stock value" is compared with the market price of the stock and made a comment whether the share value is "over valued" or "under-valued". Part four widely examines the fundamental analysis with Its retlcal dimension. At first, analysing of global economy and indicators taken into consideration in this analysis are discussed, then influencing potential of these parameters to the industry and companies, is measured by being concentrated on their theoretical lines. In subsequent parts of this section the second point is Industry analysis. The main speslf lcatlon of industry analysis is the qualitative from Industrial life cycle. It is quite important to know where the Industry is in Its own life cycle. Because the clear response of this question has a strong effect in decision making for financial investments. The basic parameters which have to be taken into consideration in Industrial analysis and their Impact potential on the industry are explained in detail. The last and the most detailed part of the fundamental analysis is the company analysis. In this phase the target firm is appraised according to several complex general economic and industrial factors. 5- Which sector or industry branch does the firm take part in? How strictly Is the firm Influenced by developments In this industrial branch and macro economic factors? What is the market position of the firm? Is it exposed to competition? Is its production technology adequate for today's standarts? What kind of managing approach has it? Is the phase of decision making swift enough? What Is the structure of its financial position? These are some most important and strategic questions that can be shown as the examples of the methods of analysing. In this phase the value of company is tried to be calculated by the aid of all possible qualitative and quantitative data (even some of them inside information) and by using various kinds of measuring techniques. After calculating of the real value of company, the real stock value is detemlned from the capital structure of the firm. Normally, if the firm is in a phase of public offer or in a "Block Sell" to another individual or corporate Investors, the valid real value is this. If shares of the company are already in the stock exchange with a definite stock market price, in that case, the resultant value will provide to make comparison between the "real value" and "market value" of the shares and thus will provide the investors to develop strategies oriented to investment decision and/or timing of investment. The last part of our study Includes an application process. All of the concepts concentrated on the theoretical sections of our study are now converted substantial operations on a real firm. At the end of our analysis the real value of one share is determined and so constitutes a living example for the readers. Starting with a sectoral evaluation, the position of the choosen company (Tat Konserve A.Ş.) is examined In the global frame of the relevant industry (The fruid and vegetables manufacturing industry). In this phase the firm's indicators like annual production, export, import, market share of the company are widely scrutinized. The firm's potential in sectoral structure Is measured. Then, the organization of the company and personeli structure are explained. In this phase the efficiency and professional skills of firm's management is measured. Thirdly, production process of the firm is discussed. The products and their priorities, capacity utilization, production flow, technological level, quality control and other auxllllary plants are analysed. 6- The marketing organization and its functions, product distribution, customer position, pricing system, payment procedures, sales and promotion are then systematicly discussed. The subsequent part includes the accounting system and reporting techniques of the firm. Cost accounting ve designing of financial reports are then discussed. Then, the financial position of the company is examined. Finally the company and stock evaluation process are comprehensively examined and firm's shares evaluated
Tez (Yüksek Lisans) -- İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, 1992
Thesis (M.A.) -- İstanbul Technical University, Institute of Social Sciences, 1992
Anahtar kelimeler
İşletme, Değerleme, Hisse senetler, Sermaye piyasası, Temel analiz, Business Administration, Valuation, Stocks, Capital market, Basic analysis