Disaster management from a social vulnerability perspective: Mapping the risks for the city of Istanbul

Abstract

Disaster management encompasses a multifaceted approach involving preparation, response, recovery, and mitigation strategies aimed at alleviating the impacts of disasters. Disasters are fundamentally categorized into two main subcategories: natural and human-made. Natural disasters are classified as meteorological, hydrological, geological, and biological. Human-made disasters, on the other hand, are classified as technological, environmental, social, and economic. Vulnerability refers to the sensitivity of a system, community, individual, or structure to various hazards. Vulnerability can be categorized into main types: physical, social, economic, environmental, technological, institutional, and psychological vulnerabilities. Social vulnerability, characterized by socio-economic, demographic, and institutional factors, plays a critical role in shaping the resilience of individuals and communities to disasters. This thesis explores the concept of social vulnerability within the context of disaster management, focusing on earthquake risk in Istanbul, Türkiye. Through a comprehensive analysis at the district level, this study aims to develop a social vulnerability index, identify critical factors leading to vulnerability, and assess spatial vulnerability patterns using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The findings highlight the importance of integrating social and physical vulnerability perspectives to inform targeted intervention strategies and minimize disaster-induced damage. Disaster management constitutes a fundamental aspect of contemporary governance, encompassing a spectrum of activities aimed at mitigating the adverse impacts of disasters. Central to effective disaster management is the recognition of social vulnerability, which encompasses various socio-economic, demographic, and institutional factors that influence individuals' and communities' capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from disasters. While conventional approaches often focus on the physical aspects of vulnerability, understanding the social dimensions is equally imperative, particularly in densely populated urban centers facing significant seismic risks such as Istanbul, Türkiye. This study adopts a multi-stage approach to assess social vulnerability and its spatial distribution in Istanbul. Firstly, a social vulnerability index is developed utilizing selected indicators such as population demographics, economic status, and access to healthcare. Subsequently, factor analysis is employed to identify critical factors leading to social vulnerability. In the second stage, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) methods are utilized to evaluate the spatial patterns of vulnerability, integrating physical vulnerability reports and data provided by the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM). Finally, an integrated assessment is conducted by overlaying social vulnerability and physical vulnerability data to identify high-risk areas at the district level. The analysis reveals significant spatial variations in social vulnerability across Istanbul, with certain districts exhibiting higher levels of vulnerability compared to others. Factors such as population density, economic disparities, and inadequate infrastructure cause heightened vulnerability in specific regions. Integrating physical vulnerability perspectives enables a comprehensive understanding of the complex interplay between socio-economic factors and seismic risks. The identification of high-risk areas informs targeted intervention strategies, facilitating more efficient post-disaster response and recovery efforts. Integrating social vulnerability into disaster management frameworks is crucial for enhancing community resilience and minimizing the socio-economic impacts of disasters. This study underscores the importance of adopting a multidimensional approach to vulnerability assessment, integrating both social and physical perspectives. The developed vulnerability maps and analysis outcomes provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders, guiding future disaster management policies and interventions aimed at reducing vulnerability and enhancing preparedness in earthquake-prone regions in Istanbul.