Marmara Ereğlisi nüfus ve kentsel gelişim eğilimlerinin gelişme modelleri ile değerlendirilmesi

Abstract

Marmara Ereğlisi, kentsel gelişim süreci içinde ele alınarak tümevarım metodu yoluyla dünya, ülke, bölge, alt bölge ve yerleşime varan bir kademelenme ile incelenmiştir.Bu tezin amacı; Marmara Ereğlisi'nin nüfûs, kentsel gelişim, göç, işgücünün dağılımı ve gelişme potansiyellerinin belirlenip korrelasyon hesaplan yardımıyla büyüme modellerinin oluşturulmasıdır.Öncelikle belli hipotezler ortaya atılmış ve yerinde yapılan anket çalışması sonucu elde edilen verilerin değerlendirilmesinden sonra varılan sonuçlar ile hipotezlerin doğrulukları test edilmiştir.Çalışma altı bölümden oluşmaktadır. Birinci bölümde çalışmanın ana hatları tanıtılmış, amacı, kapsamı ve yöntemi belirtilmiş, doğruluğu sınanmak üzere hipotezler oluşturulmuştur. İkinci bölümde Türkiye'deki bölgesel gelişme eğilimleri incelenerek şehirleşme politikaları ve kalkınma planlarında alınan kararların etkileri üzerinde durulmuş,elde edilen veriler dünyadaki gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki verilerle karşılaştınlmıştır. Üçüncü bölümde Trakya Alt Bölgesindeki nüfus hareketleri ve sosyo-ekonomik durum, şehirsel kademelenme ayrıntılarıyla ele alınarak Marmara Ereğlisi'nin Trakya Alt bölgesi içindeki yeri değerlendirilmiştir. Dördüncü bölümde yerleşmenin Doğu Marmara Şehirsel Yoğunluk bölgelesiyle ilişkisi kurulmuş, İstanbul Metropoliten alanı, Trakya Alt Bölgesi ve Marmara Ereğlisi arasındaki etkileşim incelenmiş,göç hareketleri ve mal-hizmet akımı üzerinde durulmuştur. Beşinci bölümde Marmara Ereğlisi'nin kapsamlı bir değerlendirilmesi yapılarak konumu, nüfus gelişimi, nüfus yapısı, göç eğilimleri,sektörel dağılımı,konut durumu, gerçekleştirilmiş ve planlanan yatırımlar incelenmiş, korrelasyon katsayısı ile sektörlere bağlı büyüme modelleri oluşturulmuştur. Altıncı ve son bölümde ise sonuçlar ve önerilere yer verilmiştir.

Marmara Ereğlisi was examined with induction method in urbanization process. World, country, region, subregion and settlement were graduated.Migration trends and poulation movements were compared between Turkey, developing and developed countries. Thus the situation of our country in the world was determined.Turkey is one of the Third World Countries that is urbanizing very rapidly. Because of this transfer of employment from agriculture to the industrial area has begun to produce an ongoing stream of migrants to urban areaes. As Turkey other developed or developing countries has also passed this process. Whether in the world or in our countiy effective factors on the migration are the same. They can be ranged so : Geographic effects ( topography , cilimate exc. ) , economic effects ( working condition , guarantee , better gain exc. ), social ( sex , age , education , profession and skills, family utility exc. ), political ( banishment, terrorism exc. ) effects.The policies of urbanization, development, migration and the decisions in development plans were discussed. In addition projects in connection with regional development were also discussed. While countrial data are discussed, it was connected with Trakya subregion. Population, urban settlement graduates, working power and sectoral distribution of Trakya subregion was examined. Meanwhile, İstanbul Metropolitan area was eamined because of its importance in country and Marmara Region, comprehensive approach was used to understand the settlement better. Consequently the position of the settlement in region, subregion, country and world was tried to determine. Marmara Ereğlisi with whether its conditions or its potentials have been having and important development since the begining of 1980.The mean purpose of the thesis; consist of development and the determination of Marmara Ereğlisi. After the situation of the settlement was determined, social- economic qualities of Marmara Ereğlisi were discussed. After Marmara Ereğlisi became district center connected with Tekirdağ city, it was developped fastly.The reality of the situation arised in 1985-1990 census population has been rising fastly and this population increase is because of migration. In reality this population increase, was arise with sum up the potential of the settlement.Marmara Ereğlisi became important focus point at sea transport in history. Because of this properties Marmara Settlement accominated a lot of cultures. It has an important historical past. Today the areas in its borders are conserved. This potential is very important because of future of tourism.Marmara Ereğlisi is extremely suitable for second houses because of it is a seaside town. Marmara Ereğlisi especially is prefered for its natural sandy places and other natural beauties. Because of it building sector developes and it increases its sectoral share.Because of the settlement takes one's place in Trakya, which is the industrial settlement region and because of it is near Istanbul Metropolitan area, working population in industry increase fastly.Thus, in spite of agriculture sector has more than fifty percent sectoral share until end of the 1985, industry and services sectors develope rapidly.Consequently Marmara Ereğlisi is in the developing process in population and sectoral distribution respects. Market economy substitude closed economy which consist of agriculture structure and social structure changes from rural society to urban society.The most important change is family structure. The family structure changed from large family to small family. %50 family are small family according to the result the questionnaire in Marmara Ereğlisi. The result of investments which are realized and planning for Marmara Ereğlisi, Its potentials are used more prouductive. With evaluation purpose of development probability of Marmara Ereğlisi, sectoral development scenarios were formed. İn this connection correlation was used.Correlation is a statistical calculation form. It determines direction and degree of related to each other of two changeables. After the correlations, relation matrix was formed. In generally the thesis consist of six sectiones. In the first section, purpose and comprising of study and study method were defined. In addition hypothesis were formed.In the second section, regional developments in Turkey were examined and they were compared with developing and developed countries in the world. Development Plans and Urban Policies in the our country were defined. In this part: Northwest Europe North America Japan, West Europe East Europe Kore and Taiwan was taken. In developed countries, migration moves from center to outside in generally. But in developing countries it moves to the center still. Both of them have a common property that causes of migration. These causes are unemployment, political, climatical and topographic causes. Moreover, evaluation was done according to the regions in Turkey. So: Marmara Region is the most of to take migration in Turkey. In recent year desantralization of industry and migration from Istanbul to peripheral regions cause to fall down migration rates. However in Thrace, migration rate increases. In Aegean and Mediterranean an important development was not watched for. In the Middle and East Anatolia because of social-economic and political causes migration to the peripheral regions continues. Blacksea Region gives migration still but migration speed becomes slover. In Southeast Anatolia net migration rate approaches "0" because of investment and encouragement decisions. In the result of this part , the world desantralization arises against to metreoplitanizm. Conurbation must be prevented because of to supply balanced development in whole country. In the third section, socio-economic properties and population movements in Trakya Subregion were examined. And in this section position of Marmara Ereğlisi in the Trakya Subregion was examined. Urban and rural population trends were examined. Cause of increase urban population rate in Thrace is migration from rural areas to out of the subregion. But Tekirdağ urbanizes. In the urban graduate Kirklareli in 3. graduate, Tekirdağ and Edime in 4. graduate. In sectoral distribution in rows agriculture- services- industry does not change since 1965. But services and industry leave behind agriculture. In the fourth section, East Marmara Urban Density Regions were described and relation between Marmara Ereğlisi and Istanbul Metropolitan area was examined. Migration trends and property-service currents between Marmara Ereğlisi and Istanbul Metropolitan area were defined. In results of this part, Istanbul developing fastly ,it must be controlled. There is a desantralization of industry problem in Istanbul. As Çerkezköy new attraction centers must be formed. Comprehensive planning must be done for regional development.New growing centers obtain balance in the regional development. Fifth section consist of comprehensive examination about of Marmara Ereğlisi. Position, socio-economic structure, population properties, migration trends and investments were examined. It is also consist of evaluation growing possibility. Correlation calculations was osed and the models was formed according to sectoral distrubition. According to agriculture, industry and servises sectors scenarios were formed. In 1987, Marmara Ereğlisi has been district. Urban population is 5387 in 1990. It has five quarters. Cedit Ali Paşa, Dereağzı, Bahçelievler, Mustafa Kemal Paşa and Kamaradere quarters.Urban population has % 48 in all population. According to population estimates it will have between 11000-20314 population in 2015.In sectoral distribution %45 Agriculture % 32 Services % 23 Industry Result of the study, sixth section consist of result and suggestions. Hypothesis in the begining of the thesis were discussed with the result of the data. According to the discussing of the results of the thesis ;İn the begining of the study, population structure of settlement was supposed as old population . Although this suppose, data show that potantial working population has an important percentage of total population. This value is 0.74. But because of the real working population rate is 0.32, the image of" settlement loses population " is confirmed partially. Although the settlement has not employment possibilitiy enough, because of the settlement has many communication systems and other settlements which near the Marmara Ereğlisi have a lot of employment possibility, the migration from the Marmara Ereğlisi becomes slower since 1985.Important changes are been in the sectoral distmbution depend on the population structure. In the settlement industry and service sectors substitute agriculture sector althought agricultural structure is conserved today.In the result of the study, in the future ( in 2015 ) will be a services city and tourism, commerce and personal services will gain importance. On the other hand some measures must be taken for development and increasing income per-capita. Historical and natural values of the settlement must be conserved. In this manner tourism can be developed.Surplus value of agriculture must be transformed investment in the settlement for increase employment possibilities. Importance must be given to organization and education. Tourism and other profession high schools must be opened for qualified workpower. Thus out migration will be prevented and qualified staff need will be answered.Improvement movies in the settlement must be limited and house-keeping must be encouraged. Moreover the settlement must be introduced to whether foreigner or native tourists. ( For example: Festival can organized.) Marmara Ereglisi must be transformed to an adder-distributor center. In this manner market economy must be developed. Organization and cooperatives must be encourged. Fishing must be developed and a harbour and a fisher shelter must be built. Moreover fish produce centers must be found. In agriculture industrilization must be encouraged and watering must be developed. So agricultural industrilization can be formed. Enviromental pollution must be prevented. Industrilization and other investments must be controlled about this condition. Infrastructural investments must be encouraged for tourism. Camping or a day unit areas must be built. Store and transportation must be developed. Communication to the villages must be improved and sea-communication must be developed.