Türkiye otoyollarındaki trafik kazalarının karşılaştırmalı incelenmesi

Abstract

Ulaşım, insanların ve eşyaların fayda sağlamak için belli bir amaca yönelik yer değiştirmeleridir. Bir ülkede taşıma ve ulaşımın kolaylıkla yapılması sosyal ve ekonomik kalkınmayı hızla geliştirir. Uygun bir taşıma, herbir ulaştırma sisteminin üstünlükleri ve dezavantajları gözönünde tutularak, sistemler arasında denge ile sağlanır. Dünyada 20. Yüzyılın ikinci yansında karayolu taşıması diğer sistemlere karşı üstün duruma geldi. Ülkemizde de yolcu ve yük taşımasında önemli bir payı olan karayollarının tercih edilme sebebi erişim kolaylılığı ve zaman kaybının az olmasıdır. Olumlu faydalara rağmen yol ve üzerinde oluşan trafiğin trafik kazaları, hava kirlenmesi, gürültü, ekolojinin bozulması gibi olumsuz etkileri de vardır. Trafik kazalarının önlenmesi konusunda istatistiki bilgilerin çok önemli bir yeri ve payı vardır. Kaza istatistiklerinin değerlendirilmesi ile yol üzerindeki tehlikeli noktalar belirlenebilir ve kazaların önlenebilmesi için yüksek maliyet gerektirmeyen teknik ve idari çözümler uygulanabilir. 1. Bölümde trafik kazalarından, kazalara etki eden faktörlerden, yolun, yol elemanlarının ve trafiğin etkisinden, ülkemizde meydana gelen trafik kazalarının durumundan ve diğer ülkelerle karşılaştırılmasından bahsedilmiştir. 2. Bölümde trafik kaza analizlerinin amacı analizde kullanılan yöntemler, Regresyon Analizi-t İsta anlatılmıştır. Analizi-t istatistiği-Z istatistiği-F istatistigi-x2 testi gibi istatistik yöntem ve testler 3. Bölümde ücret toplama istasyonları arasında yolculuk denklemi bulunmuştur. Bu denklem ve istasyonlardan çıkış yapan araç sayıları kullanılarak bölgeler arasında yolculuk dağılımını ve taşıma matrisini bulmak için basit bir yöntem geliştirilmiştir. Bu yöntem ile otoyollarımızda 1994 yılma ait araç çıkış değerlerinden 1994 yılı için 5689 milyon taşıt-km değeri bulunmuştur. Otoyollarımıza ait kaza oranlan hesaplanarak,diğer ülkelere,devlet ve il yollarımıza ait kaza oranlan ile karşılaştırılmıştır. Sonuçlar ve Öneriler bölümünde, otoyollarımıza ait değerlerin gelişmiş ülkelere ait değerlere çok yakın olduğu gösterilerek düşük kaza maliyetli otoyolların ülkemizde tercih edilme sebeplerinden biri olacağı, devlet ve il yollarımızın bakım, onarım ve iyileştirme çalışmaları sonucunda, daha güvenli duruma geleceği vurgulanmıştır

Transport is transfer of passenger and goods to obtain a benefit for a aim. In a country transport facility improves rapidly the social and economical development. The kinds of transport can classify in five type : - Highway - Railway - Water Conduit - Airway - Pipe Line In transport of passenger and goods, these types must be economic, safety, rapid and suitable for country conditions. There are advantages and disadvantages of each type. Therefore, it isn't possible to use only one type in transport. Taking into consideration economical and technical resources of country, usage field of each type should be determined. All of the world, after 1950's highway transport surpassed the other types because of improvement in building sub-grade and car technology. Highway is very important in transport of passenger and goods. The reason of being preferred that it has access facility and less loss time. Access and transport facilities suppling by a highway network with good physical and geometrical standards and adequate length causes a lot of possibilities for country and environment : - Transport facility causes marketing of being produced goods with faster more suitable price. This property supplies economical development and improvement of production regions. - Transport facility make possible to served effectual such as education, health, communication. - Easy and cheap transport accelerates interior and exterior tourism and makes progress in social cultural structure. - Improvement of physical and geometrical properties of a road decreases negative effects of traffic on road and make economical benefit. Despite these benefits, there are negative effects of road and its traffic such as accident, air pollution, noise, spoiling of ecology. IX Until 1950 transport was made via railway in general. General Directorate of Highways was established in 1950 and has aimed to reach to all parts of the country. During that period, motor vehicle traffic which was too low did not require high standard roads. In 1960's through the application of rapid techniques 60 thousand km. roads. Turkey needed on these days, have been acquired. During 1970's establishment of motor vehicles industry has added new dimensions to the highway policy. Many laned express roads of motorway construction have gained the quality of being economic in some main axes and around big cities where there traffic congestions. Planning, financing, projecting and construction of these types of roads where economic evaluations are important, require a mixed and new technology compared to other roads. First application in our country on this subject was realized through Bosphorous Bridge and Istanbul Peripheral road Projects. During 1980's motorway studies have gained weight and a long term motorway net planning has been prepared. Because of motorway that built and is going to build in future, Turkey will be a link between Europe and Asia. In developing countries, the need of evaluation of traffic accident-highway relation has been important due to increasing traffic accidents that are negative effect of road and traffic. In addition, it was observed a increase in the number of injured and death persons. This increase has been caused loss of economy too. Increasing population and car ownership caused to occur the demand of density travels. The lack of highway infrastructure that has not got over this demand increases importance of traffic safety. The main reasons of traffic accidents are mistake of person, insufficient of infrastructure, mistake of car and bad weather conditions. The number of accidents has been increased because the traffic on our highways risen. In Europe the number of accidents that result in death per million vehicle-km decreased doe to the preventive effort. However, the reason of high value of traffic accidents in our country is not only increasing traffic volume. Furthermore, it is not true that the main reason of accident is driver. It is said that these reasons are over and unbalanced loading of vehicle, destroyed highway infrastructure, unbalanced transport between transport systems and lack of traffic management and control. Statistical knowledge is important for preventive works of traffic accidents dangerous sections or points are determined by the evaluation of accidents statistics and applied technical and administrative solutions that are not required high cost to prevent traffic accidents. In this study, it is mentioned of traffic accidents, the reasons of accidents, effect of road, roads components and traffic, accidents in Turkey, comparison accident values belong to our motorway with values of our state - provincial roads and the other country. Firstly, vehicle-km belong to our motorway was performed because there wasn't any knowledge about this subject. And then, the number of accident, death and injured per one hundred million vehicle-km was found and compared with values of the other roads. The obtaining results about whether motorway is a safety road or not had aimed. First chapter describes traffic accidents, the reasons of accidents, effect of road, road components and traffic, accidents in Turkey and comparison accident values belong to our roads with values of the other country. Traffic is a social event that has a result in death, injured or material damage. The causes of accidents are person, vehicle, road and traffic conditions. These causes are shown in table 1 : As shown in table 1, effect of road on accident in Turkey is approximately hundredth. According to the researches is thirtysix percent in U.S. A and seventy percent in Russia. It is said that effect of road and traffic in Turkey is more than explained value. Geometrical structure of road consist of horizontal and vertical curves, superelevation, grade and lane. The insufficient of this structure causes accident, the lack of capacity, economical loss in time and management cost, and a bad image of highway. The mistakes in geometrical structure are the little curve diameter, straight grade, unsuitable horizontal and vertical combinations, insufficient number of traffic lane and narrow width pavement. Road components that effects accidents and traffic are intersection, overpass, underpass, shoulder, central reserve. Road mistakes that causes accidents are narrow-unsurfaced-low shoulders, insufficient marked- undesigned intersections, divided roads despite over traffic flow. In Turkey roads with design-making mistakes and neglected-not repaired are very important cause of accident. Turkey has bigger values per million vehicle-km than Europe countries (table 2 ). The other cause of accident is unbalanced transport. Although passenger transport on highway is % 95, goods transport on highway is % 85 but insufficient maintenance and repair works cause to draw in life of our road and material-moral damage. XI In second chapter the aim of traffic accident analysing, used methods in analysis, regression analysing, t-statistic, Z-statistic, f-statistic and % testing were explained. These analysis and tests make for preventing accidents and suppling traffic safety. Methods such as frequency of accident, ratio of frequency, ratio control of quality are used in these analysis. While dangerous sections or points are determined, necessary improvements may be made. Frequency of accident method was used in this study. In third chapter it is proved that entry and passing vehicle values in motorway station are same and trip distribution that was obtained by these values can be used for our motorway. This distribution is as following : ty= 0.0054022 x (A)0532238 x(B)U67032x(Cf532238 (1) In first equation tjj is amount of trip between i and j zone, A is bigger value than trip generation of i zone and trip attraction of j zone, B is the other value and C is importance coefficient of i zone Using this equation that obtained by available passing vehicle values from station, a basic method was performed to find trip distribution and transport matrix between zones. Steps of this method are following : 1- The number of entry vehicle is same with the number of passing vehicle. Thus, generation and attraction values of trip matrix are obtained. 2- Trip distribution of zone that has the biggest generition or attraction value performed using first equation. xu 3- The sum of the all tij is corrected so that it is equal generation or attraction of this zone. 4- Corrected trip distribution values are derived by the values of other zones and new generation or attraction values are performed. 5- Second, third and fourth steps are repeated until tij values of other zones is found and trip matrix is formed. Using passing vehicle belong to 1994, total vehicle-km for our motorway in 1994 was performed 5689 million. Ratio of accidents of our motorway was compared with state roads, provincial roads and values of the other country. This comparison is shown in table 3 : As shown in table 3 our motorway values is less than the other our roads. Despite expected result, it is a importance result that this values are approximately equal the other country's. In most of developing countries, the number of accident is too much. It is obvious that decrease in accident causes a economical benefit. Motorway and expressway that are two-way road has a low ratio of accident. The more project cost, the less loss of accident in control of access roads with over cost is less than the other roads.