Social vulnerability analysis of the cities affected by the february 6 kahramanmaras earthquakes

Abstract

Natural disasters are generally defined as events occurring in nature—on land, in the air, or in water—that originate without human influence, cannot be stopped once they begin, and cause loss of life and property, severely impacting public health and disrupting daily life. Natural disasters, which date back to before the existence of humanity, have caused material and moral damage not only to structures and environments but also to living beings, regardless of their intensity during the period in which they occur. Despite centuries of research and efforts, the precise timing and location of natural disasters remain unpredictable, though they can be forecasted to some extent. The best way to cope with natural disasters is primarily to develop possible hazard scenarios and prepare accordingly, learn lessons from past experiences, conduct analyses, and develop strategic plans. These strategies must be accessible and implementable not only by local authorities but also by every individual within the society. Today, with the increasing population, irregular migration, unplanned urbanization, inadequate infrastructure, shrinking common spaces, hard-to-manage regions, use of low-quality construction materials to reduce costs, and construction services that have not undergone necessary inspections, earthquakes have become the foremost and most significant disaster threatening every region with residential areas, regardless of scale. The occurrence of earthquakes is fate, but the destruction they cause is not. Every event occurring within societies continues in a chain-like order. Therefore, the activities conducted before an earthquake are as important as those implemented afterward in terms of disaster management. Voluntary and mandatory migration from earthquake-affected cities to other regions creates demand gaps in those areas. Internal migration requires the presence of employment opportunities and a sufficient stock of resilient housing in the newly settled cities. Moreover, efforts must be made for vulnerable groups such as women, children, elderly, and disabled individuals in areas such as education, healthcare, and social reintegration. Social vulnerability analyses are of paramount importance and necessity for developing these strategies. The main objective of this study is to determine the social vulnerability levels of the provinces affected by the February 6 Kahramanmaraş earthquake—namely Adana, Adıyaman, Diyarbakır, Elazığ, Gaziantep, Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Kilis, Malatya, Osmaniye, and Şanlıurfa—based on demographic, socio-economic, cultural, and humanitarian factors. Subsequently, the preparedness of local administrations and the public for disasters is analyzed, and social vulnerability maps are produced accordingly. Social vulnerability analysis serves as a critical tool for building more resilient societies against disasters and has been applied in detail across the 11 provinces affected by the February 6 earthquakes. Key questions addressed in this research include: To what extent did kinship relations influence evacuations and migration routes from the earthquake zone to other provinces? Which districts were preferred for resettlement by migrants? What were the primary reasons for migration? How did unemployment rates change in the abandoned cities? Is there a tendency among migrants to return? In which regions were aid activities concentrated? How quickly did aid reach these areas? How many different institutions and organizations provided assistance? Are the resettlement areas also regions receiving aid? For example, analysis of news content on a provincial basis revealed that migration did not only occur from the earthquake zone to other provinces in the country; temporary migration movements were also observed within the same cities—from rural to urban centers, from apartments to government dormitories, and even among earthquake- affected provinces facilitated by aid teams and volunteers. These findings reveal the complexity of the multifaceted social mobility emerging after the disaster. The research not only determined vulnerability levels but also evaluated the post-earthquake resolution processes and material and moral rehabilitation efforts. Using demographic, socio-economic, structural, and social capital data from the 11 provinces affected by the February 6 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, a social damage vulnerability analysis was conducted to test how closely district- and province-level applications correspond to existing outcomes and their usability in disaster prevention, monitoring, and response phases. The most vulnerable groups and regions were identified, and risk reduction recommendations were formulated. The comparability and accuracy of news topics produced by local news sources after the earthquake with real data were also examined. Geographic Information Systems (GIS), an essential tool in the geomatics field where location and information are intertwined, was used for social vulnerability analysis. Spatial distribution maps were produced and supported by various evaluation methods. During data collection, a total of 3,824 news articles published by Anadolu Agency and Cumhuriyet Newspaper between February 6, 2023, and February 6, 2024, were examined. These news items were categorized under 24 subheadings considering socio-economic, demographic, and other social dimensions to reveal the long-term impacts of the earthquake. The categorized news were divided into districts of the 11 provinces affected by the earthquake based on their location data. This allowed for answers to questions such as whether the district with the highest vulnerability coincides with the district producing the most news and whether there is a linear relationship between the news produced and vulnerability. The collected data were supported by official data shared by governmental institutions and transferred into ArcGIS software in Excel format. Thus, the data were spatially integrated with administrative boundaries of provinces provided by the Turkish General Directorate of Mapping. Visualization processes enabled a clearer demonstration of regional migration movements and social impacts. Using the Address-Based Population Registration System database of the Turkish Statistical Institute for the 11 provinces affected by the earthquake, social vulnerability at the district level was examined through indicators such as the elderly and child dependency ratios, average household size, female-headed households, and literacy rates. District-level vulnerability maps were created using these social indicators, and a comparative analysis was conducted with earthquake news data. This study holds significant importance for understanding social damage vulnerability indicators by both administrations and individuals. Unfortunately, many social indicators are not included in commonly collected and shared databases. In addition to tangible data such as building counts, indicators such as the number of slum residences, accessibility to health facilities in the region, and the number of households receiving social aid at the district level—often considered less influential—have proven to be critically important for vulnerability calculations. The most crucial first step to developing effective disaster response strategies is the systematic collection and processing of such social data for each district. The analysis revealed that social damage vulnerability does not arise solely from economic insufficiencies but is a multidimensional concept involving social capital, ethnic background, and other factors. Vulnerable groups such as the elderly, children, and disabled individuals are more severely affected by disasters, and strategies should primarily focus on these groups. Ensuring uninterrupted and coordinated access to resources and services during disaster management should be the initial step in disaster planning. Risk management and public awareness should not be underestimated as subsequent steps. Societies are dynamic systems functioning in an integrated manner, and this complexity must be recognized in disaster preparedness and response.