Enflayon altında yatırım analizleri

Abstract

Bu çalışmada yatırım projelerinin değerlendirilmesinde kullanılan tek ölçütlü ve deterministik analizler enflasyonist ortamda incelenmişlerdir. Her analiz için yeni ifadeler geliştirilmiştir. İkinci bölümde, yatırım kavramına ilişkin açıklamalar yapılmış, değerlendirme probleminin nitelikleri ortaya konmuştur. Yatırımları çeşitli sınıflandırma biçimleri, proje düzenlemesi ve uygulaması ile ilgili yönetim çalışmaları, risk ve belirsizlik durumunda değerlendirme bu bölümde açıklanmıştır. üçüncü bölümde enflasyon kavramı ayrıntıları ile açıklanmıştır. Enflasyon teorisinin iki ayrı görüşü olan miktar teorisi ve gelir teorisi bu bölümde incelenmiştir. Aşırı talebin enflasyona olan etkileri açık ve gizli enflasyon kavramları, ithal enflasyon, stagflasyon ve bu çalışmada sıkça kullanılacak olan enflasyon-faiz ilişkisi bu bölümde anlatılmıştır. Dördüncü bölümde enflasyon altında mühendislik ekonomisi analizleri incelenmiştir. Enflasyonun yatırım kararlarını ne ölçüde değiştirilebileceği bu bölümde anlatılmıştır. Çeşitli analiz dönemleri için ayrı ayrı ifadeler geliştirilmiştir. Beşinci bölümde yenileme modelleri üzerinde durulmuştur. Burada yenileme modelleri iki gruba ayrılmıştır. Değerinden zamanla kay beden varlıklar ve aniden kullanım dışı kalan varlıklar. Bu iki gruba ait ifadelerin çıkarılışı ayrıntılı olarak verilmiştir. Bu bölümün sonunda enflasyonun dönemlere göre değiştiği bir ortamda değerin den zamanla kaybeden varlıklar için bir şimdiki değer ifadesi geliştirilmiştir Çalışmada enflasyonun içerildiği yeni ifadeler geliştirildiği gibi, başabaş analizinde enflasyonun pür olması halinde başabaş nokta sının değişmeyeceği de anlatılmakta, bununla ilgili ifadeler verilmektedir. Yatırım analizlerine enflasyonun dahil edilmesi büyük ekonomik kayıpları önlemektedir. örneğin bir yenileme analizi enflasyon göz önüne alınmadan yapılırsa ya zamanından önce bir yenileme ile sermaye kaybına ya da gereğinden geç bir yenileme ile maliyet artışına neden olunacaktır.

Inflation is the situation where prices of goods and services are increasing. Apartment rents, textbook prices, hair-cuts, groceries and almost everything else increase as time passes. This general upward movement of prices in an inflationary period, does not neces sarily produce a single rate of inflation. The prices of different items change at different rates, due to the complexities of a free competitive economy (plus monopolistic and other not-so-competitive influences). This property of inflation will be considered in break even analysis. Two distinct kinds of Turkish Liras (or other monetary units such as pesos or rubles) can be defined: 1- Actual Turkish Liras: The actual number of Turkish Liras as of the point in time they occur and the usual kind of Turkish Lira terms in which people think. 2- Real Turkish Liras: Turkish Liras of purchasing power as of some point in time, regardless of the point in time the actual dolars occur. Sometimes, it is called "constant worth Turkish Liras". Whenever future investment receipts are predetermined by contract, as in the case of a bond or a fixed annuity, these receipts do not respond to inflation. In cases where the future receipts are not predetermined, however, they may respond to inflation. The degree of response varies from case to case. To illustrate the nature of inflation, let us consider two annuities: The first annuity is fixed (unresponsive to inflation) and yields 2.DDQ TL per year for 1D years. The second annuity is of the same duration and yields enough future Turkish Liras to be equivalent to 2. ODD TL in the value of Turkish Liras of investment (constant worth Turkish ' Liras). Assuming an inflation Df 3% per annum and calculating pertinent values for the two annuities over a 1D year period, we find that when the receipts are constant in actual Turkish Liras (unresponsive to inflation), their equivalent in value of real Turkish Liras of investment declines over the ID-year interval to 1,^88 TL in the final year. Ldhen receipts are fixed in value of real Turkish Liras of investment (responsive to inflation), their equivalent in actual Turkish Liras rises to 2,688 TL by year 1D. In the thesis, real interest rate, inflation rate, and combined interest rate are defined as in the following: viii * Real Interest Rate: The" increase in real purchasing power expressed as a percent per period.. The interest rate at which real cash outflow is equivalent to real cash inflow. Sometimes known as monetary return or real monetary rate. Detoned as "i". * Inflation Rate: The increase in price of given goods or services as a percent per period. Denoted as "e". * Combined Interest Rate: The increase in amount to cover real interest and inflation expressed as a percent per period. The interest rate at which actual cash outflow is equivalent to actual cash inflow. It is often denoted as "g". Measures of economic effectiveness accepted in the thesis are defined as follows: * Present Worth: A determination of the present worth (P.U.) involves the conversion Df each individual cash flow to its present worth equivalent and the summation of the individual present worths to obtain the net present worth. * Annual Worth: The annual worth (A.ül.) is determined by converting all cash flows to an equivalent uniform annual series of cash flows. * Future worth: The future worth (F.UI.) is obtained by converting each individual cash flow to its future worth equivalent and deter mining the net future worth for the project. * Rate of Return: Among the many definitions of rate of return, the most papular definition is that interest rate which yields a net present worth of zero; such a rate of return is referred to as the internal rate of return (I.R.R.). * Benefit-Cost Ratio: There are several definitions of the benefit-cost ratio (B/C), but in general, it can be defined as the ratio of the equivalent worth of benefits to the equivalent worth of costs. In defining investment alternatives, it is important to ensure that the set of alternatives is mutually exclusive; the term mutually exclusive signifies that an "either-or, but not both" situation exists. That is, the choice of one excludes the choice of any other. Investment opportunities will denote projects, proposals, and other options available for investment. Distinct combinations of investment opportunities will be used to define the investment alternatives. ix As an illustration, suppose two investment opportunities, A and B, are available. In this case, four mutually exclusive alternatives can be formed: neither A nor B, A only, B only, and both A^ and B. In general, if there are m investment opportunities then 2 investment alternatives can be formed. Of course, not all of the 2 alternatives are necessarily feasible because there ara budged limitations, dependencies among investment opportunities, and other restrictions. In the thesis, the assumptions above have been considered. In the forth part of the thesis, the formulas of the single criterion deterministic investment analyses have been developed by considering the effect of inflation. Also, Whether inflation is constant or variable during the analysis period has been considered while the formulas were being developed. As it is known, there are three different analysis period situations encountered in economic analysis problems: 1- The useful life of each alternative equals the analysis period. 2- The alternatives have useful lives different from the analysis period. 3- There is an infinite analysis period (n=») All these situations have been studied on the analyses. In the fifth part of the thesis, the replacement models have been explained. First, the models have been given without considering^" the effect of inflation. After explaining, a replacement model under inflation has been developed. Two types of replacement problems have been considered. First, the replacement of assets that deteriorate gradually over time. Second, assets that fail suddenly. In the third part of the thesis, the meaning and kinds of inflation have been explained with its details. The effect of infla tion ah capital investment and cash flows has been studied, a large proportion of productive capacity is employed not for the purpose of producing goods available for purchase but for capital investment. In the sense in which this term is used here it does not mean the investment of money in stocks and shares, but the physical construction of capital goods. Wages are paid out and consumers purchasing power is created in the course of the creation of capital goods, without producing at the same time a corresponding volume of consumer goods. It standB to reason that under the automatic prices system the price level is influenced by the extent to which excess purchasing power is thus created, and also by the extent to which the public abstains from exercising its purchasing power through the purchase of consumer goods. If the amount of saving is small and the extent of capital investment large, prices tend to rise. If the amount of saving is large and capital investment small, prices tend to fall. A large proportion of the financial resources of a community is usually needed for the purpose of financing capital investment. What is more important, a large section of the workers in a community is engaged directly or indirectly in works connected with capital investment. They consume without producing anything available for immediate consumption or, in many instances, for consumption at any time, according to the nature of the capital investment. Admittedly in this respect there is no difference between this section of the community and other sections not engaged in the production of goods available for sale. The more advanced a community is, the larger is the percentage of its unproductive population. This is so even if we exclude from the unproductive classes that section of the community which engages in the provision of services such as transport, commu nications, entertainment, etc. without producing goods their acti vities are liable to absorb part of the consumers' purchasing power. There is, however, a large and increasing amount of purely administra tive work which does not provide either goods or purchaseable services. Whenever, this section of the community, together with the section engaged in work connected with capital investment, numerically increases it tends to produce an inflationary effect unless there is a simulta neous increase of the output of goods and services by the productive section, or unless there is a simultaneous increase in savings. A large proportion of capital investment serves the purpose of increasing future productive capacity. Taking a long view it leads to an increase of the output of consumer goods available for sale. Since capital investment for such purposes is continuous the chances are that every years a number of factories came into production and add to the volume of the current output. As a result the increase of current output could go a long way towards offsetting the inflati - anary effect of the diversion of productive capacity for the construc tion of new capital goods-that is, unless there is full employment, in which case the competition of new factories for labour would be inflationary. If our system started operating from one particular date, then excessive capital investment would produce a very pronounced inflationary effect during the first few years while productive capacity is diverted for that purpose without any compensatory dec rease of the current output. Since, however, operation of the system is continuous the only occasions on which the initiation of new productive capital investment is apt to create a pronounced inflatio nary effect are periods when its extent is increased substantially beyond that of the productive capacity of factories coming into production for the first time during the same period. As it is mentioned before, replacament analysis has been explained more widely than the other analyses. When the alternative lives are equal to the analysis period, we can generally solve problems in a variety of ways. But when the alternatives (defender and challenger) have different lives there may be difficulties. For unequal lived alternatives annual cash flow analysis is generally the mast suitable method of analysis. A comparison of equivalent uniform annual costs for unequal lived alternatives is suitable only if the following assumptions are valid. xi - 1. When an alternative has reached the end of its useful life it is assumed to be replaced by an identical replacement (uiith the same costs, performance, and so forth). - 2. The analysis period is a common multiple of the useful lives of the alternatives, or there is a continuing or perpetual requirement for the selected alternative. But there are defender-challenger situations where these condi tions cannot be met. It is reasonable to assume that the challenger can be replaced by an identical replacement. This is not, however, a reasonable assumption far the defender when it reaches the end of its economic life. The defender is typically an older piece of equipment with a modest current selling price. An identical replacement, even if it could be found, probably would have an installed cost far in excess of the current selling price of the defender. There are two alternatives in equipment replacement. 1. Replace the defender now. 2. Retain the defender for the present. The question is not really one of selecting the defender or the challenger, but rather that of deciding if now is the time to replace the defender. When the defender is replaced, it will be by the challenger-the best available replacement. The challenger could be a piece of new equipment, or it could be used or reconditioned equipment. Thus in equipment replacement, an annual cash flow analysis does not assume that the defender has an identical replace ment at the end of its useful life. The replacement is always by the challenger. If the defender-challenger problem assumes a continuing require ment for the equipment, an annual cash flow analysis of the unegual lived alternatives is proper. When there is a definite analysis period, after which the equipment will not be needed, then a careful analysis is needed to see how the analysis period affects the alter natives. For unequal lived alternatives neither present worth nor rate of return are practical methods of analysis. Both methods require that the consequences of the alternatives be evaluated over the analysis period. For this reason, these methods are attempted only when there is a well defined analysis period.