İstanbul'da iskan alanlarının yerseşiminde hane halkı nitelikleri ve konut talebi

Abstract

Hızlı nüfus artışı ile birlikte sosyokültürel, ekonomik ve fiziksel baskı ile karşı karşıya kalan İstanbul Metropolü' nde her alanda olduğu gibi konut piyasasında da konut üretimi ve sunumuna yönelik çözüm bekleyen problem alanları mevcuttur. Bu araştırmada, mevcut konut talebi ve üretimi, hanehalklarının iskan alanı yerseçimi ve hareketliliğine etken olan bir takım niteliklerinin mekana ne şekilde yansıdığı irdelenmekte, ve konut piyasasına yönelik katkılar sağlayacak nitelikte sonuçlar elde etmek amaçlanmakta, İstanbul için 600 anketlik bir örneklemle ve regresyon analizleri ile değerlendirilmektedir.. Beş bölümden oluşan tezin ilk bölümünde konunun niçin seçildiği, amaç ve kapsamı belirtilmektedir. Tezin İkinci Bölüm'ünde, Şehirsel modeller, İskan Alanı Yerseçimi Modelleri tarihi bir perspektif içinde ele alınarak, arz-talep ilişkisi ve mevcut uygulamalar araştırılmakta, Mikro Ekonomi Kuramı ile hanehalkı tercihi ve davranışları irdelenerek araştırmanın kuramsal temeli oluşturulmaktadır. Üçüncü Bölüm'de, Türkiye'de ve İstanbul'da kentleşme ve konut sorunu genel hatlarıyla incelenmektedir. Konut ihtiyacı ve buna bağlı olarak arzın belirlenmesi, hanehalkının sosyal ve ekonomik yapısındaki değişimlere göre konut üretiminin geleceğine yön verilmesi açısından, Türkiye genelinde kentleşme hızı, göç, hanehalkı ve aile yapısı, konut arzı ile ilgili bilgiler toplanarak, özellikle İstanbul Metropolü içinde barınma probleminin yarattığı sorunlara değinilmektedir. Dördüncü Bölüm'de, İstanbul'da nüfus ve hanehalkı ile ilgili özellikleri mevcut istatistiki veriler yardımıyla saptanmakta, araştırmanın temel varsayımları, seçilen konut alanlarında yapılan anket araştırması sonuçları ile desteklenmekte, hanehalkı hareketliliği ve yerseçimi davranışları araştırılmakta, İstatistiksel verilerin ve anketin sonuçları değerlendirilmekte ve Son bölümde ise konut piyasasına yönelik sonuçlar ve öneriler sunulmaktadır. Tez çalışmasında; hanehalklannın farklı sosyo-ekonomik yapılarının, aile döngüsü, yaş, gelir, meslek, evsahipliği özelliklerinin hareketlilik ve yerseçimi davranışı üzerinde etken olduğu (ev sahiplerinin kiracılara, yaşlıların gençlere, yüksek gelirlilerin alt gelirlilere, büyük hanehalkının küçüğe oranla daha az hareketli olduğu, hanehalklarının İstanbul Metropoliten Alanı içindeki hareketliliklerinin merkezden uzaklaşma şeklinde ve yüksek gelir grubunun belirlediği konut ve çevresi niteliklerine ulaşabilme isteği doğrultusunda olduğu) yolunda somut sonuçlar elde edilmektedir.

In Turkey, after 1950's, especially in big cities with high rates of population increase, and due to diverse political considerations in the planning process, there exists a great lack of authority to be filled in enforcing urbanization and housing policies, about population distribution, land use and housing,. Inability to implement master plans had the consequence of a big shortage in housing supply compared to the demand. This resulted in households producing houses with their own methods (like gecekondu). This tendency, causing excessive production of houses, increased housing demand and speculative behaviour. In this context, housing supply systems have become stereotyped, inequality among households reaching high levels, and control mechanisms becoming restricted. In our country, there are enough housing suppliers who produce houses such as constructors of cooperative houses, local governments and housing firms (especially Real Estate Bank). But it is also necessary to produce houses of certain standards, in good environments and especially houses for the middle low and low income groups. The aim of this study is to determine problem areas of the housing market in our country and in Istanbul; the characteristics of the housing demand in Istanbul, household mobility and preferences of different households with different socio-economic characteristics and to provide inputs for to the housing market. The thesis is based on the scenario, that households have different household mobility and residential location behaviours resulting from different socio-economic characteristics as opposed to the classical residential location models which are based on the Neo-Classical Economic Approach. Pickvance (1968), Alden Speare (1974), Newman (1979), Clark and Van Lierop (1986), in their models applied in various cities around the world, have also emphasized and based their models on the importance of household characteristics on household mobility and preferences. The thesis scrutinizes the problem area of "what rate of housing produced by housing supply systems meets the demand in the housing market," and tries to solve the problem of "the importance contribution of socio-economic characteristics of households and how it canalizes existing housing demand". Consequently, housing demand, household mobility and residential location behaviour are analaysed and utilised according to socio-economic characteristics of households based on Residential Location Models and a total of 600 questionnaires were made. The aim of the thesis, and the field analysis and questionnaires performed in conjunction, is to determine and compare how existing housing demands affect the housing supply in Istanbul; types of housing required depending on variations in family structures, household preferences and mobility, taking into account the country's economy and social characteristics. In this assumption of the thesis, the basic survey areas are shown below: - Housing production in the housing market - Socio-economic characteristics of households - Residential Location behaviour of households - Household preferences - Household mobility, and - Household mobility in the Istanbul Metropolitan Area. Field analysis and questionnaires have been specially performed for this thesis due to lack of statistical data for the Istanbul Metropolitan Area. Since social and economic conditions are not homogenous in the various districts of Istanbul, the fields in the research are determined by randomly selecting among lists of three different sample areas such as: 1- Mass Housing Areas 2- Legal Residential Neighborhoods 3- High Income Housing Areas. Economic conditions are categorised and lists formed according to five different income groups (1. Low, 2. Low Middle, 3. Middle, 4. Middle High, 5. High income groups.) XI The results of the questionnaires and field analysis are compared with existing statistical data, for Istanbul. In the second section. Urban Models and Residential Location models are examined within a historical perspective. Supply and demand are analysed with existing worldwide samples. Household preferences and behaviour are scrutinised with the help of micro-economic theory on which the theoretical background of the thesis is based. In the third section, the general situaton of urbanization and housing problems in Turkey and Istanbul Metropolitan Area are examined. The housing supply relating to the housing demand are determined. Information is obtained such as rates of urbanization growth, migration, household size and family structure, housing supply and especialy housing problems emphasized in Istanbul. In the fourth section, population and household characteristics are determined with the help of statistical data. Main approaches are supported by field analysis and results of questionnaires. Household mobility and residential location behaviour are examined with the help of crosstabs, linear regression and non linear regression analysis. Statistical data and the results of the questionnaires are evaluated. The results of the questionnaires and field analysis, supporting the thesis, are shown below. Household size is 3.76 persons. These are, nucleus family 80.8%, simple expanded family 7.2%, multiple family 2.5% and the remaining is the non-family group. Among these 49% are married, 46% single and 01% widows. Analysing the percentage of age groups shows that 35.1% are below 19, 52.6% are aged 20-49 and 12.3% are above 50 years old. Educational levels are: 31.5% primary school, 13.7% secondary school, 24.2% high school, 20.3% university and 10.3% illeterate. Occupation of persons are: children students 36.7%, house-wifes 21.6%, wholesale and retail trade, restaurants, hotels 9.1%, community, social and personal services 10.2%, finance, insurance, real-estate and business services 6.6%, retired 3.6%, administrative and managerial workers 2.7%, construction 2.5%. manufacturing industry 2%, others 5%. Out of the 2249 questionnaired only 37.7.% are economically active. According to the period of residence in Istanbul, rates are 34.2% 10-19 years, 24.1% 0-9 years, 18.7% 20-29 years, 10.3% 30-39 years, 12.7% 40 years and above. 59% of the households in the research area live in middle class apartment flats (four person families are the highest group with 18.6%,) 25% in luxury apartment flats (three person families rate highest at 7.3%,) 11.7% in villas (Squatter (Gecekondu) areas are out of this rates and there are 50-70% gecekondu of total habitant? in Istanbul ). The household preferences of the future are to live in villas at 51.5% and luxury apartment flats at 30.5%. Since the districts of households are randomly selected, their distribution takes place in 16 districts, Beşiktaş has the highest level of rates at 20% (because of existing luxury class housing.) The others are Bakırköy with 16.6%, Kadıköy with 15%, Kartal, xii Küçükçekmece, Üsküdar with 6.7%, Beykoz, Sarıyer, Şişli, Ümraniye, Zeytinburnu with 3.3%, Bayrampaşa, Eyüp, Fatih, Pendik with 1.7% of total. With respect to the levels of income, households with 10-20million monthly incomes are 32.3%, the others are: - below 5million: 0.8%, -5-10million: 18.2%, - 20-50million: 22.7%, - and above SOmillion: 26%. In the future middle income households prefer to live in middle class districts at 12.8%, only 11% of these middle income households prefer to live in high middle income districts, preferences of high income groups (at 15%) are middle high and high class districts, and for the others there is no relationship between the residential area and household income, but it is observed that as the income increases the dwelling area increases. On the other hand big households live in small houses and small households live in big houses. Looking at the mobility of households in the last decade, it is observed that 15% have not moved at all, 43.5% have moved at least once, 26.3% have moved twice, that the small sized households are more inclined to move, that as the income increases mobility decreases, and that tennants move more than landlords (the rate of landlords moving more than three times is 12% while for the tennants it's 22%.) In summary the results of the questionnaires give an insight about the family structures of households, housing types and decision on residential location and preferences for the future. The analytical study (regression analysis) of these results will assist in providing data for the planning of the housing market and housing demand in Istanbul. Regression analysis are made to determinate household mobility and household preferences in Istanbul with the help of the Pickvance Model (1968). Dependent variables are determinated tendency and mobility, and independent variables are other household characteristics like LCYC, age, income, occupancy etc. At the end of section five, the results of the thesis and proposals are given for the housing market. The results of the thesis are given below: - In the Istanbul Metropolitan area, population increases with a high rate and so does the housing demand. Households produce houses with their own methods. In this context, this problem must be urgently solved and housing demand must be canalised. - Household size has a tendency to decrease(3.76 persons.) Our social structure has changed from large family to nucleus family, resulting in the production of more middle size houses (80-100sqm.) Variations in the household sizes in Istanbul due to xin differences in socio-economic levels makes it necessary to examine the situation at district levels rather than the metropolitan level. - According to the 1990 Census; the rate of households which currently own their houses is 63.4%. In the sample area are this rate is 64.5%, which is very close to the result of the census (Gecekondu areas are not included in these rates, and the rates of occupancy are 63-83% in these areas, Sultanbeyii 83%, Sangazi 72%, Talatpaşa 74%, Soğuksu 63% etc.). The rate of households which own an additional house is 12.5%. This shows that a portion of the housing demand is canalised by speculative behaviour. - Households have different household mobility and residential location behaviours resulting from different socio-economic characteristics contrary to the Neo-Classical Economic Approach. In Istanbul households may not find the most suitable houses and environment they want. This causes heterogenic distribution and variation of households in the Istanbul Metropolitan area. - Different socio-economic huosehold characteristics like age, income, life-cycle, tendency, cause different household mobility behaviours. For example; - Older people are more likely to own their house than younger people - High income people are more likely to own their house than lower paid people - Owners are less likely to be mobile than tennants - Older people are less likely to be mobile than younger people - High income people are less likely to be mobile than lower paid people - Small households are more likely to be mobile than large households - The house and environment quality determined by the high income group is the drive behind the Residential Location behaviour of households in the Istanbul Metropolitan Area. - Household mobility in the Istanbul Metropolitan Area move out from the city centrum, within inside the suburbs and from suburbs to more distant locations. Proposals to help dealing with the prevalent problems are stated.