Yatırım projelerinin enflasyon etkilerinin gözönüne alınarak değerlendirilmesi

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Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
Yatırım projelerinin değerlendirilmesi amacıyle kullanılan yöntemler, özellikle enflasyonun ve risklerin yüksek olduğu ülkelerde, belirli uygulama güçlüklerine sahiptir. Para değerinde ve oransal değerlede zaman içinde değişmelere neden olan ve gelecek dönemlere ait nakit akım tahminlerinin yapılmasını zorlaştıran enflasyon, yatırım projelerini değerlendirme kriterlerine mutlaka katılmalıdır. Bu çalışmada, enflasyonun, yatırım projelerini değerlendirmede kullanılan yöntemlere ne şekilde yansıtılacağı incelenmiştir. İkinci bölümde, yatırım kavramına ilişkin bilgiler verilmiş, yatırımların çeşitli sınıflandırılma şekilleri ve değerlendirilmesi konulan üzerinde durulmuş, değerlendirmelerin, çeşitli kurum ve kişiler açısından ele alınış biçimi anlatılmıştır. Nakit akımları ve değerlendirilmesinde kullanılan temel kavramlar, paranın zaman değeri, iskontolama ve nakit akımlarının süreklilik durumlarına göre paranın zaman değerinin saptanış biçiminde meydana gelen farklılıklar üçüncü bölümde verilmiştir. Dördüncü bölümde, yatırım projelerinin değerlendirilmesinde kullanılan klasik yöntemler, bu yöntemlerin yarar ve sakıncaları ile yöntemlerin birbirlerine göre avantaj ve dezavantajlarından bahsedilmiştir. Aynı bölümde, riskli yatırım projelerinin değerlendirilmesi konusunda kullanılan kriterlere de değinilmiştir. Enflasyon kavramı, enflasyonun ölçülmesinde kullanılan endeks sayıları, enflasyonun nakit akışlarına ve yatırımlara etkisi beşinci bölümde anlatılmaya çalışılmıştır. Altıncı bölümde, yatırım projelerinin değerlendirilmesinde kullanılan net bugünkü değer kriterinin genel modelinin nasıl kurulduğu gösterilmiştir. Yedinci bölümde, bu çalışmanın temel konusu olan enflasyonun net şimdiki değer modeline nasıl dahil edilebileceği, çeşitli enflasyon koşulları altında değerlendirme yapılırken modelin ne gibi farklılıklar gösterebileceği anlatılmıştır. Son bölümde, artık geleneksel olarak niteleyebileceğimiz, bugün çok yaygın bir biçimde kullanılan net bugünkü değer kriteri ile, enflasyon altında kullanılmak üzere geliştirilmiş Reel Net Bugünkü Değer modelinin, uygulamada nasıl farklı sonuçlar verebileceği, bir örnek yardımıyle açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır.
There are three fundamental and essential decisions that must be continually made within the industrial firm if it is to survive. The first is to decide upon the objective of the firm - what service or product is to be produced, what market is to be served, and basically how the firm is to go about doing these. The second decision is concerned withwhom to hire and retain - which person, which skills, which abilities, which personalities, how many, and so forth. The third decision is about how the available resources of the firm - particularly money - shall be allocated : for which programs, to which departments, in what amounts, and under what conditions. All other decisions that take place within the firm are derivatives of these main three decisions, and it is these main three that give the "set", direction, and "flavor" to the individual firm - and generally spell its success or failure. In recent years, the thrust of the investment research has swung away from being merely descriptive of what is or was done and has moved toward what should be done within the firm in order to attain certain goals. Investment analysis has become goaloriented. Furthermore, at the outset we should recognize that the three fundamental decisions mentioned above are certainly not made in isolotion. One should not think for a moment that they can be separated completely or that there is no dependence among these three decisions. Obviously there is a relationship, because the whole concept of organization implies an interrelated system of persons, structures, machines, tools, materials, methods, money and other inputs. Certainly this system is phisically and temporally organized to produce some output or service of value - i.e., accomplish a stated objective. So all three decisions concerning the organizational objective, persons and their skills, and how money is to be allocated are in reality very much related. Nevertheless, we have attempted to separate the resource allocation decision and treat it in isolotion. There must be good reasons for doing this, and there are. First, the subject is one that is generally factual, its data are generally stated in numerical quantities, and its processes are generally amenable to mathematical formulation. Moreover, it is a repetitive decision in most firms, and the format of the decision remains somewhat constant over time (i.e., virtually the same fact are elicited, they are typically analyzed in the same manner, and generally the same persons, or their successors, make the decisions). V1U The most important consideration, however, is that the resource allocation decision is generally made about things that give a long-time "set" to the thrust of the organization. Capital expenditure decisions are made about capital items - what plants will be built, where they will be located, what processes will be used, how the plants will be equipped, what product will be made, what capacity the process will have, and so forth. In short, the consequences of capital expenditure decisions usually extend far into the future and typically shape the basic character of the firm. Furthermore, although capital expenditure decisions can usually be modified to some extent after they are made, they are seldom reversible. There is virtually no secondhand market for many types of industrial capital goods - only the scrap dealer. Thus, the alternative to a "bad" resource allocation decision is to scrap the project, recognize the loss, and start again. Because of these two factors- longevity and irreversibility - the resource allocation decision not only effectively commits the firm to a fixed technology but largely determines the level of the future operating expenses as well. An industrial project, or capital investment project, may be defined as any candidate project that involves the the outlay of cash in exchange for an anticipate return flow of future benefits. Returns or benefits may be monetary, or they may be nonmonetary if they can be expressed in money terms. It is the exchange of a present expenditure for future benefits that is the distinctive feature of the economic analysis of projects. In the last decade or so, it has become increasingly apparent that the choice is not always solely between executable alternatives. For one reason or another (usually restrictions of available capital) it is now generally imposible to execute all worthy (i.e., cost saving or profit improving) projects. Even though all candidate projects at the decision level may be technically feasible economically attractive, some must be selected and some rejected, typically because of a restriction in money or other resources. The real question facing the firm then, as a proxy representative of its owners, is whether or not a project should be accepted at all. This is a much different economic question - one that is based on a different decision criterion - than the typical economic alternative question answered by engineering economy. The economic analysis of industrial projects addresses itself to this fundamental question of whether a project should be selected at all. In effect, industrial project evaluation and selection uses economic and mathematical principles to answer the question, "Given a set of defined alternatives, what projects, if any, should the firm undertake ?" While the analytic methodology of project analysis has its roots in engineering economy, the traditional limited horizons of engineering economy have been pushed back much farther by project analysis. Now the question is "What is the best for the firm, overall " rather than, "Which of these alternatives should we do ?". IX Financial managers are usually deeply involved in operational budgeting, both in developing the budget and in reporting subsequent performance. They are also involved in capital budgeting and must be aware of factors that significantly affect both capital budgeting are made as the need arises and involve relatively large sums of money, long periods of funds commitment, and uncertainty caused by the lenght of time involved. A faulty capital budgeting decision may result in bankruptcy, difficult cash flow problems or, at the very least, a failure to optimize the operations of the firm. Most firms approach these decisions with gravity and constantly seek ways of improving the capital budgeting prosess. The use of analysis is an alternatives to making decisions in a programmed manner or completely instinctively. In one way or another the pros and cons of each alternative are investigated. Expert advice and available data are factored into the choice. Analysis is used when decisions are complex and alternatives differ substantially from each other. These are often one-of-a-kind decisions. They can take a variety of forms. One example is establishing a policy for a recurring set of decisions. For instance, purchasing decisions can be analyzed in detail to establish a rule for reordering. Some decisions arise either once or so infrequently that no policy or prodecure is developed for them. Although these decisions may not arise often, they can be crucial to success of an organization. Analysis involves a conscious, purposeful effort directed at determining the proper choice for these decisions. As we will see, this does not rule out using intuition but allows intuition to be used along with the other inputs to an analysis. The methods and concepts are intended to clarify and simply decisions. The aim is to help decision makers to make better decisions. The approach is fundamental, starting from primitive notions of information and individual preferences. The purpose is to provide decision makers with a clear understanding of both the limitations and potential benefits of formal analysis. Methods and techniques for modeling decisions and choosing among alternatives will be described in detail. There is no single best method for every situation, so the available options are presented. Under condition that can be precisely defined, individuals who follow the procedures will make choices consistent with their own preferences. An investment contains funds having a big amount to be used for obtaining a profitable cash flow during its economic life. Firms may not only use their own funds but also externals. Whatever the resources of the funds is, they must supply new fund opportunities and increase availables. Managers have problems when they make decision to find how they will use these funds. Available methods may give them different results for the project in many cases. Moreover, countries' economic patterns, inflation, risk and uncertainty make the decision making more difficult. Especially, the inflation rate and the risks, the projects have, affect the selection the best alternative among the projects and moreover the determining "how a project we analysing, is profitable, too. The inflation, not only change the future value of the money, but also the ratio between income and costs of the project. Because, the cost of the production elements and the price of the commodity are not affected in same way. So, this move in the balance between costs and incomes become the most important problem in the selection. In many ways, the common decision making criterias may not fluently give the solution to understand how the investment project is profitable. For instance, the Net Present Value Method has some difficulties in practice, due to determine the future cash flow according to present prices and costs, and then take these values to present. In the second part of this study, concept of investment and classification in different perspectives, have been mentioned. In the third part, basic cash flow definitions and value of the money according to the time by taking the cash flow continuty in care, have been explained. In the fourth part, common methods for evaluating investment project, - Net present value, - Anual equivalent benefit - cost rate, - Internal rate of return, and etc., And the comparisons among these methods with their good and bad sides, and a brief about decision making under uncertainty, have been stated. In part five, the inflation, relationships between inflation and interest, inflation effects on the new investment opportunities, and the using of the Index numbers for measuring the inflation rate, have been mentioned. In part six and seven, the Net Present Value Model and its rebuilding according to environment, affected by inflation, in the case of different inflation rate, and creating a general model for the Net Present Value under inflation, have been explained. In eighth part, the differences taking place in transition from The Net Present Value Criteria to The Reel Net Present Value Model created for using in the economic conditions have inflation, the advantages of this new methods and disadvantages of the classic NPV methods. Decision Making for the new project in the countries having a high inflation rate, especially over %30-40, must be performed by using the criteria of inflation and risk. This study have been focused on the inflation, its effects on investments, and the determining methods including inflation.
Tez (Yüksek Lisans) -- İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, 1994
Anahtar kelimeler
Endüstri ve Endüstri Mühendisliği, Enflasyon, Yatırım projeleri, Industrial and Industrial Engineering, Inflation, Investment projects