Teknik analiz

Abstract

Giriş bölümünü takip eden ikinci bölümde hisse se netleri hakkında bilgiler yeralmaktadır. Bu bölümde hisse senetlerinin tanımı, çeşitleri, değerleri ve ekonomik önem ve işlevleri anlatılmıştır. Üçüncü bölümde genel olarak hisse senedi değerlen dirilmesinde kullanılan analiz yöntemlerine değinilmiştir. Bu bölümde temel analiz, rassal yürüyüş ve teknik analiz konuları özet olarak anlatılmıştır. Ayrıca bu analiz yön temlerinin birbirlerine karşı avantaj ve dezavantajlarına da değinilmiştir. Dördüncü bölümde ise tezin ana konusunu teşkil eden teknik analiz yöntemi mümkün olduğunca ayrıntılı olarak anlatılmıştır. Dördüncü bölümün ilk konusu teknik analizin temel direği niteliğinde olan fiyat grafikleridir. Bu bölümde fiyat grafiklerinin çeşitleri, kullanılması, yorumlanması konularına değinilmiştir. Teknik analizin ikinci konusu ise fiyat trendleri nin yönünün belirlenmesinde yıllardır kullanılan Dow Teorisi'dir. Bu bölümde Dow Teorisi ve trend çeşitleri anlatılmıştır. Dördüncü bölümün ikinci konusu ise fiyat formasyonlarıdır. Bu bölümde borsada yaygın olarak kulla nılan, alım-satım kararlarında en güvenilir formasyonlar örneklerle desteklenerek anlatılmıştır. Fiyat formasyonlarından sonraki konu ise teknik analiz araçlarıdır. Bu bölümde alım-satım kararları verir ken kullanılan bazı göstergelere yer verilmiştir. Son bölümde ise genel piyasa analizi konusu anla tılmıştır. Bu bölümde genel olarak borsanın psikolojik yö nüne değinilmiştir. Ayrıca profesyonel teknik analistlerin alım-satım kararları konusundaki tavsiyelere yer verilmiş tir.

Stock exchange is an important establishment availing supply of funds to the economy, as well as spreading the share capital horizontally throughout vast populace. Commercial enterprises of capital markets obtain their capital needs by means of stock exchance, meanwhile propriators of accumulated capitals acquire partnership of companies, thus earning shares on revenues. Times and again, owners of hefty capitals purchase sizeable stocks through the stock exchange. Here, the motivation is being become a sharehalder of the subject matter corporation and obtain a membership in administrative echelons. Bue to having different targets rates of shares at stock exchange do not directly concern the investor. In order to obtain sufficient amount of shares they sometimes offer higher prices. Stock exchange price index are freely formed according to daily circumstances between the purchaser and purveyor. Market values of shares are reassesed in the stock exchange each day according to market trends of supply and demands, undulating up and down. Here the long term investor sticks to puchase-and-wait policy, whereas the speculators buy and sell often trying to get the better of undulation. The notion of benefiting from unceaseless undulation of prices attract many speculators to the stock exchange, they immediately purchase extremely down trended shares to avoid further plunge. In the same way, they hinder a fast rising stock by selling out. With such behaviour the speculators act as essential balancing means of stock exchanges. They provide the market being continuously liquid through unceasing purchases and sales. In order to acquire material gains at stock exchanges via speculative movement, a few worldwide- accepted methods of analyses are put into action. The basic analysis is to examine economical movements of the market and form a future projection. The financial analysis concerns examinations of financial and otherwise standing (balance sheets, periodic financial statements, etc.) of the corporations which stocks are traded on the stock exchange, to calculate balanced prices. The random method maintains that the prices move randomly and claims such trends shall also be effective in the future. Technical analysis, on the other hand, takes the price formations at the stock exchanges as basis. Price graphics are prepared to determine supply and demand trend. The factors effecting prices are both economical as well as psychological, the latter effect being on the stronger side. Information pertaining to corporations, views, fears and joys, future expectations, in all form pozitive or negative effects on supply and demand. Number - vii - of shares and cash in circulation are considered as being one of the most important effects. Increases in one in proportion to the other, cause price fluctuations. No opinion can reject that activities of commercial corporations wield preater influence on formation of share prices. Succesfully administered corporations always find purchases in stock exchanges, failing firms, however, are unable to create demand. It is often impossible to determine the time of psychological effect and their effects on the stock prices. A flashing news may stir the public to form gloomy opinions about the stock exchanges. The psychological factors may sometimes collectivelly effect the stock exchange, sometimes, again effect a particular stock exchange or a share. To be fully knowledgeable of all effects determinning the prices and interpreting them appropriately, are mostly impossible. No one can know how the such effects may be reflected onto tomorrow's prices. Best method to know yesterday is to form graphics showing former price trends. The initial inception point for technical apporoach is based on DOW theory. In 1800s An author at Wall Street Journal. E.CHARLES DOW begun arguing about DOW theory in his articles. According to DOW Theory, development of stock prices in time is a consequence of revenue realizations and they are effected by balancing prices which are not directed by speculators. Balancing prices reflect general value of revenues to be obtained in the future. When the stock exchange rate exceeds the balancing price, a reverse reaction shall be formed and prices shall plunge. As the price undulates within a short period of time, it shall trend to plunge in the long run. When the stock price is dropped under the balancing price, purchases shall commence and surge upwards. The DOW Theory collects extant pricing movements in the stock exchange, in three groups. Firstly, it is explained in terms of long term direction of the initial trend continuing for a period of 3-4 years which also styled as the main trend. The second is middle-term movements formed as a consequence of errors partaining to the period of assimilating the acquired profits, and the third is daily movements not effecting the general development of the price trend which was formed as a consequence of speculative activity. Owing to the daily price fluctuations revealing movement as a consequence of short term effects, do not render information to avail general trend, these are not taken into consideration. According to DOW Theory upsurging market is formed of three stages. The initial stage, is the period which the prices are increasing from a bottom point. The second stage comprised of sizeable upsurges on top of the first rice. At the last stage of upsurge trend price increases are speeded up, and well exceed the balancing prices. - vin - Small and big Investors from all walks of life run to the stock exchange. The last stage developed in short time and speedily, indicates according to DOW Theory that upsurge is nearing to a halt. Droping trend, too, is developed in three stages. The first stage evolves as a consequence of the upsurging trend where declining in prices are seen. Upsurging effects remain flimsy. The second stage reveals disappointment and desperation because of decline. Sizeable dropping trend all economical indications are agains the benefit of the stock exchange. Through waves of panic the indexes further plunge even down of the balancing prices. Interest in stock exchange leaves itself to a gross disappointment. Subsequently the last panic sales the prices are settled. And the period of of upsurge trend begins. After admittance of DOW Theory the technical analysis is developed with passing of time. Today it become the most important helper of stock exchanges where free formation of prices are realized. The graphics forming basis to the technical analysis, reveal yesterday and today of price alternations clearly and specifially. Even though, price of stocks show daily alterations. It can be clearly witnessed by graphics that, they periodically advance forward a particular direction. This trend remains to be valid until balance of supply and demand is disturbed. As the balance of supply and demand is altered sooner or later as a result of a factor, a new trend commences. The technical analysis; assumes that future price movements may be estimated by means of assesment of former price trends. Should we accept that former price trends were effected formerly by means of retional and irrational trends as it is today, being fully knowledgeable of the past seems important. The technical analysis may shortly be summarized as a a method of analysing all trends in the stock exchanges either past or current. The highest, the lowest, opening and closing prices, amount and volume of transaction, number of agreements are data which used in the analysis. The technical analysis is acceptable for monitoring trends and effecting future rates determination of gold, foreigh currency, silver, cotton, or other agricultural products. According to basic principle of the technical analysis, it is wrong to assess prices formed between supply and demand, by only taking balance sheets into consideration. On accounts that the balance sheets are outdated on the date they are publicized. Parties being informed of them already effected he prices, plus the balance sheets indicate values of the past. This assertation will not be concerned with facts of the documents or which items of them are reflected differently. The technical analysis has also has a superior side in comparising to financial analysis, i.e., easier access to data. Here, the widespread criticism is, owing to the fact that it is not a proper discipline, - ix - thus, handi copped by descriptive and identificative difficulties. The some graphics may be interpreted differently according to different individuals. Technical analysis is generally used to assist the fundemental analysis instead of replacing it. The technical analyst is basically concerned with the general routine of the shares market and the price and quantity of shares of the firm he's working on, and he records these movements on graphs. Here he relies on the assumption that investors will display the same behaviour in time and as a result buying and selling trends of the past can be used in predicting future price movements. Firms forming the market have living stlyles of their own regardles of investment values of their shares, and fundemental analysis does not consider the investors feelings, who are one of the most important determiners of the market, however, the supply and demand in the capital market is formed by people. In the formation of prices, expectations, fears, joys and sorrows contribute as well as the information. It is not possible to know all these factors and to calculate the impact it will cause on the prices. On the other hand thousands of buyers and sellers fix the prices everyday under the effect of these factors. If the price of a share happens to be 2000 TL and goes up to 12.000 TL in three months, which sudden change in the company's financial structure or in the economy can explain the situation. Those who accept that prices formed in the stock exchange reveal positive or negative expectations investigate the future by means of technical analysis. Shares follow certain trends. This trend is valid until the supply and demand equilibrium is disturbed. Where this balance is upset certain shapes are formed. These shapes usually shed light to the future of the share. This assertation examines variability of stock prices objectively, where theory is included more than commentary. In the second chapter; stock certificates are represented in general terms, their importance and functions in the economy were evaluated. The third chapter covers basic analysis, random trends and the technical analysis in brief narration, where, their advantages and disadvantages were compared. x - he fourth chapter is belong to the technical analysis, which is the basis this assertation. Initially, the graphic drawing and. graphic types were rendered. Subsequently, price formations, types, functions, their interpretation were scrutinized. After such formations, the most important technical analysis means were revealed. These interpretations were enriched with sample graphics. For the general market analysis, some important pointers were made, and psychological aspects of the stock exchange was looked into.