Türkiye’de Sosyal Yardımların Emek Arzı Üzerindeki Etkileri

Abstract

Bu tezde, 2000'li yıllarda Türkiye'de yeniden yapılandırılarak miktar ve kapsam olarak artan sosyal yardımların, hanehalkı üyelerinin emek arzı kararları üzerindeki etkileri incelenmektedir. Yoksul haneleri desteklemeyi ve gelir eşitsizliğini azaltmayı hedefleyen sosyal yardım politikalarına karşı yöneltilen temel eleştirilerinden biri yardım alan kişilerin emek arzı kararları üzerinde negatif bir etki yaparak, kişilerin işgücü piyasasından çekilmesi, bununla bağlantılı sosyal dışlanmayı beraberinde getirmesi ve yardımlara bağımlılığı pekiştirmesidir. 2010 yılı Hanehalkı Bütçe Anketi (HHBA) mikro verileri ile yapılan analizlerde, hanehalkına yapılan sosyal yardımların kentte ve kırda yaşayan kadınlar için emek arzı olasılığı üzerindeki etkisi zıt yönlü olarak bulunmuştur. Kentte yaşayan kadınlarda istatistiksel olarak negatif ve anlamlı, kırda yaşayan kadınlarda ise istatistiksel olarak pozitif ve anlamlı bir etki bulunmaktadır. Erkekler için ise hem kent hem de kır düzeyinde istatistiksel olarak anlamsız ve emek arzı üzerindeki etkisi negatif katsayılar ile tahmin edilmiştir. Öyle ki, hanelere yapılan ortalama sosyal yardım miktarı göz önünde bulundurulduğunda, emek arzı üzerindeki olumsuz etkinin pratik olarak işgücünden çekilmeyi veya çalışma saatlerini azaltmayı tetikleyen etkilerinin son derece kısıtlı olduğu bulgulanmaktadır. Ancak sosyal yardım ödemelerinin miktarına göre yaptığımız ayrıştırılmış analizler, haneye yapılan sosyal yardımların belirli bir miktarın üzerine çıktığında kentte yaşayan kadınların emek arzı üzerindeki negatif baskısının çok daha etkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Öte yandan sosyal yardımların yoksulluğu azaltmak üzerindeki sonuçları açısından 2010 HHBA verileri yaptığımız bir simülasyon ile örneklem içerisinde yoksulluk sınırının altında yer alan hane yüzdesinin mevcut sosyal yardımlar ile %21'den %18'e indirildiği gözlemlenmiştir. Sosyal yardımlar ile birlikte 252 kişi açlık, 764 kişi ise yoksulluk sınırının üzerine çıkmaktadır. Bununla birlikte, Türkiye'de sosyal yardım politikalarının, hanelerin yoksulluk sınırının üzerine çıkartılması ve gelir eşitsizliğinin azaltılması hedeflerinin ötesinde, işgücü piyasasına entegrasyonu ve sosyal içermeyi de temel alan bir şekilde yapılandırılması önem atfetmektedir.

This thesis aims to investigate the impact of social transfer payments on labor supply decisions in Turkish labor market. Social transfers payment in Turkey have been restructured and increased in terms of amount and scope since in 2000?s. A major criticism of social transfers is that, although they aim to support poor households and reduce income inequality, they can also have a detrimental impact in terms negative influence on labor supply decisions, exclusion from the labor market and create dependency. The analysis in this thesis is based on the micro data of the 2010 Household Budget Survey using an ordered probit model to investigate the impact of social transfer payments on labor supply decisions. 2010 Household Budget Survey which was designed for the purpose of data collection on socio-economic status, consumption expenditures and income components was conducted on 10.042 sample households for the period 1 January 2010 ? 31 December 2010. In our model, an individual is allowed to choose from three mutually exclusive alternatives; non-working, part-time and full-time. Individuals are assumed to choose according to these choices so as to maximaze their utility. On the other side, explanatory variables in the model include earnings in different states. However, earnings information of individuals who do not work is not available. Therefore, earnings in each state are estimated for all individuals using the information available for individulas who are already working. An earnings equation is corrected for sample selection by including the inverse Mills ratios. The probability of selection into each state is first estimated by fitting the model of choice of state. Using the predicted probablities obtained from this model, selectivity term is calculated by standart normal density function and normal distribution function. In the second step the selectivity term computed from these probabilities is used as an additional regressor in the earning equations to control for selectivity bias. The results show that social transfers have a negative impact on labor supply decisions of particularly women who live in urban areas, however these effects are very small. When the average amount of social transfers are considered, the impact on labor supply is not significant and its effects are very limited practically in terms of withdrawal from labor market or reduction of working hours. According to the results of decisions of the empirical study, social transfers do not exert a statistically significant ef negative efect on the full-time labor supply of men both in urban and rural areas. In this thesis gender differentiated findings are explained due to high proportion of widows and female wages in social transfers. Also, as expected, increasing amount of transfers cause the impact on labor supply decisions to increase. Today, poverty is closely associated with unemployment and the most important source of income is coming from labor especially for the poor. But, people who gain income via their labor either work in a low-income job or as informal labor.Thus, social transfers become more significant for these individuals. In general, the poor who can not work regular jobs tend to receive social transfers. Therefore, countries aim to reduce their dependence on social transfers. At this point, policies to increase the demand for labor through investment incentives, or to enhance the employability of the working age population through education/skill programs in line with workforce needs, naturally constitute a significant role in the process of combating poverty and social exclusion. However, social transfer practices comprise an equally important dimension of this process. Social transfers can enable people to overcome barriers to escaping poverty. The poor often face a limited set of economic opportunities and can find themselves trapped in a cycle of low income and low growth. For example, the poor are frequently highly credit constrained because they lack the assets to use as collateral to access loans. Social transfers, if they are regular and reliable, or effectively combined with other interventions, can help to alleviate this credit constraint. Bearing in mind that only 45 percent of Turkey?s potential labor-force is employed, it is easy to appreciate the seriousness of the problem of unemployment. Generally, unemployment is discussed as the principal factor in causing poverty. However, being unemployed in the city (as opposed to rural areas) and social transfer programs inability to participate in social activities, may mean that the paths to social integration will be blocked, that society may dissolve and become atomized or divided into communities of the excluded. Therefore, social transfer policy cannot address the eradication of poverty by itself; it has to take into consideration the threat of social exclusion as well. In Turkey, anti-poverty policies need to focus beyond the support for poor households, also on labor market integration and social inclusion. At this point, social policies in Turkey play a role in the elimination of income inequality and decreasing the number of households below the poverty line through creating a dependency on cash transfers rather than promoting sustainable integration in the labor market .