Yatırım çalışmalarının hazırlanması ve kredi faizinde sabit-değişken seçimi

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 'yatırımlar' konusu ele alınmaktadır. Yatırımların tanım ve süreci, yatırım fikrinin doğuşu, talep ve pazar analizleri, yatırım çalışmalarının teknik yönleri, yapılabilirlik etüdlerinin hazırlanması, yatırım tutarının finanse edilmesi finans kaynakları ve kredilerde uygulanan sabit değişken fa iz seçeneklerinin değerlendirilmesi, yatırımın değerlendirilmesi yapılmıştır. Birinci bölümde, genel olarak yatırımlar konusu ele alınıp, bu konudaki görüşlere yer verilmiştir. İkinci bölümde, yatırım kavramı üzerinde durulup, yatırım türleri belirtilmektedir. Türkiye'de son yıllarda gerçekleştirilen yatırımlar ve türlerine göre dağılımları da bu bölümde tablolar halinde sunulmuştur. Ayrıca yatırım süreci konusunda bilgi verilmiştir. Üçüncü bölümde, yatırım imkanları ele alınmıştır. Yatırım fikrinin doğu şu ve ilk değerlendirme hakkında açıklamalar yapılmıştır. Dördüncü bölümde, pazar ve talep araştırmaları, pazar ve talep araştırmalarının amacı, yöntemleri konusunda bilgi verilmiştir. Beşinci bölümde, teknik analizler alt başlıklar halinde iletilmiştir. Bunlar yer seçimi, kapasite seçimi, üretim teknolojisi, atıklama sistemleri, bina ve şantiyenin yerleşimi, iş programlarının hazırlanmasıdır. Her bir altbaşlık ayrı ayrı açıklanmıştır. Altıncı bölümde, yapılabilirlik etüdleri içeriği hakkında genel bir bilgi den sonra yatırım tutarını oluşturan sabit yatırım tutan ve işletme sermayesi hakkında açıklamalar yapılmıştır. Sabit yatırımları oluşturan kalemler ayrıntılarıyla bildirilmiştir. Yedinci bölümde, yatırınım finansman kaynakları belirtilmiştir. Ayrıca uzun vadeli kredi kaynakları ve sabit-değişken faiz seçimi için yapılan görüş meler ve istatistiki çalışma bu bölümde rapor edilmiştir. Sekizinci bölümde, mühendislik tekniklerinin proje değerlendirmede kullanılması, risk durumlarında proje değerlendirmede kullanılacak yöntemler hakkında bilgi verilmiştir. Dokuzuncu bölümde, NASAŞ Alüminyum Sanayi AŞ. için hazırlanan 'Folyo Değerlendirme Yatırımı' uygulaması yeralmaktadır. Sonuç ve öneriler bölümünde ise, yatırımların uygulama öncesinde yapı lan çalışmalar, yapılabilirlik etüdleri konusunda genel bir değerlendirme yapılmakta, bazı öneriler sunulmaktadır.

As 1993 approaches, markets are opening not just in Western Europe but throughout the world in Eastern Europe, Asia... trade walls that have stood for decades are beginning to crumble in the phase of political unrest and technological innovation. In unticipation of these changes, a do-or-die athmosphete is driving many European, Japanese, American, and our companies to become broad-based competitors. And in the deal- oriented atmosphere that has ensued, aggressive competitos are after forced to make critical decisions fast on whether and how to expand into uncharted terrain. In this atmosphere, firms have to take investmen decision from today so as to survive. The basic characteristic of an investment is that is generally involves a current outlay of fonts expected to yield a flow of benefits in future. A change of historic proportion is occuring in today's competitive environment, one that calls for an equally historic response in organizational structure and competitive strategies. While product demands placed on firms are changing in dramatic ways. Product life cycles are shorter, demand for product choice and custimization is swelling, pressures for globalization and technological innovation are overwelling. The firms need to respond to change with stable and long- term, yet flexible and responsive, process capabilities are greater than ever before. Todays manager must be able to meet what had traditionally been contradictory requirements; continiously deliver customized, high-quality goods and services; and at the same time keep costs down and get products to market quickly. It is a must to estimate fixed assets very carefully. Fixed investment outlay should support future needs. But it will couse financial difficulties in case fixed investment outlays is too high. Fixed investment is realized in a short time but it yields over long time period. VIII I Especially for undeveloped and developing countries, investments which is the way to development should be optimal. Capital expenditure decisions are often of great importance for the following reasons: 1. They have consequences which are long-term in nature. Capital expenditures provide the fromework of the future activities of the firm and shape its basic character. 2. Capital expenditures usually involve substantial outlays. 3. Capital expenditure commitments cannot be easily reversed. The market of second-hand capital equipment is often ill-organized and is perhaps non-existent for highly specialized equipment, Hence, it is difficult to reverse capital expenditure decisions. The process of capital expenditure management may be divided into five broad phases concerned with idenification, formulation, appraisal, selection, and implementation of projects. The requirements of these phases are mentioned below. -Identification: Imaginative scannign of the environment to asses threats and opportunities. -Formulation: Translation of an investment opportunity into concrete project with its important aspects delineated broadly. -Appraisal: Searching analysis and evaluation of market, technical, financial and economic characteristics. -Selection: Rational choice in the light of objectives and constraints. -Implemantation: Expeditious completion within the resources budgets. The important aspects of a project are shown below. Product or service: Technical characteristics of the product/service and its usage. Market and demand: Consumers and their characteristics, nature of competition, potential aggregate demand, and likely share of the proposed project. Technical and engineering: Location, scale of operations, manufacturing process, specification of equipment, plant layout, and work schedules. Investment and financing: Outlay on fixed assets, requirements of current assets, and mix of fmancing-logn-term and short-term. IX Financial evaluation Costs and benefits in financial terms, criterion of merit (like net present value or internal rate of return), and risk characteristics. The field of investments it enormously vast. Theoretically, an entrepeneur has an infinitely wide choice with respect to his project. The important dimensions of choice are: product/service, market, technology, equipment, scale of production, time-phasing, and location. In view of the vast range of possibilities, the task of identification tends to be somewhat difficult. This task, it may be noted, is concerned with identifying investment opportunities which are pre-feasibility feasible and promising and which merit further examination and appraisal. Evaluation of the market and potential demand for a project is an important dimension of project appraisal. The viability of a project depends crucially on the demand for its output. Often projects are abondoned because market evaluaton suggests inadequate projected demand. The basic questions raised in evaluating the market and demand for a project are: 1. What would the aggregate demand in future be? 2. What would the market share of the proposed project be? 3. What is the appropriate marketing and distribution policy for the proposed project? To answer the above questions the market analyst requires a wide variety of information and appropriate forecasting methods. In marketing research, a distinction is usually made between primary information and secondary information. Primary information is that which is collected to meet specific needs; secondary information, in contrast, is that which is in existence and which has been gathered and analyzed in some other context. Technical anaysis consist of location, size, production techology, equipment, effluent disposal system, layout, building and planned work schedule. Investment outlay consist of fixed investment and working capital. Fixed investment refers to investment which has a long life. It is found of sum of following items. 1- Engineering and design cost : It is considered as market & demand analysis. 2- Know-how, patent, lisans payment 3- Land location : land value and site development costs. 4- Construction cost : main and auxilary buildings and rent & depreciation of construction machines. 5- Transportation cost 6- Plant equipment & machinery : This is major item of fixed investment. 7- Auxiliary facilities 8- Importation and custom expences 9- Erection expences 10- All other (general) expences. 11- Transportation veicle expences (car, truck etc). 12- Start-up expences 14- Investment interest payment The second item of investment outlay is warking capital. The term working capital is defined in two ways : gross capital and net working capital. Gross working capital represents the total investments in current assets which consist of i) raw material ii) stores & spares iii) work-in process; iv) finished goods, v) deptors vi) cash and bank balances. Net working capital is defined as gross working capital less current liabilities. Feasibilty report does not mean aynthing unless it is applied. So as to realize investment, investment outlays, fixed investment and working capital must be finansed. The sources of finance available to a business firm may be classified follows. -Share capital (equity and preference) - Bonds XI - Credits - Government incentives. Share capital consists of paid-up equity and preference capital. Equity capital represents the contribution made by the owners of the business- the equity shareholders, who provide the risk capital. There is no fixed commitment for payment of dividend to equity shareholders. Preference capital caries a fixed rate of dividend. Bond represents a dept which has a maturity period and intrest rate. A number of financial institutions which now represent the most important sowce of long term for industrial projects have been established. These institutions may be home or foreign. Two different credit types may be chosen by investors. They are fixed interest rated credit and flexible interest rate. Fixed interest rates calculated over 3- month Tressury Bond rate + 3% comission. For long term credits, a sencitive analys should be hold to determine which choise brings less financial cost. For an evaluation of the investment several appraisal criteria are available. Methods for evaluation can be sorted like net present value, rate of return, profitability index. But none of these methods take in to consideration risk and uncertainty associated with the project. It is important to clarify what it is meant by terms, like risks and uncertaity. Risk relates to insurable event, such as risk of fire, mortality, or etc. Uncertinity must be taken account at evaluation stage. There are several methods to calculate risk level and its effect on investment.The most popular one is sencitivity analysis. The others listed as risk-adjusted discount rate method, certainty equivalent method, probability analysis, deacision trees, game theory. All after that we choose a profitable project. It stars off with applying program and follow with start-up. An extra care is shown at this stage. Cuntrols must be continued reqularly. You will find a feasibilty case study in chapter 9.