Edirne-İstanbul-Ankara-Hatay koridorunda 1965, 1970, 1975, 1980 ve 1985 yılları itibarıyla şehirlerarası kamyon trafiğinin tahmini

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, şehirlerarası karayollarında kamyon trafiğinin tahminine yönelik olarak, Türkiye şartları için geliştirilmiş 'Taşın Faktörleri Metodu" incelenmiş ve bu metodun, ülkemizde kamyon trafiği açısından oldukça önemli bir yeri bulunan E-5 Karayolu üzerinde uygulaması yapılmıştır. Amaç, 1960-1963-1965 yılları verileri ve Türkiye genelinde 72 adet il çifti kullanılarak geliştirilen bu metodun, 1965-1970-1975-1980-1985 verileri ve uygulama güzergahı olarak ta E-5 koridoru alınarak, elde edilecek sonuçların karşılaştırılmasıdır. Çalışmanın birinci bölümünde, gelişmiş ülkelerde, şehiriçi ulaşım sorunlarına ve trafikteki otomobil yoğunluğuna bağlı olarak geliştirilen ve genellikle şehiriçi otomobil trafiği üzerine kurulan trafik tahmin metotlarının, kamyon trafiğinin yoğun olduğu ülkemiz karayollarında uygun sonuçlar vermeyeceği belirtilmiştir. Şehirlerarası karayollarımızda trafiğin tahmininde, söz konusu kamyon trafiği dikkate alınması gereken bir unsurdur. Bu çalışmada, genel trafik içindeki kamyon trafiğinin yoğunluğu dikkate alınarak, belli bir koridor üzerindeki iller arasında kamyon trafiğinin tahmini araştırılmıştır. İkinci bölümde ise yük taşıma talebini belirleyen faktörlere değinilerek, ekonomik gelişmişlikle yük taşıma talebi arasındaki ilişki, yük taşımacılığında karayollarının payı ve E-5 Karayolu'nun önemi üzerinde durulmuştur. Ayrıca bu bölümde yük taşımacılığının ulaştırma türleri arasındaki dağılımı ve karayolu yük taşımacılığının diğer ulaştırma türlerine göre avantajları belirtilmiştir. Çalışmanın son bölümünde ise "Taşın Faktörleri Metodu" incelenmiş ve bu metodun E-5 koridorundaki il çiftlerine uygulaması yapılmıştır. Taşın faktörleri metodu, kamyon trafiğinin oluşum koşullarının tamamen ekonomik ve ticari etkilere dayandığı gerçeğinden hareket etmektedir. Metodun elemanları; şehirlerin nüfusları, katma değerleri ve aralarındaki mesafelerdir. Metotta "İl bazında katma değerler" gibi genel bir ekonomik göstergeden faydalanılarak, kamyon trafiğinin ekonomik ve ticari taşını temsil eden niteliklerinin ifade edilebileceği öngörülmüştür. Uygulama 1965-1970-1975- 1980-1985 yıllarını ve yedi adet il çiftini içermektedir. Taşın faktörlerinin hesabında Trafik adı verilen ve Turbo Pascal dilinde yazılan bilgisayar programı, regresyon ve korelasyon analizlerinde ise Storm paket programı kullanılmıştır. Neticede beş yıla ait birer adet lineer ve birer adet üslü fonksiyon elde edilmiştir. Ayrıca bu beş yıla ait dataların aynı grup içinde birlikte değerlendirilmeleriyle genel bir üslü ifadeye ulaşılmıştır. Ve elde edilen bu genel üslü ifade, daha önceki çalışmaya ait genel üslü ifadeyle oldukça benzer bir sonuç vermiştir. Hesap sonuçlan eklerde ayrıca verilmiştir.

In this study, "movement factor method" developed for the forecasting of truck traffic on our intercity highways has been discussed. In addition it has been applied to the E-5 highway which has an important truck traffic. As it is well known by the concerned that the speedy development achieved by the transportation sector and also the fast increased number of motor vehicle production, made it necessary to develope various number of forecasting methods. But, it is obvious that one cannot expect such established methods to give the appropriate results for the countries with different levels of development. In the first section of the study it has made known that the transportation is mostly concentrated on automobile in the developed countries and, therefore, it has been stated that the truck traffic among the general traffic circulation did not have a noticeable ratio. For this reason, most of the methods maintained in these countries are based on the car traffic. In addition, as the urbanization in developed countries are very fast and the also the problems faced as a result of fast urbanization; made the above mentioned traffic estimation methods to be formed in such a way just to be an answer to the internal city requirements. As the industrial and agricultural product transformation requirements in the developed countries are being balanced by rail, sea, river and air transformation in addition to the land transportation; the intercity roads which are built mainly for the car traffic sufficient enough to meet the heavy duty vehicle requirements which has just a small ratio among the total land transportation vehicles. As far as undeveloped countries are concerned, the different properties of the roads are that the heavy duty vehicle ratio among the general traffic is being higher than the others. In addition, within the countries where they have completed their development orbit, the industrial sectors which have heavy transportation requirements such as "essential raw material industry" is less than the one existed in the countries which are at the initial stage of industrialization and IX thus as a positive result of such, it sets forth the conclusion of the higher demand for the transportation in undeveloped countries. The aside conclusion, together with itself, it brings the requirement of heavy duty vehicle transportation to take importance on the intercity highways in such mentioned undeveloped countries. Within the contents of section two, by specifying the properties of the transportation market, the relationship between the economic progress and the demand for transportation has been studied. Furthermore, in this secjion, the conditions of load transportation in Turkey as well as the importance of E-5 highway have been discussed. As much as the level of economical progress is being achieved, the demand for transportation services are being decreased proportionally. In other words, in general, the increased ratio of the demand for the transportation services maintained in the undeveloped countries is more than the increased ratio of gross domestic product (GDP) whereas the contrary has been noted for the developed countries. If we specify the ratio of proportional alteration of the demand of transportation services to gross domestic product (GDP) alteration ratio as transportation flexibility, we may specify the above mentioned conclusion as follows: 'The transportation flexibility in the undeveloped countries is, in general, higher than 1, and whereas it is lower than 1 in the developed countries." No doubt, the most important and dependable measurement for economical activities is the gross domestic a country. Aside from GDP, the important material and row material production quantity such as coal, mineral ores and mines, cereals, petro-chemical products, etc.; is the indicator of economical activities. Any alteration which is noted on the value of the gross domestic product (i.e. production increase of consumption material or investment material, export increase, etc.) obviously shall have effect on the demand of transportation. In the medium and long run, one can assume close relationship between GDP and cargo transportation. As explained previously, the concentration of this relationship varies according to the level of the economical development. If the economy is ahead of the industrialization, under such circumstances, the industrial sector is being specified by the essential raw material industry. As the essential raw material industry is an industry which has a heavy transportation requirement; in such a case as much as the economical activities are increased, proportionally the transportation demand shall be increased more fast than the other. When the industrialization process is being completed, the contrary to the above mentioned shall be the case. The proportional increase on the transportation demand shall be lower than the proportional increase of the economical activities. Within the contents of the this section, the existing transportation system of Turkey has been studied and it has been noted that on the intercity highways the heavy duty vehicle traffic is at a very high ratio. I.e., the share of land cargo transportation based on ton/km in the year 1960, among the other transportation systems, was 38 % whereas it has been realized as 81 % in the year 1990 on the highways. The share of passenger transportation on the highways was 73 % in the year 1960, and whereas it reached to 94.6 % in the year 1990. As it can be seen from the above given figures, mainly the transportation no matter under what tittle, is being done via land transport in our country and therefore there is a great unsuitability between the market share ratio of the various transportation systems. On the other hand, if the land transportation share among the other transportation systems are being considered as of 1970, the European average being as 48 %, the Asian average being as 36.1 % and the world average being as 28.6 % is considered, it can easily be seen that the cargo transportation by land in our country is much more higher than the given three averages. The same share ratio is also existing for the passenger transportation by land among the other transportation systems for Europe was 84.4 %, for Asia 65.1 % and for world was 81.6 % in the year 1970. At the last section of the study, the " Movement Factor Method " which is related to the estimation of the intercity truck traffic has been presented and the application of the method is being done for the city couples located on E- 5 corridor. XI The majority of the methods for the intercity highway traffic estimations which is used in the developed countries is accepting as the traffic unit the car traffic as a base whereas the situation is different our country. It is not suitable to use the developed methods in our country. In place, it shall be more convenient to develop and utilize new methods which will be taking into consideration the heavy duty vehicle excessiveness on our country's highways. For the estimation if intercity traffic, the most important data for the existing traffic is the " origin-destination " traffic values. The existence of the mentioned values in hand, means that from the final points to where the traffic is leading and from where the traffic is arriving. In approximately, all of the developed countries, the traffic estimation methods are based on the " origin-destination " studies conducted. As the mentioned studies are not existing in our country, a research on a method taking as the base of the yearly average of the existing traffic values which are extracted out from the yearly traffic calculation lists has been conducted. The formation conditions of the truck traffic is completely representing the economical and commercial movements. As the method is formed on the movement factor which is related to the traffic capacity, the economical characteristics of the truck traffic which have to be based on the transportation of the production and consumption material, should be represented by the said factor. Therefore, a value covering the total variables which shall be the cause of a traffic in between the cities based on their importance, should be determined. Such determined value shall cause the method to be more practical and shall result in more usage of the existing statistical data. The most identified point of the intercity truck traffic is that it can be identified by an economical index which is able to cover all shorts of economical activities and production of the cities. This can only be achieved by the monetary identification of the produced material and services in that specific year and in that certain city on the basis of " specific city based gross domestic product (GDP). By making calculation of the yearly revenues individually and separately for the above mentioned sectors, it has been foreseen that the determined " specific city based supplementary values " for that individual city, shall be a criteria for that specific city from the point of view of creation and pulling in XII the intercity truck traffic. As a summary, the movement factor elements for the estimation of intercity truck traffic are determined as follows: 1 - The total population of the cities ( P ) 2- City based supplementary values ( K ) 3- The distance between the cities ( d ) The success of the method which is under study, is subject to the determination of the movement factor from the statistical research point of view. In order to have the correlation to be valid, 35 each of (x) values together with 35 each of (y) traffic values which are to be extracted from the traffic enumeration lists covering the seven couples of cities located along with the E-5 corridor and for a five year group should be determined and the point distribution of these values should be determined and the point distribution of these values should be expressing a function. Furthermore, at the said distribution, the relationship, in another words the correlation, of (x) and (y) values should also be good. Therefore, the F movement factor should be formed in such a way that it should be located between the (x) and (y) values or between logarithm of these in order to be able to give the highest correlation. As it is known, the pull in method which is included among the traffic estimation methods; is based on the fundamental principle of the traffic flow between two end points being directly proportional with their importance and indirectly proportional with the distances between them. Importance and size of a region, in our subject, is the population and city based supplementary values of that specific city. Both of the elements should be directly proportional with the statement which will determine the movement factor. As the distance between the cities which takes place as the third element is a element which shows resistance against the transportation, should be placed as indirectly proportional to the statement. In conclusion, the formula is determined as follows: (rag*,) XIII Pi = population of i city Ki = i city supplementary value Pj = population of j city Kj = j city supplementary value d ij = the distance between the i-j cities As a conclusion, at the end 35 movement factors meaning x independent variables and 35 log(x) independent variables have been determined. The aim to locate the straight and logarithmic values of x is to establish linear and exponent function formula. These determined 35 each log(x) and 35 each of log(x) independent variables, and also 35 each of y and 35 each of log(y) dependent variables, which is obtained from y.dat file included in the same program is being critisized in the Storm packet programs data format. At the end, pertaining to their specific year, five files each of which is consisted of x movement factor and seven each of y minimum truck/day values corresponding to x values and also one another set of five files each of which is including the logarithmic values of these values. By means of Storm packet program, on the five files which are consisted of the straight forward x any y values themselves which are obtained from movement factor calculations and also on the other five files which are including the logarithmic values of x any y; regression and correlation analysis have been conducted. As a result, five each of linear and five each of exponent function together with correlation coefficient have been obtained pertaining to the years of 1965-1970-1975-1980-1985. The correlations in each equation, have been quite high. Moreover the general exponantial equation obtained through the evaluation of the data collected in the last 25 years has been agreed with the results of the previous study by Dr. Güçmen. As a conclusion; in case of availability of the estimations covering the city populations and city based supplementary values for the future years, by utilizing the above mentioned formula, it shall be possible to make the estimation of truck traffic flow on the intercity highways.