How does water scarcity affect agricultural productivity and food security? A case study on Morocco

Abstract

This thesis investigates the impacts of water scarcity on agricultural productivity and food security, using Morocco as a case study. Morocco's growing vulnerability to water shortages—caused by irregular rainfall, overexploitation of water resources, and climate change—poses significant threats to its agriculture-based economy. The study adopts quantitative research methodology, relying on statistical data from national institutions, international organizations, and empirical studies. The analysis focuses on key indicators such as rainfall trends, groundwater depletion, irrigation coverage, crop yields, and food import dependency. Temporal comparisons and regional differences are also considered to highlight both the severity and uneven distribution of impacts. Findings reveal a clear correlation between declining water availability and reduced agricultural productivity. Regions like Souss-Massa and Tensift show consistent yield reductions for water-intensive crops such as citrus and vegetables. These reductions not only threaten farmers' incomes but also compromise national food security, increasing reliance on imports and exposing the country to external market shocks. The study also analyses Morocco's policy responses, including the Green Morocco Plan and the Generation Green strategy, as well as investments in desalination and drip irrigation. While progress has been made in modernizing irrigation and improving water efficiency, challenges remain in governance, enforcement, and equitable resource allocation. The thesis concludes that Morocco's path to agricultural and food resilience lies in integrated water resource management, scaling climate-smart agricultural practices, and fostering regional cooperation. Strengthening institutional capacity and data systems will also be key to supporting long-term planning and sustainable development. Furthermore, the thesis highlights the systemic challenges hindering effective adaptation, such as fragmented institutional mandates, insufficient farmer awareness, and limited access to financing for climate-resilient technologies. It argues that transformative change requires not only technical solutions but also inclusive governance that empowers local stakeholders, particularly smallholder farmers, who are disproportionately affected by water insecurity. In this context, the study proposes a multi-stakeholder framework that aligns local knowledge with scientific expertise and fosters participatory planning as a cornerstone of water-smart agricultural policy.