İklim Bilimi ve Meteoroloji Mühendisliği
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Öge11th International Symposium on Atmospheric Sciences : e-proceedings, 23-25 October 2024, Istanbul, Turkey(İTÜ Yayınevi, 2025)This 11th Atmospheric Sciences Symposium; ATMOS2024 built upon the series that began at Istanbul Technical University, Department of Climate Science and Meteorological Engineering in 2024. Subsequent meetings have been held in 1991; 2003; 2008; 2011; 2013; 2015; 2017; 2019 and 2022 in Istanbul, Türkiye. And it is not just enough to produce scientific data for people but it is also necessary to process the data and share the results of those data as a source for students and a starting point for all researchers, users and policy makers, it is a treasure for mankind. We are very greatful and thankful to all the valuable researchers, session chairs and all participants who have contributed to ATMOS2024 from all around the world, whose valuable contributions made this event possible. This e-Proceedings present a collection of 86 papers presented at the Symposium
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ÖgeConvection-permitting climate simulations with COSMO-CLM over northwestern Türkiye under the RCP8.5 scenario(Wiley, 2023)The performance of the climate simulations by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM forced by MPI-ESM-LR, as well as projected future temperature and precipitation conditions over northwestern Türkiye at the convection-permitting resolution, are shown in this study. In terms of mean, maximum and minimum temperatures and daily total precipitation, the model response was examined. Comparisons with observations were made on an annual and seasonal basis. The convection-permitting model (0.0275°) provides a satisfactory representation of annual and seasonal mean temperatures according to bias, MAE and RMSE. Better results were found for precipitation with respect to RE, MAE and RMSE. Finally, we used the RCP8.5 emission scenario to investigate future climate changes in terms of average temperature and precipitation variations for northwestern Türkiye, including Istanbul, over two projection periods (2041–2060 and 2071–2090) compared to the reference period (1991–2005). The model predicts significant warming in northwestern Türkiye, particularly in Istanbul and its environs, by the end of the century, as well as a general decrease in precipitation, especially evident in the spring and summer. The findings of this study can be used to develop climate adaptation policies based on temperature and precipitation variables in and around the study area.
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ÖgeFuture change of humid heat extremes and population exposure in Turkey(Wiley, 2024)Global climate projections show that humid heat extremes will expand toward the higher latitudes, making the midlatitudes hotspots for these extremes. Therefore, a thorough explanation of their regional characteristics becomes crucial, given that the changes in these extremes can potentially render a large proportion of the global population at risk. Here, we perform the first analysis of historical and projected changes in the intensity and frequency of humid heat extremes and quantify the population exposure to these extremes in Turkey, using long-term simulations from the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model of Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO-CLM) under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. We portray not only the nationwide changes in the humid heat extremes and population exposure but also their regional aspects by exploiting the K-means clustering algorithm. Our results suggest significant future increases in the intensity and frequency of these extremes over a wide geographical area, which includes the surroundings of Adana, Antalya, Izmir, Sakarya, Ordu and Diyarbakir, most of which are coastal locations. Over most of these regions, severe humid heat stress is expected to last nearly a month every year, with almost 56% of the land area is projected to experience local historical upper tail heat stress conditions for at least an additional 10 consecutive hours. Further, we explicate a significant rise in the number of people exposed to severe humid heat stress, concentrated along most coastal regions, by as much as 1.6 million person-days. More than 20% of Turkey's population may confront severe humid heat stress for at least 1 h, with that percentage falling to 4.15% for at least five consecutive hours, which indicates that people will not only endure more intense humid heat stress but also be exposed to these conditions consecutively over a period of many hours.
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ÖgeEarth, air quality and climate(İTÜ Yayınevi, 2024)Istanbul Technical University - Department of Meteorological Engineering has been organizing the International Symposium on Atmospheric Sciences - ATMOS every two years, since 2000. This book consists of scientic papers that were presented at the 10th ATMOS event in 2022 and were selected by the scientic committee after being refereed again. This book, which consists of papers under the theme of EARTH, AIR QUALITY and CLIMATE, will provide valuable contributions to related research and researchers.
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ÖgeVariables controlling growing season carbon dynamics in desert shrub ecosystem(Springer, 2024)Arid and semi-arid lands (drylands) are under the influence of extreme environmental conditions and cover large areas on Earth’s land surface. Determining temporal and spatial variations of the greenhouse gas and energy exchange in these ecosystems will provide a better understanding of both, the dynamics between the drylands’s surface and the atmosphere and the importance in climate change. In this study, CO2 exchanges over a shrub steppe ecosystem were determined using the Eddy Covariance method during both dry and wet growing seasons in the Gobi Desert, Mongolia. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was modeled using the extreme gradient boosting method (XGBOOST). Variables influencing NEE were estimated employing the SHapley Additive exPlanations algorithm (SHAP). The XGBOOST predictions demonstrated impressive results across all growing seasons, with high performance metrics (R2 = 0.821; NSE = 0.817), particularly notable during the wet season (R2 = 0.932; NSE = 0.929). The total NEE changed between 79.7 and -110.4 gC m−2 throughout the growing seasons. Especially the precipitation before the growing period has a positive impact on carbon sequestration in the shrub ecosystem in the following dry season. A high similarity was found in the patterns of daily NEE of all growing seasons and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), albedo, soil water content, temperature, sensible heat flux, the difference between air and soil temperature in desert shrub ecosystem. Although NDVI was the dominant factor during the wet season, there was a weaker relationship between these factors and NEE in the dry season than in the wet season.