LEE- Şehir ve Bölge Planlama-Doktora
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ÖgeSimulation of residential mobility by agent-based modeling integrated with uncertainty in planning approach(Graduate School, 2021-02-24) Nasrollahzadeh, Somaiyeh ; Koramaz, Turgay Kerem ; 502132807 ; Urban and Regional Planning ; Şehir ve Bölge PlanlamaUrban planners often face challenges related to their implementation, modification, and extensive plan alterations, that the results of which may lead to their approval, delay, or even cancellation. As well as plan approval and implementation processes, urban development may be influenced by national or local investments, accomplishing infrastructural improvement and increases in land values (Kuyucu, 2017). The concept of resilience, which is extensively discussed in urban planning, reflects the idea of the city as a complex system that is exposed to the unforeseen effects of either planned or uncontrolled development. The current research attempted to find conceivable solutions to the problem of uncertainty in the implementation of approved urban plans. In this regard, the focus of the research is on identifying and reducing the unforeseen negative effects of large-scale urban projects on vulnerable households that are on the path of radical development plans. As a result, there is a need for a supportive theory that can be used to define the affected urban system within its framework. Among the theories related to urban issues in terms of providing an appropriate definition of such a system, probable shocks to the system, and system evaluation phases, the resilient city theory has been deemed appropriate to this discussion. It is important to note that resilient city theory often focuses on shocks created by natural disasters (floods, earthquakes, etc.) that impact on the overall urban system. However, the unforeseen effects of local urban development plans that attack the social and physical structure of the host urban subsystem have not been properly discussed and exploited in a resilient city framework. In this study, the type of shock to the urban subsystem (the residential neighbourhood) has been identified, and the neighbourhood has been divided into adaptable and transformable zones. The method used in this research has been selected according to the emphasis on the definition of system used for cities. Agent based modeling, as a quantitative method that simulates dynamic systems, is used to depict and monitor residential neighbourhood developments due to the uncertain impacts, as well as to present different scenarios based on defined criteria. According to the research subject, residential mobility, the two main variables, land value and residential subareas of neighbourhood have been used as assessment framework. Since land values are directly related to the socio-economic circumstances of households, and also residential subareas are strongly influenced by the physical-spatial development of the environment surrounding the residential neighbourhood, they have been selected as the main criteria. Given the approach of the present study, residential mobility which is based on dual status (move or stay), Binary Logit Regression has been used for analysis. Furthermore, the dependent variable is defined due to the vulnerability degree of location derived from fluctuations in land values and features of residential subareas. In the discussion of the designed scenarios, the destination of the households that may be exposed to displacement is determined in the form of three scenarios. In the first scenario, movement takes place within the neighbourhood regarding predicted land value over the next 18 years (2019-2036). In the second scenario, without taking into account the predicted land values, the approved areas for residential development are considered as the destination of vulnerable households that may be forced to relocate. In the third scenario, the probable options for housing of the exposed households are chosen from within the Gokturk neighbourhood. Regarding how to collect the test data, it should be noted that two sets of data were used as analyzing materials. Secondary data taken from the official government website of the Republic of Turkey was used to examine land value fluctuations. The achieved values are related to the years 2004 to 2018. The data used in the BLR and the level of satisfaction with households' residential environment were extracted from the questionnaires collected in August 2019. The examined number of households in the questionnaire is 210, which are selected based on the grading of the neighbourhood sub-areas where they are located. Finally, the findings of this study determine the degree of vulnerability of neighbourhood subareas, determining potential eviction lines, and areas where land values are rising steeply.By recognizing these areas, policies have been proposed to diminish the consequences of large-scale development near the study area, including the eviction of vulnerable households and potential land speculation. Thus, with a suitable location for housing these families, not only their eviction will be prevented, but also become an obstacle to controlling the horizontal development into the forest. Modifying informal urbanization processed during the 1980s to affordable housing spare resources instead of luxury residential or other types of development can be one of the effective policies. In the context of future research, it is possible to engage in further criteria and assess the legislative environment of the region to be changed to adopt implementing policies for a resilient residential neighbourhood within the comprehensive framework of resilience index. Referring to what was discussed in the current study, a resilient system has a systematic learning mechanism, providing opportunities to learn from the past, in order to make decisions for future. Another feature of such a system is, providing multiple strategies and structures in order to achieve a demand or fulfil a function facing unintended effects. Therefore, the diversity of resource reserves and prioritization of supply networks are designed. Broad consultation and engagement of communities contribute to especially vulnerable groups such as sector, location, or community, which address shocks and stress, not in isolation. Such a feature is one of the most important aspects of a resilient system and also an integrated urban planning. Another conjunction between resilient systems and integrated planning is working across different scales, levels of government and types of risks, and bringing perspectives together to reach a common outcome. By considering a residential neighbourhood in the form of a resilient system exposed to large scale investments not corresponding planning, the following reactions can be achieved. Projects outside the approved plans are considered as disturbances in residential development because they are designed in accordance with the requirements of time and space and are also in contrary to the approved plans. These projects, in terms of impact on the target neighbourhood, can be categorized into two categories; threats and new development opportunities. Sometimes these changes may not be able to alter major socio-spatial structure of a neighbourhood dramatically, as expected as the area absorbs the disturbances and were adopted. The next reaction of the system is preparing the prerequisites for major changes or violation of approved plans, and implementation would be in the further steps. By enacting new laws, the system would be subjected to transformation. Whether such transformation provides a positive manner for the target area or puts it in a negative situation, the necessary investigation of transformed or adapted layers must be carried out. On the other hand, the unintended impacts of new development projects can reveal the hidden or newly discovered potentials of an area to develop or improve the spatial and structural circumstances of the target area.