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ÖgeAnalysing the factors affecting free zones performance: The case of Turkey(Graduate School, 2022) Üstün, Çiğdem ; Arslanlı, Kerem Yavuz ; 502191814 ; Regional Planning ProgrammeForeign trade, defined as all imports and exports of countries with each other, has significant benefits such as foreign exchange earnings and technology/knowledge transfer to countries. With globalisation, the factors preventing foreign trade between countries have decreased and country borders have blurred. Accordingly, foreign trade has progressed with the effects of globalisation. Considering foreign trade as a crucial part of increasing economic welfare, countries have developed export-oriented policies to increase their market shares in global trade. Free zones have been seen as an essential tool that can contribute to the realisation of this aim. Free zones can be defined as special economic zones located within the country's political borders but outside of various foreign trade restrictions. Certain incentives, advantages and exemptions are provided to investors in these zones, which are considered outside the customs zone. Although free zone practices date back to the free cities in the early ages, it is stated that the structure of free zones today dates back to the 18th century. Free zones, which have existed under different names since the early ages, have continued to exist until today for various reasons such as globalisation and liberalisation of trade. According to the 2019 World Investment Report published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the number of special economic zones is approximately 5,400 as of 2018, with more than 1.000 established in the last five years. In addition, nearly 500 special economic zones are in the pipeline. Free zones may differ according to the countries' economic, political and social conditions. Therefore, there are various types of free zones based on their application and activity. Different names in different countries call these types of free zones. Some of the names used for free zones in different countries are as follows: free port, free trade zone, special economic zone, free production zones, etc. Although the concept of a free zone varies from country to country, they are established in different countries with different policies to achieve specific purposes. In general, they have primary establishment purposes such as increasing employment, providing foreign currency inflow to the country, transferring knowledge and technology and increasing exports. The history of free zones dates back to the early ages. However, it started to become widespread especially in the 18th century. Countries have preferred free zones to reduce the impact of the 1929 Economic Crisis. In addition, free zones have both positive and adverse effects on the economy of the region/country where they are established. They have positive effects such as reducing unemployment, providing technology transfer, and increasing foreign exchange earnings and foreign direct investments. On the other hand, they also have adverse effects such as creating import pressure, competing with local firms in the country, increasing wage inequality, increasing the risk of illegal activities, damaging the environment and wasting resources. The history of attempts to establish free zones in Turkey dates back to the 1920s, yet the efforts to establish free zones accelerated in the 1980s with the adoption of export-oriented policies. In 1985, Mersin and Antalya Free Zones, the first free zones in Turkey, were established with the enactment of the Free Zones Law numbered 3218. As of 2022, there are eighteen free zones in fourteen provinces in Turkey. According to the Official Gazette dated 8 September 2021, the 19th free zone will be established in Izmir. The total trade volumes of the free zones in Turkey between 2008 and 2021 show a fluctuating trend over the years. Nevertheless, the number of free-zone employees has been increasing continuously between 2010 and 2021. As a result, the share of trade volume of free zones in Turkey's trade volume has been decreasing over the years. While this ratio was 13% in 2000, it is recorded that it decreased to 5% in 2021. The literature contains both qualitative and quantitative studies on free zones. Qualitative research generally included comparison and evaluation studies and discussions of free zones' benefits and effects on the economy. On the other hand, quantitative studies usually concentrate on analysing the economic impact of free zones and measuring their efficiency. Data Envelopment Analysis and Panel Data Analysis are the two most commonly used methods. The aim of the study is to determine the factors affecting the economic performance of free zones. These variables, which are selected based on the literature, are chosen according to the primary establishment purposes of free zones. Therefore, the research topic of the study can be summarised as investigating which criteria are essential for the free zone to achieve its goals. The data were analysed between 2008 and 2019. Although there are eighteen free zones in Turkey, the sample size of the study conducted within the scope of free zones in Turkey is fourteen. This is because the data in the study are organised according to the provinces where free zones are located and some provinces have more than one free zone. In the study, the questions "What are the success criteria for the free zones in Turkey to achieve their targets and which criteria affect the performance of the free zones to achieve their targets positively and/or negatively?" were sought to be answered. The panel data analysis method has been used in this study. This method allowed to evaluate the provinces' data where free zones are located according to the chosen year period. A continuous data set was created for each independent variable between 2008 – 2019, and this data set was used to create a balanced panel. The analysis was conducted using the R Studio program. Annual trade volume data from free zones are used as the dependent variable to assess the economic performance of free zones. The sum of the trade volumes of the free zones located in the same province was used. Eleven independent variables were selected to explain the annual trade volume, which is the study's dependent variable. Three categories –population, human capital, and technological innovation – are used to group these variables. The population category consists of population density, migration rate, young population and the total number of insured employees in the province where the free zone is located. The human capital category consists of the share of the number of high schools and vocational high schools graduates, university and other higher educational institutions graduates, master's degree graduates (including 5 or 6-year faculties) and doctorate graduates in the working-age population (15-64 years old) in the province where the free zone is located. The technological innovation category consists of the number of research and development (R&D) centers, the number of patent applications and the number of universities in the province where the free zone is located. The panel data analysis has three assumptions and the panel data set should be tested according to these assumptions. The necessary tests were applied to verify these assumptions before proceeding to the analysis. First, unit root tests were used to determine whether each independent variable had unit roots. The results showed that each independent variable did not have unit roots, indicating that the independent variables were stationary. Other tests revealed that the model had issues with heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. The panel data analysis contains three types of models: the pooled (classical) model, the fixed effects model and the random effects model. These three models were calculated within the scope of the study. However, the F test and Hausman test were applied to determine which model was the most appropriate for the study. Both tests produced findings that supported the hypothesis of the fixed effect as being suitable. The heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation problems were corrected by using the Driscoll & Kraay estimator. The independent variables forming the model explain 69.458% of the free zone trade volume according to the corrected model results. Seven of the eleven independent variables were found to have an effect on the trade volume at various levels of significance. While there is a significant and positive relationship between the trade volume of free zones and the young population, the share of high school and vocational high school graduates, the share of doctorate graduates in the working-age population and the number of universities; there is a significant and negative relationship between population density, the share of master's degree graduates in the working age population and the number of patent applications. There is no significant relationship between migration rate, the total number of insured employees, the share of university and other higher education graduates in the working age population, number of research and development (R&D) and trade volume. The factors affecting the trade volumes of free zones, which are seen as a tool for economic development, have been revealed. Benefiting from free zones, using their existing capacities in the most efficient way and evaluating their performances are of great importance to the national economy. Therefore, it will be crucial to analyse the statistically significant variables in the provinces where free zones are planned to be established and in free zones that do not perform effectively. The analysis findings will guide the relevant authorities in terms of the indicators to be considered during the establishment phase and will be a source for future studies for researchers interested in related fields.