AYBE- İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Lisansüstü Programı - Yüksek Lisans
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Konu "Bilgisayar modellemesi" ile AYBE- İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Lisansüstü Programı - Yüksek Lisans'a göz atma
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ÖgeDoğu Kayını (fagus Orientalis) Ağacının Alansal Dağılım Modellemesi: Geçmiş, Günümüz Ve Gelecek(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2018-06-08) Dağtekin, Ayşegül Dilşad ; Dalfes, Hasan Nüzhet ; 601161010 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıClimate change affects forest biomes more severely than ever, even with the ~1°C temperature warming so far. Geographical distributions of these biomes are linked to warming temperatures and decreasing precipitation. Species try to adapt to this change by changing these geographical barriers. Recent warming not only impacted the survival rates of most tree species, also increased risks in handling extreme events. Fagus orientalis is a temperate, deciduous, broad-leaved species, which covers a wide area from the eastern Balkans through Turkey, Caucasia, Crimea and northern Iran, including the Amanos Mountains in the south, with a large elevational distribution from sea level to 2100 m. Beech has an important role in terms of dominating forests and creating new ecosystems, also it is used by many industries. Several research indicate that these species are disturbed by changing the climate in terms of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. Because of its importance in forestry, industry and ecosystem Fagus sp. were the focus of interest in this study. We conducted species distribution model simulations with five different algorithms embedded in biomod2 R package – BIOCLIM, GAM, GLM, RF, MaxEnt – and with environmental data from the climate of the present, past, and future from Wordclim version 1.4, as well as digital elevation model for altitude from NASA. Our simulations covered an area in Eurasia where Fagus sp. is seen, exact coordinates of 18 – 62 East and 33 – 51 North. We verified our model with present-day classifications, which fitted well the distributional data obtained from General Directorate of Forestry and EUFORGEN project. These models were used to 'predict' distributions through climate changes spanning Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 bp), Mid-Holocene (6,000 bp), 2050 and 2070 obtained from two global climate models, MIROC-ESM and CCSM4. We observed that F. orientalis distribution is toward the northeast from its present distribution, where mountainous regions are intense, colder and wetter climates are available according to future conditions. These results led us to verify that drier climate and higher temperatures are considered as limitations to these species. Additionally, we could identify refugia areas for this particular species in the past which might lead to new studies. We believe that the outcomes of this study would help improving management and conservation plans for Fagus orientalis in order to protect it from severe effects of climate change.
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ÖgeBir Zebra Midyesi (dreissena Polymorpha) İstilasının Mekansal Ve Zamansal Örüntüleri(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2015-01-19) Kanmaz, Oğuzhan ; Dalfes, Hasan Nüzhet ; 601111005 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıBiological invasions are an important dimension of global change and is an environmental problem which has a serious consequences. Awareness about this issue has increased, especially after the invasion of zebra mussels in Great Lakes of North America and environmental and economic results of this invasion. In this study, spatial and temporal patterns of the zebra mussel invasion in Great Lakes was studied, for a 20-year period by using individual based modelling method. The model was developed in NetLogo environment. Numerical experiments were also conducted in this environment. First of six experiment sets is reference case experiment. Effects of phytoplankton density on zebra mussel populations were investigated in P75 and P125 experiment sets. In T0.1 and T10 experiment sets, effects of transportation probability on zebra mussels were investigated. Last experiment set, SupD, was conducted to observe how environmental changes would affect a biological invasion, by applying Lake Huron conditions to Lake Superior. According to results, there is no linear relation between the change of phytoplankton amount and the increase of zebra mussel population and slight changes of phytoplankton amount cause significant increases in invasion strenght. Changes in transportation probability, affect invasion stages temporally and also have impact on population size. SupD experiment results show that probable climate changes have a strengthening effect on biological invasions. Results also show that, lake location in the waterbody network is also important beside the individual conditions of each lake and mussel populations constitute characteristic patterns depending on invasion strenght.