AYBE- İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Lisansüstü Programı - Yüksek Lisans
Bu koleksiyon için kalıcı URI
Gözat
Çıkarma tarihi ile AYBE- İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Lisansüstü Programı - Yüksek Lisans'a göz atma
Sayfa başına sonuç
Sıralama Seçenekleri
-
ÖgeÜniversite Öğrencilerinin Biyoçeşitlilik Algısı Ve Biyoçeşitlilikle İlgili Tutumlarının Analizi(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2015-01-19) Şenel, Tuğçe ; Dalfes, Hasan Nüzhet ; 601111006 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıTurkey has a very rich biodiversity yet this enourmous richness is seriously under threat. Lack of nature education leads conservation acts and campaigns to be under supported and even rejected by people. To have a sufficient nature education is very important for young population, who are scientists, engineers, decision makers, law makers...etc. of the future. In Turkey, nature education basically consists of biology courses. In this study, two hundred higher education students were asked to participate in a twelve item questionnaire about biodiversity. Their perception and attitudes towards biodiversity were investigated. Results show that although the students know what biodiversity is and they are sensitive about environmental issues they have many confusions, misconceptions and lack of knowledge. Results also underline that, a well planned, early starting nature education which families also will be a part of it is required and this education should be seperated from biology courses and be a life long learning process.
-
ÖgeBir Zebra Midyesi (dreissena Polymorpha) İstilasının Mekansal Ve Zamansal Örüntüleri(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2015-01-19) Kanmaz, Oğuzhan ; Dalfes, Hasan Nüzhet ; 601111005 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıBiological invasions are an important dimension of global change and is an environmental problem which has a serious consequences. Awareness about this issue has increased, especially after the invasion of zebra mussels in Great Lakes of North America and environmental and economic results of this invasion. In this study, spatial and temporal patterns of the zebra mussel invasion in Great Lakes was studied, for a 20-year period by using individual based modelling method. The model was developed in NetLogo environment. Numerical experiments were also conducted in this environment. First of six experiment sets is reference case experiment. Effects of phytoplankton density on zebra mussel populations were investigated in P75 and P125 experiment sets. In T0.1 and T10 experiment sets, effects of transportation probability on zebra mussels were investigated. Last experiment set, SupD, was conducted to observe how environmental changes would affect a biological invasion, by applying Lake Huron conditions to Lake Superior. According to results, there is no linear relation between the change of phytoplankton amount and the increase of zebra mussel population and slight changes of phytoplankton amount cause significant increases in invasion strenght. Changes in transportation probability, affect invasion stages temporally and also have impact on population size. SupD experiment results show that probable climate changes have a strengthening effect on biological invasions. Results also show that, lake location in the waterbody network is also important beside the individual conditions of each lake and mussel populations constitute characteristic patterns depending on invasion strenght.
-
ÖgeTürkiye'de İklim Uç Olayları İndislerinin Tarihsel Değişimi(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2015-01-20) Dündar, Berna ; Şen, Ömer Lütfi ; 601111003 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıThe climate system has a profound effect on life on the Earth. People's daily life mainly depends on weather that surrounds them. Besides, wheather and climate extremes have significant influence on society, environment and the economy. Hence, it is very important to study them. ETCCDI defined 27 core indices for investigating extreme events. In this study 14 indices from them has been analysed. Daily temperature and precipitation data for 452 stations, obtained from Turkish State Metereological Service. In order to eliminate stations with missing values, data visualization method used and 134 stations selected from 452 stations. These data were used for trend analysis of these indices between the periods 1965 – 2006. The Sequentiall Mann Kendall non-parametric test applied for trend analysis of the indices. This version of the Mann Kendall test used to determine the beginning of a trend within a sample. Firstly, in this study annual maximum and minimum temperature trends examined for four months that were October, May, January and July. In addition, their annual precipitation investigation have been done. According to this examination, annual maximum temperatures of July', October and May showed increasing trends whereas there was not any spatially coherent trend observed for January. Annual minimum temperature investigation revealed that for July' there was spatially coherent increasing trend throughout the country. In contrast, just one station indicated decreasing trend that was Erzurum. Moreover, the same behavior observed for October' annual minimum temperatures also. Annual minimum temperatures for May' indicate both increasing and decreasing trends for some stations. There was not any annual precipitation pattern found for these months. Secondly, trend analysis of 14 indices studied. According to this analysis, there was no spatially coherent increasing or decreasing trend for "number of frost days", though the few stations that indicate increasing behaviour were mainly in the northern half of the country. On the other hand, "numbers of summer days" have been increasing in Turkey; and the significant increases distributed throughout the country with the exception of Southeastern Anatolia region. For "tropical nights", stations located around the Marmara Sea, Mediterranean coastal areas and northeast of the country showed increasing trends. There weren't any trends observed for "growing season length" and "icing days". Trend analysis of monthly maximum temperatures of daily maximum and minimum, monthly minimum temperatures of daily maximum and minimum have been done for January and July. No trends observed for January. However, there was an increasing trend for monthly maximum value of daily minimum temperatures of July. This trend observed along coastal areas, especially Aegean and Mediterranean regions and some stations around Marmara Sea. Furthermore, a few stations on the Black Sea coastline and some inland stations showed this behavior also. Trend analysis of monthly minimum value of daily maximum temperature of July indicated an increasing trend along the Mediterranean and Aegean coastlines. Besides, the same behavior observed at some stations located in the Southeast, Central Anatolia and northeast of the Black Sea Region. Trend analysis of monthly minimum value of daily minimum temperature of July showed an increasing trend along the Mediterranean, Aegean coastlines and some stations around Marmara Sea. Moreover, some stations in the west, central and northern part of the country. Trend analyses of daily temperature range done for January and July. For January, there wasn't any spatially coherent trends observed; some stations showed decreasing; some Aegean coastline and inland stations indicated increasing trend. Trend analyses of July showed that stations mainly in the northern part of the country indicated increasing trend wheras some stations located in the Mediterraean coastal areas and southeast and east part of the country showed decreasing behavior. Trend analyses of precipitation indices were done as well. However, there wasn't any trend observed for monthly maximum 1-day precipitation, also monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation. Moreover, no trend observed for R10mm (annual count of days when precipitation ≥ 10 mm) and R20mm. In this study, 134 stations annual maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation data have been analysed for the period 1965-2006. In addition, 14 climate extreme indices trends have been investigated for the same period. Consequences from this research revealed that; annual maximum temperature of July, October and May indicated increasing trends. Besides, annual minimum temperature of July and October showed increasing tendency throughout the country. However, there wasn't any precipitation pattern found for Turkey. In addition, increasing trend observed for number of summer days and tropical nights whereas there weren't any spatially coherent trends observed for growing season length and icing days. Monthly maximum and minimum temperatures displayed increasing trend for July. However, no trends observed for January. Hence, it may infer that the effect of climate change on Turkey is more obvious in the warmer part of the year.
-
ÖgeHersiniyen Orojenik Sisteminin Doğu Avrupadaki Kısmının Geometrisi, Evrimi Ve İskititlere Geçişi(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2015-07-12) Sağdıç, Nurbike Göksu ; Şengör, Ali Mehmet Celal ; 601121004 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıThe Hercynian Orogen, one of the best-known orogenic belts in the world, still hides many secrets concerning its evolution. This orogen formed through the collision between Laurussia and Gondwana-Land, which resulted in the supercontinent of Pangaea. Pangaea's formation began in the late Devonian with the onset of subduction and continued from the early-medial Carboniferous to the Permo-Triassic by means of collision. However, at the eastern part of this supercontinent, collision never happened and subduction continued in the Permo-Triassic. The coast of the Palaeo-Tethys known as Alpine-type Triassic succession was the scene of high mobility events in the core of the Pangaea in terms of Hercynian and Post-Hercynian stages. It is a fact that when the subduction process was still continuing, a rifting event began in the Permo Triassic at the eastern part of Pangaea by disrupting a magmatic arc. The results show a continuous arc goes from the Rhodope-Pontide Fragment in the north, through the Eastern Carpathians, Tisza Block, Western Carpathians, and Pelagonian Zone, to the Eastern Pontides in the south. Additionally, the lithostratigraphic charts of all the tectonic zones indicate the volcano sedimentary complexes, which show a rifting event as their most likely interpretation. As a consequence of this rifting, a marginal basin started to form beginning from the eastern part and tore westward by tracing the weak zones of the former arc. It began to take shape from the Karakaya Complex, goes through the Pelagonian zone and the Inner Western Carpathians namely Meliaticum into the Tisza Block in the Late Permian-Early Triassic. From the medial to the end of the late Triassic, the entire Hellenic-Dinaric System and Italy began to disintegrate, which started from the Pindos Zone in Hellenides and Sicily in Italy, and joined together into the Southern Alps by passing through all along the coast of the present Adriatic Sea. This presentation shows a reconstruction of the Mediterranean Tethysides at the time of the early Triassic. It was done by palinspastically restoring all the orogenic deformation for which data were to be had painstakingly and not just schematically. It is still incomplete, because it does not show the rift areas of the Sclafani-Imerese, Lagonegro and Pindos-Budva, except to show where they were. It also delineates the lie of the Karakaya and the Meliata rifts and shows that they were one and the same rift. Karakaya was later partly incorporated into the Vardar Ocean. Most of it closed during the earliest Jurassic, whereas the Meliata part was delayed until the late Jurassic. These closures are responses to two events: 1) Palaeo-Tethyan closure in case of Karakaya and 2) the opening of the South Atlantic in case of the Meliata. This paper addresses itself mainly to the solution of the Karakaya-Meliata problem.
-
ÖgeCopert4 Modeliyle Hesaplanan Karayolları Emisyonlarının Duyarlılığının İstanbul Hava Kalitesine Etkisinin Wrf/cmaq Model Sistemiyle Belirlenmesi(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2015-11-25) Kafadar, Müge ; Ünal, Alper ; 601121009 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıIstanbul, the study area and the economic capital of Turkey, is the most populated city all around Europe with a population well over 14 million. The city has faced with environmental problems due to rapid urbanization and industrialization for a couple of decades. Air pollution is one of the most challenging problems for Istanbul where studies publicized that air pollution, particulate matter pollution in specific, has various serious effects on public health. Although air pollution is caused by numerous sources ranging from industrial to biogenic activities, emissions from motor vehicles have the most adverse effects on public health as they are released at the locations with certain levels where human activity is the highest. Traffic related emissions were calculated by using COPERT 4 (COmputer Programme to calculate Emissions from Road Transport) which is vehicle emission computation software and supported by European Environment Agency (EEA). Model input data were obtained from Turkish Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, and TUVTURK, then the data were processed by R that is a software environment for statistical computing and graphics. Besides fleet distribution process based on EURO levels, engine volumes, and fuel type was done first time for Istanbul, COPERT 4 was also run with this high resolution data. High-resolution emission inventory for other sectors, which is prepared by Dr. Ulaş Im, were employed. It can be summarized from the results of this analysis that road transport itself is solely responsible for 32 percent of CO emissions, as well as playing a main role in NMVOC emissions with the contribution of 43 percent to the total NMVOC emissions inventory, and NOx emissions with the contribution of 40 percent to total NOx emissions inventory. Furthermore, overall CO, NOx and PM2.5 contributions by road transport are found as 51%, 42%, and 11%, respectively. It is also realized that impact of road transport on inventory is higher than other sources. Vehicle emissions in inventory with this vitality increase the importance of determining the sensitivity and the uncertainty of calculations. To investigate the sensitivity of COPERT 4, three scenarios are determined based on temperature and speed parameters with numerous values that are strongly affecting the calculations. Then, base case emission values were compared with obtained emission values of these three scenarios. For the each scenario COPERT model was run and emissions of road transport was obtained. Then, calculated vehicle emissions used as input for air quality model. As a result of emissions for each scenario, a conclusion can be drawn that the major pollutant is NOx and minor pollutant is PM2.5 in general, where the emissions are higher in rural areas than urban areas and than the highways When a general analysis is done on scenarios regarding to pollutants, it can be realized that there is a decrease in emissions of all kinds of pollutants except CO as speed increases, and increase in emissions of all kinds of pollutants except CO as speed decreases. On the other hand, an obvious decrease in emissions of pollutants except NMVOC is realized in the case of temperature decrease. After evaluating the effect of change in model parameters on emission rates, air quality model was run to determine how would the effect of variation on emission rates embody in air quality. Model was first run for base case, then it is tried to determine the impact on air quality by running the model for each case separately. PM2.5 is analyzed since it has a significant effect on public health although it is not one of the pollutants that are caused by vehicle emissions. The day and time was examined when the gap is at maximum between the concentrations that are calculated for fundamental cases and the concentrations that are calculated within each model cell for all scenarios. It has been realized that there is 1.5 μg/m3 (~5%) decrease in PM2.5 concentration Istanbul-wide when results from CMAQ is analyzed within Scenario-I where the speed increased by 20%. 1.5 μg/m3 rate might be considered insignificant when it is compared with other average concentrations; however, it plays a key role on public health. In Scenario-II, it was realized that there is an average 2μg/m3 decrease in PM2.5 concentration depending on decrease in speed. This study can be advanced by obtaining higher resolution data that are employed for emission calculations of vehicles such as truck, bus, etc., by preparing more detailed emission inventory, and by employing the data suiting more accurate boundary conditions for air quality model.
-
ÖgeKnidos Fay Zonu'nun Deprem Geçmişini Klor-36 Yüzey Yaş Tayini Yöntemiyle Modelleme(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2015-11-26) Şahin, Sefa ; Yıldırım, Cengiz ; 6011212010 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıKnidos is an ancient city, which is located in the south of Gulf of Gökova in Western Anatolia. The Knidos Fault Zone is situated in ancient settlement ruins on the Datça Peninsula. The recent geological and archaeological evidences point out that this ancient site has been affected by at least two crucial momentous seismic events. In the light of this information, we have carried out cosmogenic 36Cl dating in order to obtain information about the seismic history of the Knidos Fault Zone. Using cosmic-ray surface exposure dating of a well-preserved limestone fault scarp facilitates us to attain information, which reveals a seismic history of faulting events and identifies timing and recurrence interval of past major earthquakes, and slip rates of the Knidos Fault Zone. There are two distinct faults located in the study area; those are the Demeter Fault and the Mezarlık Fault. I have chosen to aim at the Mezarlık Fault on account of that it has well-preserved fault scarp. The concentration of cosmogenic 36Cl isotopes measured in 128 limestone samples from a ~15m high bedrock fault scarp helps us to reveal the fault displacement history of the Knidos fault, in the Western Turkey. Although this method can cause breakthrough to the recent studies in earth science, there are plenty of limitations and uncertainties to deal with. The important factors are latitude and air pressure (elevation) scaling factors for a constant geomagnetic field, shielding resulting from the specific geometry of active normal faults, effects of the chemical composition of the colluvial wedge, effects of denudation of the scarp surface and snow cover effects on scarp shielding. Through the modelling of the cosmogenic 36Cl nuclides, it can be understood that Mezarlık Fault might be post-glacial as a result of previous studies implied in the similar fault scarps in the Mediterranean. As oppose to all of these limitations, it has been tried to understand impacts of these factors on the target fault by using recent numerical models. I have set out to obtain accurate conclusion through correlate and compare the result with synthetic profiles and previous studies as much as possible. The slip histories modelled via concentrations of 36Cl indicate that at least three or more events occurred on the Mezarlık fault within the past 20 kyr; over 10 meters of displacement took place between early Holocene and late Pleistocene. This study was conducted with the Decision of the Council of Ministers with No. 2013/5387 on the date 30.09.2013 and was done with the permission of Knidos Presidency of excavation in accordance with the scope of Knidos Excavation and Research carried out on behalf of Selçuk University and Ministry of Culture and Tourism.
-
Ögeİstanbul'da Models-3/cmaq Model Sistemi Kullanarak Düşük Emisyon Bölgesi Çalışması(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2015-12-25) Ergül, Merve Gökgöz ; Ünal, Alper ; 601121003 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıIstanbul is the most populated city of Turkey as well as one of the mega cities of the world. Due to growing population and economy, city has been experiencing the problems of air pollution. There are many studies about air pollution effects on human health in the literature. Road transport emissions are released in areas where people live intensively, therefore these emissions are important for public health. This thesis aims to identify and quantify the measures to be taken to prevent traffic-related air pollution by using WRF meteorology model and CMAQ chemistry and transport model. This study presents the first Low Emission Zone study in Istanbul by using modeling and highlights the requirements of Low Emission Zone establishment. Istanbul-specific inventory includes main anthropogenic sources on 2 km horizontal and hourly temporal resolution. Road transport emissions were obtained from COPERT emission model. Emission model results reveal that on-road traffic emissions are the main source for most of the pollutants such as CO, NMVOC and NOx, industrial combustion is responsible for high amount of SO2 emissions and solvent use and traffic are the main participants for NMVOC emissions. The spatial distribution of air pollutants has proved that the highest concentrations occur at the places where emission sources are located. But uncertainties may be occur due to the activity data, emission factors and temporal profiles used in this thesis. WRF model was run for a 11-day period, includes PM concentrations are mostly higher than EU limit value (50μg/m3), from November 2 to November 12, 2010. Model run results from the WRF simulation were compared with observations from Ataturk Airport and Goztepe air quality stations. According to statistical and time plot results WRF has captured surface temperature successfully. But this performance can be further improved by changing physical parameters of WRF. The results from the CMAQ model were compared with Aksaray air quality station based on PM10 concentrations. The statistical performance of model shows low correlation with the observations. Differences between model with measurement results can arise from many causes such as; uncertainty in the meteorological model and COPERT model, improper boundary conditions and temporal profiles and measurement errors. In order to limit traffic related air pollutants, methods and regions which have high density of population and work places were determined. Based on these criteria Historical Peninsula, Kadikoy and Maslak were selected as candidates. When transport sector emissions were reduced by 30% and given to DUMAN model, Historical Peninsula has demonstrated most significant response which is 10μg/m3 reduction in PM10 hourly concentration. Then, effect of each method on PM levels was examined by using literature studies and COPERT model. The most effective method was found as EURO 3 standard causes 85% reduction in PM10 emissions. In the case of only EURO 3, EURO 4, EUR0 5 and EURO 6 vehicles can enter the zone, hourly PM concentration differences between base situation and low emission case has reached up 35μg/m3. Overall, a low emission zone will be announced on the Historical Peninsula, will provide a significant improvement in regional air quality.
-
ÖgeWrf/cmaq Modelleme Sistemi İle Hava Kirliliğinden Kaynaklanan Avrupa'daki Tarımsal Zararın İncelenmesi(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2016-05-02) Öztaner, Yaşar Burak ; Ünal, Alper ; 601131005 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıThe population of Europe, including non-EU countries located in continental Europe, is estimated to be around 740 million, which corresponds to 10% of the world's population (United Nations-UN, 2015). Wheat production in between 1996-2014 in Europe is 133.9 million tons (Mt). This corresponds to 21% of world's wheat production (FAO, 2015). In addition, because of Industrial Revolution in Europe an increasing trend in air pollution and pollutants that persists up to present day can be observed. This increase in air pollution is the cause of critical environmental impacts. Even though there are various studies in Europe about impacts of ozone on human health, not many studies exist to investigate ozone's impact on agriculture. Besides the negative impact on human health, exposure to high concentrations of ozone is a threat to food security and agricultural activities. Elevated O3 concentrations and changes in the concentrations affect plant life functions such as photosynthesis, transpiration, and gas exchanges. It has been found by many scientific studies that ground-level ozone exposure reduces photosynthesis of crops since it damages substomatals apoplast, cell membranes and walls. Decreased photosynthesis result in low growth rates in terms of volume or biomass. In Europe and United States of America (USA), various observational and experimental studies conducted on this subject. These studies resulted in different empirical ozone exposure equations for different parts of the world. Agricultural production losses can be calculated because of these equations. In Europe, AOT40 (cumulative summation of differences in high ozone concentrations over 40 ppb) is a widely used method which is a product of experimental studies conducted in Europe. However, in USA, W126 method (summation of weighted ozone concentrations in day light time by using sigmoidal distribution equation) is being widely used. Other than these two methods there are many other methods used around the world to calculate agricultural production loss due to ozone impacts. Some of these methods are daily summation of difference of threshold values (SUM-X method) or daily mean calculation (M-X method). There are several studies from different parts of the world that were conducted on the impacts of ozone on agricultural crops (i.e., wheat, soybean, rice, potato), their yield losses, and relative yield losses. In a study by USEPA, a 10% crop loss due to ozone was observed in agricultural production in USA. A similar study for the Europe found that the loss was around 5% in Europe. Tropospheric ozone as a regional and global threat to plants threatens our current and future food security. In literature, there are studies conducted on impacts of ozone on agricultural productions for different regions in the world. Even though these studies can show the local loss, they fail to perform well for regional impacts. For this reason, some scientific studies focused on quantifying the impact of ozone pollution on crops using regional or global atmospheric models. Low spatial resolution of global models affects the level of representation of results. Spatial resolution is better in regional studies compared to global ones, however, there are studies utilizing this higher resolution to calculate agricultural production losses. In a study, in India, conducted on impacts of ozone on wheat production loss using WRF/Chem regional chemical transportation model it was found that wheat production loss was 5 Mt for 2005. In a similar study, Eta-CMAQ regional chemical transport model was used to estimate the soybean loss in USA (2005), and found that amount of loss was in range of 1.7-14.2 %. Due to regional changes in ozone concentrations, working with a regional chemistry model yields better results for the calculation of agricultural production loss. In global models, there are many uncertainties due to low resolutions. In this study, WRF/CMAQ modeling system with three different ozone crop exposure indices (AOT40, W126, and M7) was used to estimate wheat production loss in Europe. Growing season was selected as May – July for wheat in Europe. European Environmental Agency (EEA) AirBase database ozone observations were used to calculate mean ozone values for growing season of years 2008 to 2012. The highest growing season average (45.6 ppb) was found in 2009. Averages for other years are as follows, 33.28 ppb for 2008, 29.29 ppb for 2010, 39.12 ppb for 2011, and 30.42 for 2012. This is the reason behind the selected study period growing season (May-July) of 2009. Country based total wheat production data for 2009 were obtained from Food and Agriculture Organizations (FAO). Spatial distribution of country based total wheat production data was performed by using gridded global wheat production map (for year 2000) from studies of Monfreda et al. (2008) and Ramankutty et al. (2008). For each grid cell countries contain a total value was found. These totals then divided by number of grid cells countries contain and grid cell ratios were calculated. These ratios were multiplied with total wheat production data of FAO 2009 and spatially distributed. This created map then remapped according to model area and resolution. In this study, modeling method is WRF / CMAQ modeling system with 30 km spatial resolution. As Meso-scale Atmosphere Circulation Model, WRF-ARW 3.6 (Weather Research and Forecast-Advanced Research WRF) was used with 35 horizontal levels, and with 191 cells in east-west and 159 cells in north-south direction. Also, 0.75 degree ECWMF Era-Interim Reanalysis data was used to prepare initial and boundary conditions of the model. For land-use, MODIS-30 20-class data was prepared. DUMANv2.0 emission model (developed by Istanbul Technical University, Eurasia Institute of Earth Science) was used for emission modeling. Inputs of emission model were anthropogenic, biogenic, and fire emissions. Anthropogenic emissions are created from TNO-2009 database by using DUMANv2.0 with CB05-AERO5 chemical mechanism. MEGAN v2.10 biogenic emission model was used for biogenic emissions. Fire emissions were calculated by data obtained from GFASv1.0 satellite dataset. CMAQv4.7.1 model with CB05-AERO5 chemical mechanism was used for chemical transportation modeling. WRF outputs were converted into M3MODEL structure by using MCIP (Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor). ICON (Initial Cond.) and BCON (Boundary Cond.) were used to create initial and boundary conditions. Inputs for these modules were obtained from ECMWF – MACC 3-hour model output with spatial resolution of 80-100 km. Open sky photolysis data were prepared with JPROC (Photolysis Rate Processor). Ozone variable was obtained from CMAQv4.7.1 model and applied to three ozone exposure indices. Gridded map of wheat production map of 2009 were multiplied with these values, thus calculated the wheat loss in each cell. Total economic loss was calculated by multiplication of calculated production loss and FAO 2009 country based wheat production price index. In order to calculate economic loss between countries, each country's 2009 GDP was normalized. The highest wheat loss was found in Russia (7.14 Mt - 11.6% and 17.3 Mt – 28%) by AOT40 and M7 methods while W126 method found the highest loss in Italy (1.54 Mt-24%). Following countries generally have higher wheat loss in every method, Turkey (6.8 Mt), France (3.47 Mt), Germany (2.45 Mt), and Egypt (5.54 Mt). According to the regional results the highest loss was found in South (8.3 Mt – 61%) and East (12.8 Mt – 37%) Europe, the lowest loss was found in Northern European countries (2.2%- 0.65Mt). Greatest losses were found in M7 method while W126 method has the lowest loss values. This provides a range (min-max) for ozone caused wheat loss in Europe. The highest economic loss was in Russia with 2.23 billion American Dollar (USD). Turkey ($2.24 bn), Italy ($1.64 bn), and Egypt ($ 1.59 bn) were other countries with high economic loss, right after Russia. Eastern Europe has the highest regional economic losses with ($1.6 bn) USD and Southern Europe ($2.8 bn). The lowest economic loss was in Northern Europe ($0.01 bn). Reason behind the high wheat loss values in Southern and Eastern Europe region is due to ozone precursor transport from Middle – Western European region via southerly – easterly meteorological systems. This causes higher ozone concentrations in Southern and Eastern Europe and affect wheat loss. Emission regulations should be more focused and applied in Middle – Western European countries.
-
Ögeİzmir'deki Hava Kirliliğinin Atmosferik Modelleme Yoluyla Analizi(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2016-05-02) Özçomak, Duygu ; Ünal, Alper ; 601131001 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıBesides being Turkey's third largest city with a population exceeding 4 million, İzmir is among the metropolitans that have major economic improvements. Economic growths of big cities inevitably bring some social and environmental issues as well. Among these, air pollution is the most serious and common one that both developed and developing countries are encountered. Air quality problem is affected from a lot of parameters especially in big cities. These include meteorology, topography, population, altitude, industrialization and social-economical developments. Exposure to pollution increases with the increasing human population living in developing urban areas. United Nations announced in 2000 that approximately half of the world population (48%) live in cities and every 3 years 2% growth is expected in the city populations. According to a research in 2013, twenty-three cities in the world have populations higher than 10 million. Air pollution is the existence of the foreign substances suspended in different phases of the atmosphere in varying amount, density and duration that damage human health, living organisms, and ecological balance. Therefore being exposed to air pollution became one of the inevitable results of urban life due to intense anthropogenic activities. Different researches are done on air pollution, which is a significant problem for both developed and developing countries. Especially air pollutants can threaten human health in various ways and levels. While there are high amounts of air pollutants, especially in urban areas, increase in mortality and morbidity rates has been discovered. Particularly lung diseases, neurobehavioral disorders and the effects of cardiovascular diseases are the main adverse effects of air pollution. Growing city population and industrialization level result in increasing energy demand. In densely populated areas, air pollution emission increases by rapid urbanization, transportation, energy production and industrial activities. Air quality management is one of the issues that need to be implemented urgently in the cities where strategical planning is limited or does not exist. Thus, developing emission inventories is one of the most important steps for air quality determination and improvement. These inventories are necessary tools for evaluating human and environmental risks, which are based on anthropogenic sources. Air quality control strategies are determined by air quality and emission standards defined by authorities in regional, national and global scales. Developing emission control strategies, determining applicability of control programs are required for creating reliable emission inventory. It is required to estimate the spatial and temporal density of emission sources in the best possible resolution for forming a healthy air quality control strategy and planning air pollution control reduction strategies. Having a reliable emission inventory is a primary requirement for qualified air quality management system. An emission inventory system supports pollution evaluation activities by data collection and scanning, storing, data organization. Also it creates databases for emission scenarios that will be prepared in the future. In this study, by improving existing emission inventory, activity data, which is more up-to-date and with reduced uncertainty, is compiled thus more reliable entries are provided for the air quality model. Via this model, which is run by the new inventory, temporal and spatial distribution of pollutants is investigated according to the sources. In the model, compiling of pollutants that are distributed according to the sources is set up based on sectoral distributions. Three types of source data is collected in the repository then are calculated depending on the calculation methods of source types. In the model, industry emissions are in SNAP-34 sector, traffic emissions exist in SNAP-7 sector. SNAP-7 also is divided into five based on source emissions. Regional sources named as domestic heating are calculated for SNAP-2 sector. While preparing emission inventory, for each sector required data is obtained from enterprises, calculations are done according to the related sector. Traffic emissions are calculated using COPERT 4 model, which is used in the transportation sector section of the İzmir's inventory. COPERT 4 traffic emission calculation model is commonly used for the calculation of vehicle emissions in several European countries. For industrial emissions, plants' direct emission measurements, which are provided by Izmir Provincial Directorate of Environment and Urban Planning, are calculated and used in the SNAP-34 sector of the study. For domestic heating emissions, which are provided by Izmır Provincial Directorate of Environment and Urban Planning by using the natural gas consumption and coal sales data, are calculated for SNAP-2 sector. In this study, WRF/CMAQ models included in EPA Models-3 system are used together. Meteorological and chemical transport models are run as two domains. Main domain includes whole Europe, North Africa and Eastern Asia, second domain covers whole Turkey and the resolutions are 30 km and 10 km respectively. WRF model is with 3 days spin-up timing is run for January 2010. For the result of the model, temperature and wind speed/direction data that is provided by İzmir Turkish State Meteorological Service is used and Gaziemir station performance analysis is done. When the temperature and station data are evaluated together, it is found that at temperatures in 2 m, for the trend and temperature values partially in line with the model estimations. For the evaluations of the wind speed and direction, at lower levels of wind speed, model estimates are compatible with station observations, although there are some deviations at certain days. There are some uncertainties in the model estimates regarding the wind direction and which is an expected situation. Following the evaluation of the changing model parameters' effects on emissions, air quality model is run to understand how these effects will be reflected into air quality. TNO/MACC-II inventory is used as a baseline scenario and run for 30 km and 10 km. Then CMAQ model is run once again for İzmir SNAP-2, SNAP-34 and SNAP-7 sectors with up-to-date emission data. For TNO inventory and new inventory that is created by new emission calculations, analyses are done by using different analysis methods and the affects of sectoral changes on the model results are investigated. For the emissions as TNO-OUR, total emission maps are created separately for each, the differences from each others are drawn as maps. In OUR emissions, for all pollutants changes are monitored according to the increases and decreases based on sectors. While PM10 emissions are decreased in SNAP-2, increased in SNAP-34 and SNAP-7, as a result overall PM10 emissions are increased. While CO is declined in SNAP-2 sector dramatically, it is increased sharply in SNAP-34 and SNAP-7 sectors. NOx is increased in the sectors except for SNAP-34. SO2 from pollutants is increased in all sectors. As a result of all these changes in emissions, different results are observed in the concentrations for each pollutant. In this study, distributions based on sectors takes into account for the spatial distribution of TNO inventory. Thus, the differences are considered based on the TNO spatial distribution. It is found that for all pollutant emissions and concentrations over İzmir, maximum changes are observed in city center. Through more detailed examinations, days and hours are determined where the maximum differences occur in concentrations and affects and results of these on emissions are investigated. Our findings indicate that the maximum impact of the CMAQ model's concentration results which are used by the newly developed emission inventory as an input, is observed in the İzmir city center where the most emission sources exist.
-
Ögeİstanbul'daki Evsel Isınma Kaynaklı Emisyonların Cmaq Hava Kalitesi Modeli Kullanılarak İncelenmesi(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2016-07-07) Öksüz, Elvin ; Ünal, Alper ; 601121007 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıIstanbul is the most populated city of Turkey as well as Europe. The population is over than 14 million. The city is economical center of the country. Labour and social opportunities makes the city attractive to live and this situation causes inevitable increasing on urbanization of the province. According to authorities, it is expected that the population will be over 16 million in 2030. Due to high population, house holding is also increasing. Distribution of buildings is expending over the city. Residential heating is the main requirement of the people in cold, winter season. By the high population and urbanization, residential heating emissions significantly affects air pollution over the city. Results of many epidemiological studies proves that air pollution causes negative impact on cardiovascular and respiratory system, serious diseases such as cancer and hearth attack. Especially for sensitive people such as elders, children, babies or pregnant the effects may be higher and vitally important. This study aims to examine residential heating impact over Istanbul city by atmospheric modelling. For this purpose WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) meteorology model and CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality) chemistry and transport model was applied. The first step was preparing emission inventory as input of the model. More complete and current emission inventory provides more trustable outputs. Residential heating emissions are generated with activity data and emission factor. The calculated emissions are also compared with TNO and EMEP emissions. Another purpose of this study was developing region specific emission factors of residential heating for Istanbul. The main fuels which are commonly used in the city are determined and combustion system is analysed. Residential heating is commonly supplied from natural gas and solid fuels such as coals and wood. The coals are classified as domestic and import coal. The fuels were burned in conventional stoves that is commonly used individual combustion system in Istanbul and pollutant concentrations are measured. The measurements for solid fuels were continuous and the concentration values of each pollutants are reported minutely. For natural gas, individual combustion system was combi and concentrations were measured instantaneously. Combustion systems, burning efficiency and calorific values of the fuels are essential for burning regime and pollutant concentrations. Moreover, fuel consumption per unit time is a critical parameter for emission factor calculation. By considering all these parameters and concentrations emission factors are calculated for each fuels and pollutants. The main pollutants of this source are SOx, NOx, CO, PM10. Moreover, uncertainties of region specific emission factors that are calculated with continuous measurements are evaluated for solid fuels. Statistical methods are used in order to quantify the factors. Both parametric and non-parametric bootstrapping techniques applied and many distribution fitting models and related diagnostics were applied in the study. The emissions via using calculated region specific emission factors and WRF meteorological model outputs were used as input of CMAQ. The study episode was three months that is from December 1, 2009 to February 30, 2010. As reference case CMAQ model is applied with TNO inventory and then the model is run for the same episode with new emission inventory that is updated with calculated residential emissions. The difference of concentrations between two model outputs provide to understand contribution of the revised residential emissions over the city. The days and hours that have maximum concentration differences are determined as giving the highest response to the new inventory.
-
ÖgeSarıcakaya Sokulum Kayalarının (Eskişehir, Kb Türkiye) Petrojenezi Ve Önemleri(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2016-11-25) Othman, Malik ; Topuz, Gültekin ; 601141010 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıThis work deals with petrogenesis of the granitic rocks within the Sarıcakaya complex in western part of Sakarya zone. The Sarıcakaya complex is unconformably overlain by Middle Jurassic limestone and locally by Early Jurassic clastic rocks to the north, and is thrust over Late Triassic greenschist-facies metabasite and marbles (the Karakaya Complex). In addition, the Sarıcakaya complex is covered by the Tertiary continental sedimentary rocks to the southeast. In this study we employed deferent methods include geological mapping, sampling, petrographic description and bulk rock geochemical analysis. The metamorphic rocks are represented by amphibolite-facies micaschist, gneiss, amphibolite and metagranite. These rock assemblage is characteristic of a continental crust rather than a former oceanic accretionary complex. The metamorphic rocks are crosscut by (i) quartz diorite, (ii) biotite granite, (iii) mafic-ultramafic cumulate stocks, and (iv) voluminously minor felsic granites represented by two-mica granites and leucogranite with local muscovite and garnet. The contact metamorphic effects are only obvious around the gabbro-peridotite cumulate complexes. These maficultramafic cumulate rocks are formerly erroneously regarded as part of an ophiolite. The quartz diorite is metaluminous and medium to high-potassium calcalkaline I-type signature. It has probably formed as a consequence of substantial mantle involvement. Besides the cumulate rocks formed primarily by accumulation processes of a mantlederived basic magma. The hornblende-biotite granite is peraluminous and I-type granite with high-potassium alkaline nature. The leucogranite and two-mica granites are strongly peraluminous S-type granites, and represent partial melting products of continental crust. Available geochronological data on intrusive rocks from the literature suggest that the plutonism in the Sarıcakaya Complex occurred during Early to Late Carboniferous. Regional geological constrains are consistent with magmatic arc to post-collisional setting
-
Ögeİnsuyu Mağarasının Bakteriyel Ve Arkeal Biyoçeşitliliği(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2016-11-25) Tok, Ezgi ; Dalfes, Hasan Nüzhet ; 601131009 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıCaves are one of the unique habitats to see interaction between rock and microbes. In the aspect of microbiological researches, caves are unique environments in order to not only the limitations on exposing to exterior environmental conditions but also the natural isolation for disturbants such as other living creatures. In these harsh environments, Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Chlorobi/Bacteriodetes, Chloroflexi, Deltaproteobacteria, Acidobacteria, Nitrospirae, Actinobacteria and Betaproteobacteria are the most common and diverse group of bacteria because of their adaptation ability. In this study, we conducted cultivation-independent 16S rDNA surveys on the bacterial and archaeal community of Insuyu Cave, Burdur, TURKEY. The complexity of microbial communities has been presented in samples through PCR amplification of the 16S ribosomal RNA (16S rRNA) gene sequence, high resolution melting curve (HRM) and next generation sequence (NGS) based on 16S rRNA metagenomics from a variety of cave samples to identify bacterial and archaeal community profile of Insuyu Cave. A total of nine known bacterial class were found within the context of this research (Figure 3.4). The most prevalent class is alphaproteobacteria with 89,23% of the total bacteria found grouping into four order, with the most abundant ones: rhizobiales (88,85%) and sphingomonadales (0,21%). The followings, ordered by abundancy, are actinobacteria (3,94%), bacilli (2,92%), gammaproteobacteria (1,69%) and betaproteobacteria (0,74%). Also, a total of fourteen genera from ten order were identified in this study (Figure 3.5). The most dominant is methylobacterium with 88,83%, from the class of rhizobiales (88,85%). The followings are propionibacterium (3,58%), dolosigranulum (1,69%), streptococcus (1,10%) and pseudomonas (1,13%). On the other hand, no Archaeal species has been detected at the result of NGS analysis while some archaeal nucleic acid had been marked as a result of PCR analysis. The reasons of this situation has been investigated in the section of discussion.
-
ÖgeTürkiye İçin Gözleme Ve Modele Dayalı Yağış Veri Kümelerinin Kapsamlı Bir Değerlendirmesi(Avrasya Yerbilimleri Enstitüsü, 2017-05-04) Girgin, Gizem ; Şen, Ömer Lütfi ; 601151002 ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim Dalı ; Climate and Marine SciencesYağış, farklı birçok sektör ve disiplindeki araştırmalar ve çalışmalarda sıklıkla ihtiyaç duyulan iklim parametrelerinden biridir. Ancak mekansal değişkenliğinin yüksek olması ve süreksizliği nedeni ile tahmin edilmesi oldukça güçtür. Bu yüzden, Dünya'da farklı yöntemler ile oluşturulmuş birçok veri kümeleri bulunmakta ve oluşturulmaya ve geliştirilmeye devam edilmektedir. Türkiye'nin sınırlarını kapsayan gridlenmiş çeşitli küresel ve bölgesel yağış veri kümeleri bulunmaktadır, fakat bu veri kümeleri arasında kullanılan istasyon sayısı, çözünürlük ve kullanılan interpolasyon teknikleri vb. nedenlerden dolayı farklılıklar vardır. Bu çalışmanın öncelikli amacı; bu veri kümelerinin karmaşık bir topoğrafyaya sahip olan Türkiye'nin yağışının zamansal ve mekansal dağılımını ne kadar iyi temsil ettiği hakkında fikir sahibi olmaktır. Bu gridlenmiş veri kümeleri, istasyon ve uydu ölçümlerinden elde edilmiş verileri, yeniden-analiz verilerini ve iklim modelleri ile oluşturulmuş verileri içermektedir. Çalışmada veri kümeleri mekansal, mevsimsel ve istatiksel olarak karşılaştırılmıştır. Referans veri kümeleri olarak gözlem veri kümelerinin ortalaması kullanılmıştır. Veri kümelerinin zamansal dağılımı göz önünde bulundurularak 1961-1990 ve 1998-2007 dönemi olmak üzere iki farklı dönem analiz edilmiştir. Ayrıca çalışmada Türkiye iklim özelliklerine göre Karadeniz, Akdeniz ve Doğu Anadolu olmak üzere üç bölgeye ayrılmış ve istatiksel analiz sırasında bu bölgeler için de veri kümeleri incelenmiştir. Türkiye haritaları ile her bir veri kümesinin Türkiye için yağış dağılımı incelenmiştir. Dönem ortalamaları tablosu ile veri kümeleri büyüklük açısından karşılaştırılmıştır. Türkiye fark haritaları kullanılarak refereans veri kümeleri ile aralarındaki farklar gözlenmiştir. Mevsimsel analizler de ise, her iki dönem için mevsimlik ortalamalar karşılaştırılmış ve aylık dağılım grafikleri ile aralarındaki farklara bakılmıştır. İstatiksel analiz için Taylor Diyagramı kullanılmıştır ve veri kümelerinin referans veri kümesi ile olan uyumu incelenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre sıklıkla kullanılan veri kümeleri arasında dikkate değer farklılıklar gözlenmiştir. Türkiye için gözlem veri kümeleri dağılım ve büyüklük açısından model ve yeniden-analiz veri kümelerine göre daha iyi sonuçlar vermiştir. Model, yeniden-analiz ve uydu veri kümeleri gözlem veri kümelerine göre büyüklük olarak daha yüksek değerler göstermişlerdir. Özellikle yeterli sıklıkta istasyon ağı bulunmayan dağlık bölgelerde model veri kümeleri gözlem veri kümeleri arasındaki fark daha fazladır. Buna en iyi örnek; Doğu Karadeniz bölgesidir. Mevsimsel olarak incelendiğinde veri kümeleri arasındaki farkların kış ve bahar aylarında artmaktadır. Genel olarak bakıldığında, referans veri kümesi olarak kullanılan ENSEMBLE veri kümesine en yakın tahminde bulunan veri seti çalışmada TR_STA_GRIDDED olarak isimlendirilen Türkiye istasyon veri kümesidir.
-
ÖgeKalkolitik Ve Tunç Çağlarında Göller Bölgesindeki İklimsel Değişiklikler Ve Bu Değişikliklerin Bölgedeki Arkeolojik Yerleşim Sistemlerine Etkisi(Avrasya Yerbilimleri Enstitüsü, 2017-05-05) Tekin, Arman ; Arıkan, Bülent ; 601131008 ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim Dalı ; Climate and Marine SciencesBu çalışmanın amacı, Kalkolitik ve Tunç çağlarında (~G.Ö.8000-3000/~M.Ö. 6000-1000) Göller Bölgesi'nde meydana gelen iklimsel değişiklikleri bir paleoiklim modeli yardımıyla modelleyerek önemli iklimsel parametrelerin (yıllık ortalama yağış ve sıcaklık gibi) gösterdiği değişimlerin derece ve önemini kantitatif yöntemlerle çalışmaktır. Bu değişimlerin bölgede yapılan arkeolojik yayınlardan oluşturulan arkeolojik yerleşim sistemlerine etkisini araştırmaktır. Göller Bölgesi coğrafik ve kültürel açıdan bakıldığında Burdur, Isparta ve Antalya illeri ile temsil edilmektedir. Çalışma kapsamına Ege, Akdeniz ve İç Anadolu bölgeleri arasındaki ilişkileri anlamak adına Afyon ve Konya illeri de dâhil edilmiştir. Bu illerinden elde ettiğimiz iklimsel kayıtlar ve çalışma dönemini temsil eden 500'ü aşkın arkeolojik yerleşme kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışma kapsamında istatistiksel verilerin incelenmesi için R Studio kullanılmış, çalışılan bölgenin mekânsal verilerinin bilgisayar ortamında toplanması, coğrafi bilgi sistemine girilmesi, mekânsal analizlerin yapılması, görüntülenmesi ve uygun formatta çıktı alınabilmesi için ise açık kaynak kodlu GRASS CBS (Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri) kullanılmıştır. Yapılacak olan tüm analizlerin ve buna bağlı elde edilecek olan tüm verilerin, geçmişteki iklimsel değişiklilerin arkeolojik yerleşim sistemlerini ne derece etkilediğini anlamak için ise Makrofiziksel İklim Modeli (MİM) kullanılmıştır. Çalışmadan elde ettiğimiz ilk verilere göre, Kalkolitik Çağ'dan Erken Tunç Çağı sonuna kadar (~G.Ö. 8000-4000/~M.Ö. 6000-2000) arkeolojik yerleşmelerin sayısında artış görülmüştür. Bu süre içerisinde ise yaşayan Göller Bölgesi insanlarının yeryüzü şekilleri içerisinde düzlük alanlarda, suya yakın geçiş noktalarında (kanal) ve dağın bayır kısımlarında yaşamayı, zirve ve vadilere oranla daha fazla tercih etmişlerdir. Yağış ve sıcak verilerine bakıldığında ise, Geç Kalkolitik Çağ'dan Geç Tunç Çağı sonuna kadar (G.Ö. 5600-3000/M.Ö. 3600-1000) olan zaman diliminde yağışta ve sıcaklıkta azalmaların görüldüğü ve buna ek olarak her 2000 yıllık süreçte Göller Bölgesinde yerel ve bölgesel değişimlerin olduğu gözlenmiştir. Yine yağış ve sıcaklık verileri göz önünde bulundurulduğunda, 4.2 ka iklim olayının Göller Bölgesi için bölgesel bir kuraklığı işaret etmediği görülmektedir. Orta Holosen sürecindeki iklimsel değişikliklerin, bu dönemde yaşamış toplulukların sosyal, ekonomik ve siyasi sistemlerin değişmesinde payı olabileceği düşünülse bile, bu değişimin sadece yerel ölçekte gerçekleştiği ve küresel bir etkisi olamayacağını söylemek doğru olacaktır.
-
ÖgeÇavuşbaşı Granodiyoriti'nin Yaşı Ve Petrojenezi(Avrasya Yerbilimleri Enstitüsü, 2018-06-04) Ayanoğlu, Esen ; Topuz, Gültekin ; 601991010 ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim Dalı ; Climate and Marine SciencesÇavuşbaşı Granodiyoriti, İstanbul Boğazı'nın doğusunda, Batı Pontidlerde İstanbul Zonu içerisinde bulunur. Üst Kretase yaşlı magmatik sokulum kayası (plüton), İstanbul Zonu'nun paleozoyik birimlerini yer yer kesmektedir. Alt Ordovisiyen yaşlı kumtaşı ve şeyllerin içine sokulum yapar. Etrafında yaklaşık olarak 300-500 m civarında bir dokanak başkalaşım halesi vardır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, bu sokulumun petrojenezini ve yaşını sınırlandırmaktır. Çavuşbaşı granodiyoriti yaklaşık olarak 25 km2'lik bir alanı kaplamaktadır. Çavuşbaşı plütonu, çapı yaklaşık olarak 4,5 - 5,6 km arasında değişen dairesel bir granodiyorit sokulumudur. Yüzeysel aşınma nedeniyle tamamen arenalaşmış bir topoğrafya gözlenmesine rağmen dere yataklarında, inşaat ve yol için açılan bölgelerdeki mostralardan alınan numunelerin mikroskobik ve arazi gözlemleriyle jeolojik birimler ayırtlanmıştır. Dalma-batma ile kıtasal levha kenarına yerleşmiş bu granitik plüton, kalkalkalen özellikte, hornblend içerikli, magmatik bileşimli I-tipi granittir. Sokulum genel itibarıyla granodiyoritten oluşmakta ve yer yer küçük ölçekte kuvarsdiyorit porfirlere geçiş yapmaktadır. Ana kayayı granodiyorit ve kuvarsdiyorit oluşturmaktadır. Granodiyoritin başlıca bileşenleri plajioklas, kuvars, K-feldspat, hornblend ve biyotittir. Kuvarsdiyorit ise aynı minerallerden oluşmakta olup, yalnızca porfirik dokusu ile granodiyoritlerden ayrılmaktadır. Çavuşbaşı Granodiyoriti ayrıca aplit ve pegmatit damarları, mafik magmatik anklavlar ve dayklar içermektedir. Aplitler beyaz renkli, ince taneli, feldspat ve kuvars içerikli granit kökenli damar kayaçlarıdır. Aplit damarları mm boyutunda tanelerden oluşmakta ve genişlikleri 0,5 - 40 cm arasında değişmektedir. Pegmatitler pembe renkli, iri taneli, aplit ile aynı bileşime sahip damar kayaçlarıdır. Pegmatit damarları cm boyutunda tanelerden oluşmakta ve genişlikleri 3 - 8 cm arasında değişir. Aplit ve pegmatit damarları yatay olarak ayrışmış granodiyoritler içerisinde metrelerce izlenebilmektedir. İnceleme alanında bulunan aplitler Karanlıkdere'de yoğunlaşırken, pegmatitler Çiflik mahallesinde yoğunlaşmaktadır. Aplit ve pegmatitler granit magmatizmasının son evre ürünleridir. Mafik magmatik anklavlar, ince taneli, koyu renkli ve kesin dokanaklıdır. 0,5 - 30 cm arasında değişen boyutlarda, yer yer yuvarlak, yer yer köşeli, yer yer de elips biçimindedir. Anklav mikrogranüler dokulu olup, ince taneli matriksin (plajioklas, kuvars, hornblend, biyotit) içinde, 2 mm'ye varan hornblend ve plajioklas minerallerinden oluşur. Farklı magma bileşenlerinin magma mingling ile oluşturduğu akma bantları görülmektedir. Dayklar kırıklı ve çatlaklı; hornblend ve biyotit içeren dasit ve andezit; bazen de koyu yeşil renkli lamprofirler halindedir. Ortaç bileşimli dayklarda ince taneli feldspat grubu matriksin içinde, 6 mm'ye kadar honblend, ortoklas ve plajioklas mineralleri görülmektedir. Daykların boyutları 20 cm'den 3,50 m'ye kadar değişmektedir. Ortaç bileşimli daykların çok az bir kısmında, ana kayayı kesen kenarlarında kısmen soğuma kenarları oluşmuştur; bunlar bazı yerlerde ince dilimlenmeler, bazı yerlerde ise erime şeklinde gözlenmektedir. Ana kaya da ısı transferinden etkilenmiş, bu nedenle oluşan pişme dokanağı, soğuma kenarları boyunca görülen renk değişimi ile farkedilmektedir. Adakitik kayaçlar kalkalkalendir, dalma batma ile ilişkilidirler. SiO2 ≥ %56; Al2O3 ≥ %15; MgO < %3; %3,5 ≤ Na2O ≤ %7,5 Sr > 300 ppm; Y < 15 ppm; Sr/Y oranı > 20; Yb ≤ 1,9 ppm ve (La/Yb)kn > 10'dur. K2O/Na2O oranları düşüktür (~0,42); Mg numarası 51'dir. Zr ve Ti anomalisi çok küçük veya belirgin değildir. Negatif Nb anomalisi vardır. Eu anomalisi yoktur; pozitif Sr anomalisi yani Sr içeriğinin yüksek olması adakitik magmanın tipik özelliğidir. Jeokimyasal olarak Çavuşbaşı granodiyoriti (ana kaya) dar alanda değişen bir bileşim sunar. Orta K-lu kalkalen niteliklidir. Aluminyum doygunluk indeksi 0,90 ile 1,04 arasında değişmekte olup, bu kayanın metalumin-peralumin nitelikte olduğuna işaret eder. Çavuşbaşı Granodiyoriti kalkalkalen, SiO2 ≥ %56 (64,91 – 68,26), Al2O3 ≥ %15 (16,13 – 16,84), MgO < %3 (1,52 – 2,04), %3,5 ≤ Na2O ≤ %7,5 (4,80 – 5,20), Sr > 300 ppm (578,10 – 900,70 ppm), Y < 15 ppm (5,30 – 10,20 ppm), Sr/Y > 20 (70,2 – 112,49), Yb ≤ 1,9 ppm (0,56 – 0,95) ppm ve (La/Yb)kn > 10 (12,64 – 19,98 ppm) 'dir. Adakitik kayaçların aksine K2O/Na2O oranı 0,42'den küçüktür (0,25 – 0,41); Mg numarası 51'den büyüktür (52,99 - 61,68); pozitif Zr anomalisi and negatif Ti anomalisine sahip olmasına rağmen negatif Nb anomalisi, Eu anomalisinin yok ya da çok az belirgin olması ve belirgin Sr anomalisi ile Çavuşbaşı Granodiyoriti dalma-batma ile oluşmuş, adakitik nitelikli kayaçlara benzemektedir. Aplitler yüksek K-lu kalkalen niteliklidir. Alüminyum doygunluk indeksi 1,02 olup, metalumin-peralumin nitelikte olduğuna işaret eder. Düşük Na2O (%3,26), düşük Sr/Y oranı (7,04), düşük Sr değeri (72,6 ppm) ve negatif Eu anomalisi (Eu/Eu*= 0,50) ile adakitik kayaçlardan ayrılmaktadır. Magmanın son evresinde oluşan aplitler, granitik bileşimiyle inceleme alanındaki en yüksek SiO2 (%77,69) ve en yüksek K2O (%5,18), en düşük Fe2O3 (%0,44), en düşük MgO (%0,04) ve en düşük CaO (%0,56) değerlerine sahip olması ile üst kabuktan türemiş magmalara benzemektedir. Anklavlar orta K-lu kalkalen niteliklidir. Alüminyum Doygunluk İndeksi 0,84 olup, metalümin karakterlidir. Anklav numunesi, SiO2 (%55,45) oranıyla inceleme alanındaki en mafik üyedir. Ağır nadir toprak elementleri adakitlere göre daha yüksektir: Yb değeri 2,48 ppm; Y değeri 25,7 ppm'dir. Sr/Y oranı (27,99) adakitlere göre düşüktür ve negatif Eu anomalisi (Eu/Eu*=0,62) ile adakitik kayaçlardan ayrılmaktadır. Fe2O3 (%6,75); MgO (%3,57) ve CaO (%6,06) açısından granodiyorit, kuvarsdiyorit ve aplitlerden yüksek olması ile mantodan türemiş mafik magmalara benzemektedir. Bir granodiyorit örneğinden ayırtlanan zirkonlar üzerinde Lazer Ablasyon ICP-MS cihazıyla yapılan U/Pb yaş tayiniyle 68,32 ± 0,66 My (2σ) bulunmuştur. Buna göre Çavuşbaşı granodiyoriti Maastrihtiyen döneminde sokulum yapmıştır ve Üst Kretase'de kuzeye dalan Neo-Tetis okyanus litosferinin yitimiyle ilgilidir. Oluşumu muhtemelen ya İntrapontid ya da İzmir-Ankara- Erzincan Kenedi boyunca okyanusal litosferin kuzeye doğru dalımı ile ilişkilidir.
-
Öge27 Temmuz 2017 Tarihinde İstanbul Üzerinde Meydana Gelen Dolu Olayının Wrf Simülasyonu Performansı(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2018-06-06) Toker, Emir ; Şen, Ömer Lütfi ; 601151011 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıHail development is a very regional and short-term consequence. Therefore, hail is one of the most difficult predictable meteorological event. Nowadays, it is possible to predict it with remote sensing and short-term forecasting tools. After the increase of the computing capacity of the computers, in the studies, high-performance computers and improved weather forecasting models are used, and the efficiency of weather forecast methods is analyzed by comparing observations with model outputs. Physics options in the model are modified according to facts and characteristics of the event and the simulations are run in order to predict the meteorological phenomenon close to real weather event using different parametrization. The water droplets in the deep convective clouds are transported to the higher levels by means of ascending and descending air movements. Water droplets cool down at these higher levels and become ice particles. As a result of the repetition of the vertical transport in the cloud, the ice particle become larger. They fall when they defeat the gravity force. Several extreme weather events took place in Istanbul in July 2017. The heavy hail event on July 27 damaged hundreds of buildings and thousands of vehicles. The cost of this hazardous event was estimated to be around 300 Million US Dollars. As a result of these weather events, the total precipitation was recorded as of 30-40 kg. In the Northern Hemisphere, jets emerging in the middle and upper latitudes and as a result of the pressure systems that have been strengthened over Europe, there has been ascending air movements, including the Thracian region, and vertical clouds have formed. This system has been effective for some time. The study area includes the area where the hail event has occurred and is effective. Istanbul region is positioned in the centre of the study area. Area information, initial and boundary conditions are identified with the data and model is run for hail model simulations. The state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model used in the study has an architecture that dissolves both the surface and the atmosphere. The high-resolution data can be quickly solved using numerical methods according to the physical options that the user specifies. Hail event is investigated using WRF atmospheric model. The model domain is set up with 4 nested domains (27, 9, 3 and 1 km resolutions from outer to inner) and Istanbul, located in northwestern Turkey, was used as the central point (41.96°N 20.06°E). Model simulations are performed for 30 hours starting from 18:00 UTC on 26 July 2017, and this time range includes 12-hour spin-up time. The temporal resolution of the outputs obtained for the four domains is 15 minutes for the innermost area and 180 minutes for the outer areas. In order to be able to construct meteorological conditions real-like, the starting time was determined to be 18 UTC on July 26, 2017. The model was run for 30 hours and the first 6 hours were evaluated as the spin-up time. ERA-Interim Reanalysis data which has 38 different pressure levels with 0.75°x0.75°active and 6-hour temporal resolution was preferred to use as the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the model simulations. In order to compare with the model results, radar, satellite and meteorological station data were taken from Turkish State Meteorological Service. The performance of the model used in simulating the hail event was assessed by comparing the model outputs and observations. Sensitivity tests were performed for parameterizations such as microphysics, cumulus and boundary layer schemes and different combinations were conducted, because the performance of the model with the default physics options was deemed poor. In the simulations made to predict the hail event, the physics options that can solve the formation of the hail and the vertically developed clouds were investigated. Kain-Fritsch, New SAS, Multi-Scale KF, KF-CuP and New Tiedtke options were used for the cumulus, YSU and MYNN2 options were used for the boundary layer, Dudhia and RRTMG options were used for shortwave radiation, RRTM and RRTMG options were used for long longwave radiation. These parameters were changed for each new simulation and results were analysed for each combination. The thesis focuses on determining the physics options that improve the performance of WRF model in simulating the hail event. During the process sensitivity tests were performed, reanalysis and observed data were used. Amongst the different combinations, it is found that the model reproduced the hail event fairly well when it is run with Milbrandt 2-moment microphysics scheme, Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme and MYNN2 planetary boundary layer scheme. Recording to the results, accumulated precipitation is 40 mm from 27 July to 28 July; hail event starts at 14:15 UTC; and the cloud top temperature over Istanbul is about -50°C at the same time. Deep convective clouds reachs about 12 km height. Maximum hail concentration is about 400/kg at 14:15 UTC and it occurs at about 500mb pressure level. Reflectivity is about 50 dBZ when the hail event occurred.
-
ÖgeTürkiye'yi Etkileyen Siklon Yörüngeleri: Ncep 2 - Era-ınterım(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2018-06-06) Bozbura, Merih ; Şen, Ömer Lütfi ; 601161005 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıCyclones are low pressure atmospheric systems that control weather conditions every day in many places of mid-latitudes. Any systematic change in the density, frequency or location of cyclones has a wide range of influence on the local climate. When they arise it takes time to evolve and become a mature cyclone and fade away after a cyclone exists. So, lifetime of a cyclone is about a week or so. As it is known from the polar front theory, this strong horizontal temperature gradient results from the cold air from the Polar cell and the warm air from Ferrel cell moving towards each other and this movement develops a transition zone. If there is a convenient environment in the upper atmosphere, the pressure begins to drop, developing a low center at the surface, so cyclogenesis starts. The cold air moves to south and starts to rotate around warm air, forming a cold front, and the warm air moves north into the cold air, developing a warm front. While the system moves to the east, the central pressure keeps reducing and the cold front approaches to the warm front. Ultimately, the cold front cuts off the connection between the warm front and surface and goes under the cooler air ahead of the warm front, thus occluded front forms. This mature system covers a large area and vigorous weather events generally occur in the occlusion stage. The huge warm sea surface of the Mediterranean Basin immensely triggers cyclogenesis and evolutions of the cyclones. These cyclones can bring rain and snow in the form of flooding, snow storms and severe thunderstorm with hail. For instance, a long-running snowstorm hit Turkey on January 22nd, 2004 and it lasted until January 25nd. There were a lot of accidents, the power outage, and one of the rope of Bosphorus Bridge was broken. Shortly, life stopped in ˙ Istanbul and nearby cities for a few days. Purpose of this thesis is to identify the trajectories of cyclones affecting Turkey from two different reanalysis data sets. Detection of cyclone is achieved by The University of Melbourne automatic cyclone tracking scheme (CTS) using 6 hourly NCEP Reanalysis 2 and ERA-Interim mean sea level pressure field respectively at 2.5 x 2.5 and 1.0 x 1.0 spatial resolution for a region between 15◦W - 60◦E and 20◦N - 60◦N for 38 years (1979 - 2016). The first step is to transform latitude and longitude data into 101 x 101 polar stereographic (PS) array via bicubic spline interpolation. Smoothing is applied to ERA-Interim pressure field, however it is not preferred for NCEP 2 data because of its low spatial resolution. The local maxima of relative cyclonic geostrophic vorticity (x) value via the Laplacian of pressure is sought through comparing each grid point with surrounding eight grid points. If there is no closed depression reasonable distance (diflt1), scanning for minimum pressure gradient begins to find an open depression in closest allowable space (diflt2). There is no need to integrate the diflt1 parameter to ERA-Interim case after smoothing. Each cyclone is followed from the first moment of its formation to its perish. This procedure involves three steps. First one is estimating the subsequent positions of the centres. Second is looking for probability of a relations between the estimated position and the current position. The subsequent positions are predicted via prediction velocity (upred). Positions were estimated using upred. Final step is choosing most probable candidate for matching. Thus, this study shows that the most of the cyclones affecting Turkey are generally westerly and they follow a southerly trajectory in winter, however their trajectory shifts northward towards summer. Cyclones affecting Turkey generally originate in Gulf of Genoa, northern Italy, and the Black Sea, but there are other regions such as the Aegean Sea, Cyprus, and Sahara. However, some changes are seen season to season. Gulf of Genoa and northern Italy regions play major role for all seasons. In winter seasons, Turkey is also affected by southern Italy, the Aegean Sea and the Black Sea cyclones other than Gulf of Genoa and northern Italy cyclones. Sahara, Cyprus, the Aegean Sea, and the Black Sea are cyclogenesis regions in spring seasons. While winter cyclones traverse, summer cyclones are more stationary. Cyclones of Cyprus and the Black Sea have high intensity in summer season. In autumn seasons, cyclones of Sahara, Cyprus, and the Black Sea become pronounced. The results of NCEP2 and ERA-Interim are generally similar, however there are several differences between them. There are approximately 31% more tracks in the result of NCEP2 than ERA-Interim. In all seasons, there are more tracks in North Africa in ERA-Interim results than NCEP2. While there is a few tracks around Syria, Iraq, and Persian Gulf in ERA-Interim results, NCEP2 results has more tracks than ERA-Interim in these regions in the spring, summer, and autumn seasons. The average central pressure of cyclones is around 1010 hPa for ERA-Interim and 1009 hPa for NCEP2. While the mean cyclone intesity is 0.68 hPa(◦lat)−2 for ERA-Interim, it is obtained to be 0.53 hPa(◦lat)−2 for NCEP2. Also, the mean radius of the cyclones is around 4.10 ◦lat for ERA-Interim and it is found to be 4.08 ◦lat for NCEP2.
-
ÖgeDoğu Kayını (fagus Orientalis) Ağacının Alansal Dağılım Modellemesi: Geçmiş, Günümüz Ve Gelecek(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2018-06-08) Dağtekin, Ayşegül Dilşad ; Dalfes, Hasan Nüzhet ; 601161010 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıClimate change affects forest biomes more severely than ever, even with the ~1°C temperature warming so far. Geographical distributions of these biomes are linked to warming temperatures and decreasing precipitation. Species try to adapt to this change by changing these geographical barriers. Recent warming not only impacted the survival rates of most tree species, also increased risks in handling extreme events. Fagus orientalis is a temperate, deciduous, broad-leaved species, which covers a wide area from the eastern Balkans through Turkey, Caucasia, Crimea and northern Iran, including the Amanos Mountains in the south, with a large elevational distribution from sea level to 2100 m. Beech has an important role in terms of dominating forests and creating new ecosystems, also it is used by many industries. Several research indicate that these species are disturbed by changing the climate in terms of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. Because of its importance in forestry, industry and ecosystem Fagus sp. were the focus of interest in this study. We conducted species distribution model simulations with five different algorithms embedded in biomod2 R package – BIOCLIM, GAM, GLM, RF, MaxEnt – and with environmental data from the climate of the present, past, and future from Wordclim version 1.4, as well as digital elevation model for altitude from NASA. Our simulations covered an area in Eurasia where Fagus sp. is seen, exact coordinates of 18 – 62 East and 33 – 51 North. We verified our model with present-day classifications, which fitted well the distributional data obtained from General Directorate of Forestry and EUFORGEN project. These models were used to 'predict' distributions through climate changes spanning Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 bp), Mid-Holocene (6,000 bp), 2050 and 2070 obtained from two global climate models, MIROC-ESM and CCSM4. We observed that F. orientalis distribution is toward the northeast from its present distribution, where mountainous regions are intense, colder and wetter climates are available according to future conditions. These results led us to verify that drier climate and higher temperatures are considered as limitations to these species. Additionally, we could identify refugia areas for this particular species in the past which might lead to new studies. We believe that the outcomes of this study would help improving management and conservation plans for Fagus orientalis in order to protect it from severe effects of climate change.
-
ÖgeTürkiye Orman Fenolojisindeki Değişikliklerin Modıs Uydu Verileri Aracılığıyla İncelenmesi(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2018-06-08) İpek, Yetkin ; Dalfes, Hasan Nüzhet ; 601161006 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıThe Start of Growing Season (SGS) marks the time of year where a type of plant starts its growing season; therefore, forming green leaves. The End of Growing Season (EGS) is the opposite, where plants end their growing seasons and start defoliation. The difference in green leaf changes are much more dramatic in deciduous forests than coniferous forests, all plants show annual differences after SGS and EGS. As all plants undergo SGS and EGS, they look for environmental cues in order to keep up with their annual cycles. To detect variations in SGS and EGS, MODIS imagery was used. MODIS satellites have a polar orbit and capture images in 7 spectral bands daily. To detect the SGS and EGS from MODIS satellite data by comparing the surface reflectance in red versus green through the GRVI index was used. The threshold for the detection of SGS and EGS is set to GRVI = 0. If GRVI > 0, then it is currently the growing season; if GRVI < 0 then it is the senescence season. Yearly GRVI estimates are analyzed to detect the SGS and EGS by catching GRVI zero crossing. We tried to detect the yearly shifts of SGS and EGS using this GRVI estimates. For these measurements, daily MODIS Terra MOD09GA V006 products were downloaded for the period 2007-2017, then analyzed through an R script using RASTER package. Noise reduction was applied on the results using Exponential Moving Average and the GRVI=0 crossings were detected. Later, the refined data were compared annually and among regions with different vegetation to look for SGS and EGS shifts over time. Although in all plots there were obvious peaks during Growing Season, in some cases of mountain ranges and coniferous forests, GRVI method was unable to detect SGS or EGS; as there was no 0 crossing. In the regions where GRVI was successful, SGS shifted to an earlier DOY and EGS shifted to a later DOY on a scale of 11 years. Overall, the GRVI has been successful in showing seasonal patterns in a given region.
-
ÖgeDeğı̇şen İklı̇m Şartları Altında Fırat - Dı̇cle Havzasında Su Kaynaklarının Sürdürülebı̇lı̇rlı̇ğı̇ Sorunu(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2019-05-01) Zeynalzadeh, Mahsa ; Şen, Ömer Lütfi ; 601161014 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim DalıThe global and regional hydrological cycle can be affected by temperature changes in the coming years. In the regions where the water cycle depends on the snowmelt, these fluctuations can be more than other areas due to the effects of increasing temperature on snow cover and seasonal runoff. There are many studies about the consequences and threats of climate change on water sustainability and hydrological cycle around the world. However, the quantity and quality of the data that can be used in related studies has been affected by the insufficient measurement networks and trouble of upkeep of the accessible hydro-meteorological stations. Moreover, regional conflicts and local disputes can seriously complicate field survey in some of these regions. The Euphrates and Tigris River Basin (ETB) has been affected by climate change, and it suffers from all the aforementioned shortcomings. The ETB is a single transboundary watercourse system located in the Middle East. The basin includes two snow- fed rivers called the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, and its water recourses are used for different aims including domestic use, irrigation, hydroelectric power generation, etc. Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran are the main riparian countries in the ETB. These countries have started development projects in the basin since 1960s. In this sense, the Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) by Turkey has been started for agricultural and hydropower development in the region. These anthropogenic factors and increasing population, together with negative impacts of climate change, will cause mismatches between water demand and water supply in the basin. This study, by utilizing the outputs of GCM (Global Climate Model) and RCM (Regional Climate Model) simulations, aims to contribute to the understanding of future climate variations and their effects on the future of the water resource sustainability in the ETB. Annual time series of climate data provided by Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were used to determine the impacts of climate change in the ETB. In other words, outputs of GCMs and RCMs were used to understand the effects of the climate change on regional water budget in the future (periods of 2016-2035, 2041-2060 and 2081-2100) with respect to past climate (period of 1986-2005). Analysis of the changes in the hydrometeorological parameters (temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and net water flux output) were provided using the the outputs from the global and regional climate models based on the territories of the riparian countries in the ETB (i.e., Iran, Syria, Turkey and Iraq). Moreover, the changes in 10 climate indices based on riparian country territories in the ETB were analyzed using output of CMIP5 models for all three periods. These parameters include maximum length of dry spell (CDD), maximum length of wet spell (CWD), daily temperature range (DTR), number of tropical nights (TR), growing season length (GSL), annual total precipitation when daily precipitation >99th percentile (R99pTOT), maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (Rx5day), simple precipitation intensity index (SDII), warm nights index (TN90p) and warm days index (TX90p). The most striking point is that increasing temperature which is more pronounced for 2081- 2100 period may have profound implications for the snow cover and runoff in the basin. According to global and regional simulations, temperature in the whole Euphrates - Tigris basin increases. Simulations indicate 1 °C increase in surface temperature for 2016-2035 period whereas it is about 3°C and 6 °C for 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 periods, respectively. The consequence of this increase in temperature in the regional hydrological cycle is the reduction in snow cover and temporal shifts to earlier days in melting of snow in the highlands. In terms of precipitation, there is a wide harmony between the simulations, and it decreases up to 15% in Turkey and Syria for the 21century. Precipitation in Iraq and Iran are projected to increase by 5% for 2016-2035 and 2041-2060 periods, whereas simulations produce a decrease by 15% for 2081-2100 period. Predicted changes in the evapotranspiration indicate generally increases in the basin for the early period in response to the increasing temperatures, however it decreases by the end of the century because of decreasing precipitation. Based on different experiments, the surface runoff is found to decrease about 10-50% in Turkey and Iran by the end of the 21st century. Surface runoff in Syria and Iraq also decreases by140% and 250%, respectively. Investigation of climate indices in the ETB indicates that climate extremes will become more intense in the future. Investigation of climate changes in the ETB based on the riparian country territories indicates that Turkey will undergo the most changes. The changes in the surface runoff is projected to be by 20-50% reduction in Turkey by the end of the present century. But down-stream countries, especially Iraq and Syria which are dependent on the water released by the upstream Turkey will experience more stress for the water crisis in the future. The climate change in the ETB may lead to other natural hazards such as salinization and desertification. The ETB has faced severe droughts in the past years. For instance, the severe drought in the winter of 2007 - 2008 had a big effect on the agricultural production in the region. The initiation of development projects by the riparian countries since 1960s which are uncoordinated with water availability in the ETB and crisis in water demand management and inefficient water policy of the riparian countries within the national framework are the main causes of water mismatch between supply and demand in the ETB. On the other hand, changes in hydroclimatic parameters can exacerbate water disputes in the region due to increased water demand and supply imbalance. Important solutions to this problem include coordinated regional actions and assessment of the factors for water allocation.