İklim Bilimi ve Meteoroloji Mühendisliği

Bu koleksiyon için kalıcı URI

http://hdl.handle.net/11527/19782

Gözat

Yazar "Yürük Sonuç, Cemre" ile İklim Bilimi ve Meteoroloji Mühendisliği'a göz atma
  • Öge
    Convection-permitting climate simulations with COSMO-CLM over northwestern Türkiye under the RCP8.5 scenario
    (Wiley, 2023) Yürük Sonuç, Cemre ; Ünal, Yurdanur ; İncecik, Selahattin ; orcid.org/0000-0002-8585-1319 ; orcid.org/0000-0003-2006-1372 ; İklim Bilimi ve Meteoroloji Mühendisliği
    The performance of the climate simulations by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM forced by MPI-ESM-LR, as well as projected future temperature and precipitation conditions over northwestern Türkiye at the convection-permitting resolution, are shown in this study. In terms of mean, maximum and minimum temperatures and daily total precipitation, the model response was examined. Comparisons with observations were made on an annual and seasonal basis. The convection-permitting model (0.0275°) provides a satisfactory representation of annual and seasonal mean temperatures according to bias, MAE and RMSE. Better results were found for precipitation with respect to RE, MAE and RMSE. Finally, we used the RCP8.5 emission scenario to investigate future climate changes in terms of average temperature and precipitation variations for northwestern Türkiye, including Istanbul, over two projection periods (2041–2060 and 2071–2090) compared to the reference period (1991–2005). The model predicts significant warming in northwestern Türkiye, particularly in Istanbul and its environs, by the end of the century, as well as a general decrease in precipitation, especially evident in the spring and summer. The findings of this study can be used to develop climate adaptation policies based on temperature and precipitation variables in and around the study area.
  • Öge
    Future change of humid heat extremes and population exposure in Turkey
    (Wiley, 2024) Dönmez, Berkay ; Dönmez, Kutay ; Yürük Sonuç, Cemre ; Unal, Yurdanur ; orcid.org/0000-0001-5978-3642 ; orcid.org/0000-0003-2344-5822 ; orcid.org/0000-0002-8585-1319 ; orcid.org/0000-0003-2006-1372 ; İklim Bilimi ve Meteoroloji Mühendisliği
    Global climate projections show that humid heat extremes will expand toward the higher latitudes, making the midlatitudes hotspots for these extremes. Therefore, a thorough explanation of their regional characteristics becomes crucial, given that the changes in these extremes can potentially render a large proportion of the global population at risk. Here, we perform the first analysis of historical and projected changes in the intensity and frequency of humid heat extremes and quantify the population exposure to these extremes in Turkey, using long-term simulations from the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model of Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO-CLM) under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. We portray not only the nationwide changes in the humid heat extremes and population exposure but also their regional aspects by exploiting the K-means clustering algorithm. Our results suggest significant future increases in the intensity and frequency of these extremes over a wide geographical area, which includes the surroundings of Adana, Antalya, Izmir, Sakarya, Ordu and Diyarbakir, most of which are coastal locations. Over most of these regions, severe humid heat stress is expected to last nearly a month every year, with almost 56% of the land area is projected to experience local historical upper tail heat stress conditions for at least an additional 10 consecutive hours. Further, we explicate a significant rise in the number of people exposed to severe humid heat stress, concentrated along most coastal regions, by as much as 1.6 million person-days. More than 20% of Turkey's population may confront severe humid heat stress for at least 1 h, with that percentage falling to 4.15% for at least five consecutive hours, which indicates that people will not only endure more intense humid heat stress but also be exposed to these conditions consecutively over a period of many hours.