The effects of structural adjustment policies on labor market and income distribution in Turkey
The effects of structural adjustment policies on labor market and income distribution in Turkey
Dosyalar
Tarih
1999
Yazarlar
Onaran, Özlem
Süreli Yayın başlığı
Süreli Yayın ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayınevi
Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
Institute of Social Sciences
Institute of Social Sciences
Özet
Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde 1970'lerin sonundan ve 1980'lerin başından itibaren esas olarak IMF (Uluslararası Para Fonu) ve Dünya Bankası tarafından şekillendirilmiş olan yapısal uyum programlan çerçevesinde yeni politikalar geliştirilmiştir. Politika değişimini belirleyen temel unsur temelde ithal ikameci politikalardan ihraç yönelimli politikalara geçiş olmuştur. Yapısal uyum politikaları ilk aşamada dar anlamda bir istikrar süreci ve ardından piyasalarda serbestleşmeyi, kurumsal reformları ve üretim faktörlerini ticarete konu olmayan sektörlerden ticarete konu olan sektörlere kaydırmayı içeren bir yapısal değişim süreci içerir. Yapısal uyum sürecinde emek piyasalarıyla ilgili açık bir program olmamakla beraber, yapısal uyum programlarının temel teorik çerçevesini oluşturan neoklasik iktisatta emek piyasasına atfedilen önemli bir rol vardır. Makroekonomik bir çerçevede, emek piyasasından beklenen işsizlikte artış olduğunda emek piyasasım tekrar dengeye getirmek için ücretleri aşağı doğru ayarlamaktır. Emek piyasasındaki düzenlemeler genellikle bu esnek uyum kapasitesinin önünde bir engel olarak görülmektedir. İstikrar uygulamalarının ilk anda istihdam ve gelir dağılımı üzerinde olumsuz etkileri olacağı kabul edilmekle beraber, aynı zamanda yapısal uyum politikalarının sonuçta istihdamı arttıracağı ve beraberinde yoksulluğu azaltacağı varsayılmaktadır. Bu beklentiler özellikle, Hecksher-Ohlin ve Stolper-Samuelson kuramlarına dayanan bir uluslararası ticaret modeli temelinde oluşturulmuştur. Bu çerçevede ihracatı özendiren bir dış ticaret rejiminin, karşılaştırmalı üstünlüklerinin emek yoğun sektörlerde olduğu iddia edilen gelişmekte olan ülkelerde istihdam artışı için bir potansiyel yaratması beklenmektedir. Reel ücretlerin de koruma oranlarındaki bir indirimin ardından, daha emek yoğun olan ihracat yönelimli sektörlerin göreli fiyatlarında bir artış gerçekleşeceği iddiasına dayanarak artması beklenmektedir. Daha yeni tartışmalarda, ticaret serbestleşmesinin, sermayenin sektörler arasında yer değiştirme hızındaki yavaşlığına bağlı olarak kısa vadede istihdam ve ücretleri azaltabileceği de kabul edilmektedir. Bununla beraber, emek piyasasında çarpıklıklar olmadığı sürece, uzun vadeli sonuçların emek lehine olacağı iddia edilmektedir. Bu bağlamda sendikalar veya asgari ücret düzenlemeleri emek piyasası çarpıklıkları olarak görülmektedir. Sermayenin kısa vadede sektörler arasında yer değiştirmesindeki yavaşlığa bağlı olarak düşen istihdama reel ücretlerin ilk anda azalarak uyum göstermesini sınırlandıracak bu tür çarpıklıkların olması durumunda, dış ticaret xvı serbestleşmesinin kısa vadede çözümü zor işsizlik problemlerine yol açabileceği iddia edilmektedir. Buna karşın, pek çok gelişmekte olan ülkede reel ücretlerdeki şiddetli azalmalar ve emek piyasasındaki ciddi düzensizleştirmeler göz önünde bulundurulduğunda, eldeki veriler emek piyasasmı katılık yaratmakla suçlamanın çok zor olduğunu göstermektedir. Yapısal uyum programlarının gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki sonuçlarıyla ilgili olarak var olan araştırmalar bu politikaların, özellikle gelir dağılımı ve emek piyasası açısından beklentileriyle ilgili olarak ciddi eksikliklere işaret etmektedir. Yapısal uyum politikalarının sonuçlarıyla ilgili genel bulgular düşük istihdam artış oranlarına neden olan darboğazların ekonominin birikim kalıbında aranması gerektiğini göstermektedir. Bu tartışma Türkiye için özellikle önemlidir. Türkiye yapısal uyum programı uygulamasına 1980'de başlamış ve o zamandan günümüze kadar dünya ekonomisine eklemlenme açısından önemli bir aşama kaydetmiştir. Fakat ülkenin istihdam ve gelir dağılımı açısından karnesi başarılı olmamıştır. Diğer gelişmekte olan ülkelerde olduğu gibi, Türkiye'de de düşük istihdam artışları emek piyasası katılılıklannm bir göstergesi olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Fakat, ekonominin yapısal özelliklerinin detaylı bir analizi, reel ücretlerin azalmasma rağmen istihdamdaki artış hızının düşük kalmasına yol açan başka faktörlerin varlığına işaret etmektedir. Bu çalışma 1980 sonrası dönemde yapısal uyum politikalarının uygulanmasının ardından Türkiye'de gelir dağılımı ve emek talebinde gerçekleşen değişimleri incelemektedir. Bu amaçla, öncelikle çalışmanın diğer bölümlerine geri plan oluşturması açısından, yapısal uyum dönemi boyunca Türk ekonomisindeki birikim ve büyüme kalıbı sorgulanmaktadır. Sanayideki büyüme ve birikim kalıbının özelliklerine ışık tutmak amacıyla, özel imalat sanayiinde yatırımların kârlılık ve talep bileşenlerine olan duyarlılığını incelemek için bir yatırım denklemi tahmin edilmektedir. îkinci olarak, emek talebin belirleyicilerine ve uluslararası ticaretin bu süreçteki etkilerine özel bir yer vererek emek piyasasındaki dinamikler incelenmektedir. Bu inceleme istihdamın büyüme muhasebesiyle analizinin yam sıra, emek talebi için tahmin edilen ekonometrik bir modeli de içermektedir. Üçüncü olarak, emek piyasasındaki esneklik derecesi, ve özellikle de reel ücretlerdeki esneklik derecesi, yapısal uyumun çeşitli dönemlerinde ücretlerin makroekonomik değişkenlere olan tepkisinin ekonometrik olarak tahmin edilmesi yoluyla incelenmektedir. Ücret belirleme mekanizmasının esneklik derecesi ile ilgili niceliksel ölçütler bulmak emek piyasasımn katılığı veya esnekliği ile ilgili tartışmalarda belirleyici olması açısından çok önemlidir. Dördüncü olarak, kârların ekonomideki önemli yapısal değişimlere tepkisini görmek için ücretlerle kârlar arasındaki ilişki incelenmektedir. Son olarak da ücretler arasındaki farklılıklar incelenmektedir. Bu sonuçlar Türkiye'de yapısal uyum sürecindeki gelir dağılımı dinamiklerine ışık tutmaktadır. Bu araştırmanın sonuçlan emek piyasası ve gelir dağılımıyla ilgili olarak yapısal uyum politikalarının temelini oluşturan neoklasik iddiaların geçerliliğini XV11 sorgulamak için ampirik bulgular sunmaktadır. Buradan hareketle bu çalışma emek piyasası ve gelir dağılımının incelenmesinde, birikim kalıbının ve güç ilişkilerinin büyüme ve dağılımı belirlemedeki etkisini birleştiren, neoklasik iktisat dışı bir senteze olan ihtiyaca işaret etmektedir. Bu çalışmanın en temel sonucu emek piyasasmda ve özellikle de reel ücretlerde istihdamın daha hızlı artmasını engelleyecek bir katılığın bulunmadığıdır. Düşük istihdam artış oranlanmn ve gelir dağılımında sürekli olarak ücretliler aleyhine gerçekleşen bozulmanın kaynağı Türk ekonomisinin yapısal sorunlarında aranmalıdır. Uluslararası ticaretin serbestleşmesi ne istihdamın büyüme oranında bir artışa ne de gelir dağılımda ücretliler lehine bir düzelmeye yol açmıştır. Tersine, reel ücretlerdeki ciddi boyutlara varan aşağı doğru esneklik uluslararası rekabetin yoğunlaştığı bir dönemde dahi yüksek kâr marjlarının korunmasında en temel rolü üstlenmiştir. Türk özel imalat sanayiinde ücret ve kârlar arasındaki karşıtlığın incelenmesi, bir reel ücret katılığından çok, kârlılıkta bir katılığın varlığım göstermektedir. Öte yandan, yüksek kârlılık beraberinde yüksek bir sınai yatırım oranım getirmemiştir. Türkiye imalat sanayiinde yatırımların katma değer içindeki payım arttırmak yerine, kapasite kullanım oranını arttırmaya dayalı bir sanayileşme kalıbına sıkışmıştır. Üretkenlikteki artışlar yüksek yatırım oranlarıyla desteklenmediği için uzun süreli olamamaktadır. Bu durum istihdamda yüksek ve istikrarlı bir büyümenin yam sıra, reel ücretlerde üretkenliğe dayalı bir artışı da engellemektedir. Sonuçlar, imalat sanayiinde ücretlerdeki bir azalmanın üretim ve istihdamda daha düşük bir büyümeyi beraberinde getirdiği, stagnasyonist bir büyüme rejiminin varlığım göstermektedir. Kâr marjlarmdaki katılık istihdam artış oranlan üzerinde de olumsuz etkiler yaratmıştır. Reel ücretler aşağı doğru ciddi bir esneklik göstermişse de, bu ya emek dışı birim maliyetlerdeki artışı dengelemek veya kâr marjlarım daha da arttırmak için kullanılmıştır. Kâr marjları katılık gösterdiği için, veya ticaret yönelimli sektörlerde dahi artma eğiliminde oldukları için, reel ücretlerin aşağı doğru esnekliği sektörün piyasa payının ve dolayısıyla üretiminin ciddi oranda artması için yeterli olmamıştır. Bu araştırma güç ilişkilerindeki dengenin Türkiye'de gelir dağılımını belirleyen temel etken olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu süreçte devlet de çok aktif bir rol oynamıştır, ve yapısal uyum dönemi boyunca bu müdahale esas olarak sermaye lehinde olmuştur. Emek talebinin incelenmesi ekonominin istihdam yaratma kapasitesi üzerinde iç talebin rolüyle ilgili olarak da çarpıcı bir sonuca işaret etmektedir. Ücretlerdeki azalma üretimdeki potansiyel büyümeyi sınırladığı oranda, reel ücretleri düşürmek yoluyla istihdamı arttırma imkanlarının sınırlı olduğu bulunmuştur. Yine, sektörlerin ihracat yöneliminin artması emek talebinde önemli değişikliklere yol açmamaktadır. Bu anlamda reel ücret azalması toplam talep üzerinde bir basınç yaratıyorsa ve bu boşluk da ihracatla kolayca kapatılamıyorsa, ücret düşüşlerinin yeterli sayıda yeni iş imkanı yaratması beklenemez. İhracatın istihdamın büyüme XV111 hızını güçlendirmedeki yetersizliği göz önüne alındığında, iç talep ekonominin istihdam yaratma kapasitesini arttırmak için kilit etken olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. Özellikle ekonominin genelindeki değişimlerin motoru olan imalat sanayiinde yatırım ve üretkenlik artışı sağlayacak politikalarla, üretim ve istihdamı hareketlendirecek bir stratejiye ihtiyaç vardır. Fakat temel itici güç olarak kâr oranına dayanarak kaynak dağılımında ciddi bir hareketlenme ummak, pek çok gelişmekte olan ülkenin yatırmışız kârlarla ilgili deneyimi göz önünde bulundurulduğunda, çok rasyonel görünmemektedir. Kâr oranının ekonomiyi düzenlemesini beklemek sadece daha çok eşitsizlik getirmektedir. Üretimin, ve özel olarak da iç talebin hem emek talebini hem de yatırımları arttırmadaki önemi, eşitlik düşüncesini geride bırakmaksızın ekonominin istihdam yaratma kapasitesini ve büyüme potansiyelim arttırabilmek açısından önemli politika önerilerine işaret etmektedir. Bu ancak sistematik bir yatırım programıyla olanaklıdır. Bu süreçte devletin de önemli bir rolü bulunmaktadır. Yapısal uyum politikalarının önerdiği gibi devleti küçültmek yerine, devletin rolünü yeniden tanımlamaya ihtiyaç vardır. Üretkenlik düzeyi yüksek, nitelik yoğun sektörlere doğru bir yeniden yapılanma rekabet gücünü arttırmak için düşük ücretlere ve sosyal hakların törpülenmesine bağımlı kalmaya son verecektir. Ortodoks yapısal uyum bakış açısı, emek piyasası düzenlemelerini segmentasyon ve enformalleşmenin nedenleri olarak algılamaktadır. Bu bakış açısının ekonominin istihdam yaratma kapasitesini arttırmak için tek önerisi düzenlemelerin ortadan kaldırılmasıdır. Fakat bu politikaların istihdam ve gelir dağılımı açısından gösterdiği zayıf performans, piyasa güçlerinin ve kâr oranının ekonomideki ana itici güç olmasına dayanan bir yapısal uyum modeline değil, eşitlikçi bir uyum modeline ihtiyaç olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu açıdan hem emeğin nitelik düzeyini güçlendirecek politikalara, hem de uzun süredir marjinalleştirilmiş kesimleri hedef alacak aktif emek piyasası politikalarına ihtiyaç vardır. Fiziki yatırımların yam sıra, planlı bir müdahalenin ve devletin rolü bu alanda da kritik önemdedir.
In developing countries, from late 1970s and early 1980s onwards a new set of policies was defined for development within the structural adjustment programs, which were formulated mainly by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The policy reversal was basically determined by a shift from import substitution to export orientation. The structural adjustment programs include an initial stabilization process in the narrow sense and a structural change process including market liberalization, institutional reform, and attempts to reallocate factors of production, capital and labor from the non-tradable sectors to the tradables. Although there is not an explicit program for adjustment in the labor markets during the process of structural adjustment, there is an important role attached to the labor market within the framework of neoclassical economics, which constitute the basic theoretical framework of structural adjustment programs. Within a macroeconomic context, what is expected from labor market is to adjust wages downwards in case of increasing unemployment, in order to bring the labor market back to equilibrium. The regulatory restrictions are usually seen as an obstacle for this flexible adjustment capacity. In spite of the acceptance that stabilization measures will have adverse effects on employment and income distribution in the first instance, it has also been assumed that structural adjustment policies will in the end lead to increased employment and consequently will reduce poverty. These expectations are especially based on an international trade model, which rely on Hecksher-Ohlin and Stolper-Samuelson theorems. In this context the shift to an export promoting trade regime is expected to create a potential for an increase in employment in developing countries, which are argued to have their comparative advantage in labor intensive sectors. Real wages are also expected to increase after a reduction in the rates of protection, which is argued to result in an increase in the relative price of the relatively more labor intensive export-oriented goods. In more recent discussions, it is also accepted that trade liberalization can lower employment and real wages in the short run due to the slow pace of the reallocation of capital between sectors. Nevertheless, it is argued that the long run implications will be in favour of labor, unless there are labor market distortions. In this respect, trade unions or minimum wage legislation are seen as distortions. It is argued that in the presence of such distortions, which limit the initial downward adjustment of real wages to the decline in employment in the xu short run due to the slow pace of the reallocation of capital between sectors, trade liberalization policies may generate non-trivial short run unemployment problems. However, evidence shows that it is very hard to accuse labor market by creating rigidity, given the drastic declines in real wages and the significant deregulation in the labor market in many developing countries. Existing research on the results of structural adjustment programs in developing countries point out at serious deficiencies regarding the expectations of these policies, particularly in terms of income distribution and employment outcomes. The stylised facts about the outcomes of structural adjustment policies show that the bottlenecks causing low growth rates in employment have to be searched within the accumulation pattern of the economy. This debate is particularly important for Turkey. Turkey has started the implementation of a structural adjustment program in 1980 and has made a significant progress in integrating to the world economy since then. However, the record of the country in terms of employment and income distribution has not been successful. Similar to the other developing countries, in Turkey low rates of employment increases are being shown as evidence of labor market rigidities. However, a detailed analysis of the structural properties of the economy points out at the existence of other factors, which have led to lower growth rates in employment in spite of the decreases in real wages. This study analyses the changes in the demand for labor and the distribution of income in Turkey after the implementation of structural adjustment policies in the post-1980 period. In this respect, first the pattern of accumulation and growth in the Turkish economy during the structural adjustment episode is questioned in order to form a background to the rest of the analysis. An investment equation is estimated to analyze the response of investments to profitability and the demand components in private manufacturing industry, in order shed light on the characteristics of the industrial growth and accumulation pattern. Secondly, based on this background, the labor market dynamics is analysed with a particular emphasis on the determinants of the demand for labor, and the impact of international trade on this process. This analysis also includes an econometric model for labor demand as well as a growth accounting analysis for employment. Thirdly, the degree of flexibility of the labor market, and especially of real wages is analysed by means of an econometric estimation of the response of wages to macroeconomic variables in different periods of structural adjustment. Finding quantitative measures of the degree of flexibility of the wage setting mechanism is significant in determining the result of the debate about the flexibility or the rigidity of the labor market. Fourthly, the trade-off between wages and profits is analysed in order to find out the response of profits to major structural changes in the economy. Finally the developments in wage differentials are discussed. These results shed light on the dynamics of income distribution during the structural adjustment episode in Turkey. xiu The findings of this research provide the empirical evidence to question the validity of the neoclassical arguments related with the analysis of labor market and income distribution, which constitute the theoretical basis of the expectations of the structural adjustment policies in these fields. This analysis in turn points out at the need for a non-neoclassical synthesis in the analysis of labor market and income distribution, combining the impact of power relations and the pattern of accumulation in determining growth and distribution. The main result of this study is that there is not rigidity in the labor market and specifically in real wages, which prevents a stronger growth performance in employment. The source of the low growth rates in employment and the systematic deterioration in income distribution at the expense of wage earners must be searched within the structural problems of the Turkish economy. The liberalization of international trade has neither resulted in an increase in the growth rate of employment, nor led to a recovery in the distribution of income in favour of wage earners. On the contrary, a significant degree of downward flexibility in real wages has played the major role in the maintenance of high profit margins even in a period of increased intensity in international competition. The analysis of the trade-off between wages and profits in Turkish private manufacturing industry shows the existence of a profit rigidity, rather than real wage rigidity. Nevertheless, a high share of profits in national income has not necessarily led to a high rate of industrial investment. Turkey is trapped in a pattern of industrialisation, which is based on increasing the rate of capacity utilisation, rather than increasing the ratio of investments to value added in the manufacturing sector. Since the improvements in productivity are not supported by high investment rates, they are not long lasting. This in turn prevents a high and stable growth rate in employment, as well as a productivity-led growth in real wages. The results show that there is a stagnationist regime of growth in manufacturing industry, such that a decline in wages leads to lower growth rates in output and employment. The rigidity in the profit margins has had negative effects on employment growth rates as well. Even if real-wages have shown a massive downward flexibility, this has been used either to balance the rise in non-labor unit costs or to increase the level of mark-up rates. Since profit margins are rigid, or are following an upward trend even in trade oriented sectors, downward flexibility of the real wages has not been enough to significantly increase the market share and consequently output of the sector. This research shows that the balance of power relations are the main factor in determining the distribution of income in Turkey. The state has also played a very active role in this process, and this intervention has been mainly a pro-capital intervention during the structural adjustment period. The analysis of the demand for labor also points out at a striking result regarding the role of domestic demand on the employment creation capacity of the economy. It is found that the opportunity to increase employment by means of declining real wage rates is limited, if wage declines limit the potential increase in output. xiv Moreover, the increase in export orientation of the sectors does not lead to significant changes in the demand for labor. In this sense lower wages can not be expected to create sufficient new jobs, if this leads to a deficiency in aggregate demand at a sectoral level, and this gap can not be easily closed by exports. Given the insufficiency of exports in enhancing the growth rates in employment, domestic demand comes out as the key factor in enhancing the employment creation capacity of the economy. There is need for a strategy for stimulating output and employment based on policies to increase investment and productivity particularly in manufacturing industry, which is the engine of changes in the rest of the economy. However, expecting a significant mobilisation and restructuring in resource allocation based on the profit rate as the main driving force does not seem very rational, given the experience of many developing countries with high profit shares without investments. Waiting for the profit rate to regulate the economy has brought only higher inequality. The importance of output, and particularly domestic demand in motivating both labor demand and investments suggest significant policy implications in order to enhance the employment creation capacity and growth potential of the economy without leaving the equity aspect behind. This can only be achieved through a systematic investment program. The state also has an important role to play in this process. Rather than decreasing the role of the state as is proposed by structural adjustment policies, there is need for redefining its role. A restructuring in favour of more skill-intensive sectors with higher productivity levels can put an end to the dependence on low wages and deterioration in social rights for competitiveness. The orthodox view of structural adjustment perceives labor market regulations as reasons of segmentation and informalization, and the only proposal they make is the dismantling of such regulations in order to enhance the employment creation capacity of the economy. Nevertheless the poor performance of these policies in terms of both employment and income distribution shows that there is a need for a more egalitarian view of adjustment, rather than one based on market forces and the profit rate as the main driving force in the economy. In this sense there is need for both policies targeting to enhance the skill level of the labor force and for active labor market policies directed towards those people, who have been marginalised for a long time. Apart from the field of physical investments, the role of a planned intervention and the role of the state are also critical in this field.
In developing countries, from late 1970s and early 1980s onwards a new set of policies was defined for development within the structural adjustment programs, which were formulated mainly by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The policy reversal was basically determined by a shift from import substitution to export orientation. The structural adjustment programs include an initial stabilization process in the narrow sense and a structural change process including market liberalization, institutional reform, and attempts to reallocate factors of production, capital and labor from the non-tradable sectors to the tradables. Although there is not an explicit program for adjustment in the labor markets during the process of structural adjustment, there is an important role attached to the labor market within the framework of neoclassical economics, which constitute the basic theoretical framework of structural adjustment programs. Within a macroeconomic context, what is expected from labor market is to adjust wages downwards in case of increasing unemployment, in order to bring the labor market back to equilibrium. The regulatory restrictions are usually seen as an obstacle for this flexible adjustment capacity. In spite of the acceptance that stabilization measures will have adverse effects on employment and income distribution in the first instance, it has also been assumed that structural adjustment policies will in the end lead to increased employment and consequently will reduce poverty. These expectations are especially based on an international trade model, which rely on Hecksher-Ohlin and Stolper-Samuelson theorems. In this context the shift to an export promoting trade regime is expected to create a potential for an increase in employment in developing countries, which are argued to have their comparative advantage in labor intensive sectors. Real wages are also expected to increase after a reduction in the rates of protection, which is argued to result in an increase in the relative price of the relatively more labor intensive export-oriented goods. In more recent discussions, it is also accepted that trade liberalization can lower employment and real wages in the short run due to the slow pace of the reallocation of capital between sectors. Nevertheless, it is argued that the long run implications will be in favour of labor, unless there are labor market distortions. In this respect, trade unions or minimum wage legislation are seen as distortions. It is argued that in the presence of such distortions, which limit the initial downward adjustment of real wages to the decline in employment in the xu short run due to the slow pace of the reallocation of capital between sectors, trade liberalization policies may generate non-trivial short run unemployment problems. However, evidence shows that it is very hard to accuse labor market by creating rigidity, given the drastic declines in real wages and the significant deregulation in the labor market in many developing countries. Existing research on the results of structural adjustment programs in developing countries point out at serious deficiencies regarding the expectations of these policies, particularly in terms of income distribution and employment outcomes. The stylised facts about the outcomes of structural adjustment policies show that the bottlenecks causing low growth rates in employment have to be searched within the accumulation pattern of the economy. This debate is particularly important for Turkey. Turkey has started the implementation of a structural adjustment program in 1980 and has made a significant progress in integrating to the world economy since then. However, the record of the country in terms of employment and income distribution has not been successful. Similar to the other developing countries, in Turkey low rates of employment increases are being shown as evidence of labor market rigidities. However, a detailed analysis of the structural properties of the economy points out at the existence of other factors, which have led to lower growth rates in employment in spite of the decreases in real wages. This study analyses the changes in the demand for labor and the distribution of income in Turkey after the implementation of structural adjustment policies in the post-1980 period. In this respect, first the pattern of accumulation and growth in the Turkish economy during the structural adjustment episode is questioned in order to form a background to the rest of the analysis. An investment equation is estimated to analyze the response of investments to profitability and the demand components in private manufacturing industry, in order shed light on the characteristics of the industrial growth and accumulation pattern. Secondly, based on this background, the labor market dynamics is analysed with a particular emphasis on the determinants of the demand for labor, and the impact of international trade on this process. This analysis also includes an econometric model for labor demand as well as a growth accounting analysis for employment. Thirdly, the degree of flexibility of the labor market, and especially of real wages is analysed by means of an econometric estimation of the response of wages to macroeconomic variables in different periods of structural adjustment. Finding quantitative measures of the degree of flexibility of the wage setting mechanism is significant in determining the result of the debate about the flexibility or the rigidity of the labor market. Fourthly, the trade-off between wages and profits is analysed in order to find out the response of profits to major structural changes in the economy. Finally the developments in wage differentials are discussed. These results shed light on the dynamics of income distribution during the structural adjustment episode in Turkey. xiu The findings of this research provide the empirical evidence to question the validity of the neoclassical arguments related with the analysis of labor market and income distribution, which constitute the theoretical basis of the expectations of the structural adjustment policies in these fields. This analysis in turn points out at the need for a non-neoclassical synthesis in the analysis of labor market and income distribution, combining the impact of power relations and the pattern of accumulation in determining growth and distribution. The main result of this study is that there is not rigidity in the labor market and specifically in real wages, which prevents a stronger growth performance in employment. The source of the low growth rates in employment and the systematic deterioration in income distribution at the expense of wage earners must be searched within the structural problems of the Turkish economy. The liberalization of international trade has neither resulted in an increase in the growth rate of employment, nor led to a recovery in the distribution of income in favour of wage earners. On the contrary, a significant degree of downward flexibility in real wages has played the major role in the maintenance of high profit margins even in a period of increased intensity in international competition. The analysis of the trade-off between wages and profits in Turkish private manufacturing industry shows the existence of a profit rigidity, rather than real wage rigidity. Nevertheless, a high share of profits in national income has not necessarily led to a high rate of industrial investment. Turkey is trapped in a pattern of industrialisation, which is based on increasing the rate of capacity utilisation, rather than increasing the ratio of investments to value added in the manufacturing sector. Since the improvements in productivity are not supported by high investment rates, they are not long lasting. This in turn prevents a high and stable growth rate in employment, as well as a productivity-led growth in real wages. The results show that there is a stagnationist regime of growth in manufacturing industry, such that a decline in wages leads to lower growth rates in output and employment. The rigidity in the profit margins has had negative effects on employment growth rates as well. Even if real-wages have shown a massive downward flexibility, this has been used either to balance the rise in non-labor unit costs or to increase the level of mark-up rates. Since profit margins are rigid, or are following an upward trend even in trade oriented sectors, downward flexibility of the real wages has not been enough to significantly increase the market share and consequently output of the sector. This research shows that the balance of power relations are the main factor in determining the distribution of income in Turkey. The state has also played a very active role in this process, and this intervention has been mainly a pro-capital intervention during the structural adjustment period. The analysis of the demand for labor also points out at a striking result regarding the role of domestic demand on the employment creation capacity of the economy. It is found that the opportunity to increase employment by means of declining real wage rates is limited, if wage declines limit the potential increase in output. xiv Moreover, the increase in export orientation of the sectors does not lead to significant changes in the demand for labor. In this sense lower wages can not be expected to create sufficient new jobs, if this leads to a deficiency in aggregate demand at a sectoral level, and this gap can not be easily closed by exports. Given the insufficiency of exports in enhancing the growth rates in employment, domestic demand comes out as the key factor in enhancing the employment creation capacity of the economy. There is need for a strategy for stimulating output and employment based on policies to increase investment and productivity particularly in manufacturing industry, which is the engine of changes in the rest of the economy. However, expecting a significant mobilisation and restructuring in resource allocation based on the profit rate as the main driving force does not seem very rational, given the experience of many developing countries with high profit shares without investments. Waiting for the profit rate to regulate the economy has brought only higher inequality. The importance of output, and particularly domestic demand in motivating both labor demand and investments suggest significant policy implications in order to enhance the employment creation capacity and growth potential of the economy without leaving the equity aspect behind. This can only be achieved through a systematic investment program. The state also has an important role to play in this process. Rather than decreasing the role of the state as is proposed by structural adjustment policies, there is need for redefining its role. A restructuring in favour of more skill-intensive sectors with higher productivity levels can put an end to the dependence on low wages and deterioration in social rights for competitiveness. The orthodox view of structural adjustment perceives labor market regulations as reasons of segmentation and informalization, and the only proposal they make is the dismantling of such regulations in order to enhance the employment creation capacity of the economy. Nevertheless the poor performance of these policies in terms of both employment and income distribution shows that there is a need for a more egalitarian view of adjustment, rather than one based on market forces and the profit rate as the main driving force in the economy. In this sense there is need for both policies targeting to enhance the skill level of the labor force and for active labor market policies directed towards those people, who have been marginalised for a long time. Apart from the field of physical investments, the role of a planned intervention and the role of the state are also critical in this field.
Açıklama
Tez (Doktora) -- İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, 1999
Thesis (Ph.D.) -- İstanbul Technical University, Institute of Social Sciences, 1999
Thesis (Ph.D.) -- İstanbul Technical University, Institute of Social Sciences, 1999
Anahtar kelimeler
Gelir dağılımı,
Türkiye,
Uyum,
Yapısal uyum programları,
İş gücü piyasası,
Income distribution,
Turkey,
Adjustment,
Structural adjustment programs,
Labour market