Ticari Firmaların Kredi Derecelendirmesi : İMKB Firmalarına Uygulanması

Abstract

Credit analysis is a study aims to give the credit suitable for the bank policy and take it back without any problem. Credit rating of a company is determined after credit analysis which compose of two parts; financial analysis and non- financial analysis. The non-financial analysis, which is a part of credit analysis is compose of morality, management structure analysis, group companies analysis, activity analysis, relations with other creditors and banks, competitive advantage analysis, risk analysis. On the other hand, financial analysis contains the interpreting process of the financial tables. By the help of the interpretation, it is possible to see the financial structure of the company and positive or negative development of the structure during the analyzed period. There are different methods of financial analysis, where most common method is ratio analysis which lets the analyst to interpret the financial tables by the help of mathematical relations between the items of financial tables. The results of financial analysis mostly depend on the interpretation of the analyst and can differ from one analyst to other. Because of that reason, financial analysis is a subjective study. Because of the Turkish accounting system, it is possible to account some of the transactions to the financial tables at different ways. Interest expenses item is a good example for these different applications. The interest paid to the bank loans can be accounted as interest expense at income statement or as inventory at balance sheet if the loans are used to finance the inventory. Like the example of interest expenses, these different entries of the transactions cause the interpretation of the financial analysis differ for each case. On the other hand, the management of the company can use these possibilities to make up the financial tables to increase their credit capacity. To interpret the tables correctly, these kind of balance sheet make up transactions should be cleaned and corrected. Xlll A few Turkish banks and some banks and credit rating companies at other countries use rarely credit scoring models at credit analysis studies. By the help of these credit scoring models, the credibility of a company is determined by objective criteria unlike the subjective classical credit analysis studies. This thesis study, offers a scoring model for the financial analysis of a company, as part of the credit analysis. The financial rating and credit score is determined depending on five financial criteria. These criteria are growth, liquidity, leverage, working capital management and profitability. All these five criteria are - -analyzed-and-scored by two different analysis, which are trend analysis and industry analysis. Trend analysis is the comparison of the related ratios with the previous year where industry analysis is the comparison of the ratios with the industry ratios. To score the real financial structure of the company, the balance sheet make up is cleaned at the scoring model. The offered scoring model is applied to 117 companies coated at Istanbul Stock Exchange Market (İSEM), between years 1993 - 2002. Then the credit scores are compared with the real credibility of the companies. The İSEM news are used to check the consistency between the results of the model and real life financial structure.