Prognostic reserve estimation for potential reservoirs where geochemical methods proven the hydrocarbon presence by Monte Carlo simulation: Case studies from Turkiye

Abstract

The aim of this thesis is to calculate the prognostic reserve in areas where drilling and production have not been done before. A literature review of more than 100 wells and reservoir rocks around the world shows that the known values for the volumetric method of calculating reserves in sites with the same reservoir rock range only between two minimum and maximum values. Sometimes, even though these figures are very different from each other, they show that sites with the same reservoir rock are worth around 80%. Reservoir rocks collected from the open source literature around the world for the thesis study are divided into two separate classes as siliciclastic and carbonates. Studies show that most of the porosity, reservoir thickness and hydrocarbon saturation values collected for siliciclastic and carbonate rocks are similar values. For this reason, in this study, the same rocks (siliciclastic and carbonate) from the literature were obtained from the literature, using only potential reservoir rock types (siliciclastic and carbonate) and potential reservoir area, without using any laboratory or production data in 7 potential hydrocarbon reservoir areas in Turkey where drilling has not been done before. The underground prognostic reserve volume was calculated using computer simulation with the help of the values collected for As a result of this research, which was carried out by using Monte Carlo Simulation and a comprehensive literature review in 7 different areas in Turkey, 3 very small gas resources, 1 small gas resource and 3 super giant oil resources with 90% probability; 50% probability 1 medium, 2 small, 1 very small gas and 3 super giant oil resources; and finally, it has been determined that 1 large, 2 medium, 1 very small gas resources and 3 super giant oil resources can be found with 10% probability.