Fog analysis for Antalya International Airport

Abstract

Fog represents one of the most challenging meteorological phenomena affecting air transportation, exerting considerable influence on flight safety, operational efficiency, and overall passenger experience. Reduced visibility during fog events can lead to flight delays, cancellations, diversions, and, in extreme cases, serious accidents. The resulting financial losses for airlines, coupled with the inconveniences and time delays imposed on passengers, highlight the critical importance of understanding and managing fog occurrences at airports. Although coastal regions often experience frequent and dense fog, Antalya International Airport, situated on the Mediterranean coast of Türkiye, presents a notable deviation from this pattern. The rarity of fog events at this seaside location offers a unique opportunity to investigate the underlying meteorological and microclimatic dynamics that influence fog formation. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of fog events recorded at Antalya International Airport between 2001 and 2022. Utilizing a rich dataset derived from Aviation Routine Weather Reports (METAR) and Aviation Selected Special Weather Reports (SPECI), this study examines the frequency, timing, and characteristics of fog occurrences on annual, seasonal, monthly, and hourly scales. Special attention is given to visibility trends and the interplay between regional climatic conditions, particularly wind speed and direction, temperature, and humidity patterns, that collectively govern the onset and dissipation of fog. The results reveal that despite Antalya's coastal setting, the number of fog events is remarkably low, totaling only 11 occurrences over the 22-year study period. Seasonal analysis indicates that fog is most frequently observed in the spring season, with the highest concentrations recorded in April. Furthermore, fog typically forms during the early morning hours, often between midnight and 5 AM, when radiative cooling leads to surface temperature declines and heightened relative humidity levels conducive to condensation. These findings correlate with established meteorological principles that link nocturnal cooling and reduced turbulence to increased fog likelihood. An in-depth examination of visibility conditions during fog events shows that while visibility commonly falls below 1,000 meters, a substantial proportion of fog occurrences maintain visibility levels around 800 meters, allowing the continued use of Instrument Landing Systems (ILS). This moderate reduction in visibility helps mitigate some operational challenges, though flight delays and route adjustments may still be necessary. Wind rose analyses further indicate that fog events are strongly associated with weak northerly winds at speeds generally below 4 m/s. Such calm atmospheric conditions hinder the dispersion of moisture-laden air near the surface, favoring fog formation. By focusing on the unusual infrequency of fog at Antalya International Airport, this research offers valuable insights into the local microclimatic conditions that shape fog dynamics. The interplay between coastal geography, prevailing wind patterns, and the thermal properties of land and sea surfaces emerges as a key driver of the observed patterns. Understanding these factors is essential for air traffic management, as improved forecasting and operational planning can enhance flight safety, reduce delays, and lower economic costs. In conclusion, this study provides a detailed characterization of fog phenomena at Antalya International Airport, illustrating the importance of site-specific meteorological analyses. The findings contribute to the broader knowledge base on fog formation and dispersion processes, potentially guiding the development of more effective operational strategies and advanced forecasting tools at Antalya and other airports with similarly distinctive climatic conditions.