Integrated GBR–NSGA-II Optimization Framework for Sustainable Utilization of Steel Slag in Road Base Layers

Abstract

This study proposes an integrated, machine learning-based multi-objective optimization framework to evaluate and optimize the utilization of steel slag in road base layers, simultaneously addressing economic costs and environmental impacts. A comprehensive dataset of 482 scenarios was engineered based on literature-informed parameters, encompassing transport distance, processing energy intensity, initial moisture content, gradation adjustments, and regional electricity emission factors. Four advanced tree-based ensemble regression algorithms—Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Extremely Randomized Trees (ERTs), Gradient Boosted Regressor (GBR), and Extreme Gradient Boosting Regressor (XGBR)—were rigorously evaluated. Among these, GBR demonstrated superior predictive performance (R2 > 0.95, RMSE < 7.5), effectively capturing complex nonlinear interactions inherent in slag processing and logistics operations. Feature importance analysis via SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretative insights, highlighting transport distance and energy intensity as dominant factors affecting unit cost, while moisture content and grid emission factor predominantly influenced CO2 emissions. Subsequently, the Gradient Boosted Regressor model was integrated into a Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) framework to explore optimal trade-offs between cost and emissions. The resulting Pareto front revealed a diverse solution space, with significant nonlinear trade-offs between economic efficiency and environmental performance, clearly identifying strategic inflection points. To facilitate actionable decision-making, the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method was applied, identifying an optimal balanced solution characterized by a transport distance of 47 km, energy intensity of 1.21 kWh/ton, moisture content of 6.2%, moderate gradation adjustment, and a grid CO2 factor of 0.47 kg CO2/kWh. This scenario offered a substantial reduction (45%) in CO2 emissions relative to cost-minimized solutions, with a moderate increase (33%) in total cost, presenting a realistic and balanced pathway for sustainable infrastructure practices. Overall, this study introduces a robust, scalable, and interpretable optimization framework, providing valuable methodological advancements for sustainable decision making in infrastructure planning and circular economy initiatives.