Long-Term Statistical Analysis of Hail Events and ERA5-Based Convective Environments Across Türkiye

Abstract

Abstract This study is the first comprehensive analysis of hail events in Türkiye over a long-term period, utilizing high spatial (0.25° × 0.25°) and temporal resolution (hourly) data to examine the convective environment in which these events occur. Information on hail events across Türkiye for the 23-year period from 2001 to 2023 was obtained from the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD). Subsequently, duplicate events were removed from the 3860 reports classified according to Quality Control (QC) categories, resulting in 874 unique hail events. To understand the atmospheric conditions and convective environment in which hail events occurred, proximity soundings were created for each event, considering the spatial and temporal resolutions of the events. A total of 21 convective parameters were calculated for each hail event, and detailed analyses were conducted for different hail sizes (ranging from 2 to 8 cm). The prominent findings of the study are as follows: The months of May and June, when atmospheric instability peaks, showed a 2–3 times higher frequency of hail events compared to other months. Although hail events occurred almost every hour of the day, high frequencies were particularly observed between 1100 and 1600 UTC. The Central Anatolia Region and Mediterranean Region had the highest frequency of hail events (21% each) among geographical regions. The convective parameters that best reflected the convective environment of hail events were Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy (MUCAPE), Most Unstable Convective Inhibition (MUCIN), Maximum Updraft Speed for the MU Parcel (WMAX), Most Unstable WMAXSHR, and Most Unstable Lifting Condensation Level (MUEL). While hail sizes varied between 2 and 8 cm across all events, correlations were found between increasing hail sizes and convective parameters .