Critical Drought Analysis: Case Study of Göksu River (Turkey) and North Atlantic Oscillation Influences

Abstract

Droughts are complex events which may impair social, economic, agricultural, and other activities of a society. The present hydroclimatological study comprises three stages. First, a Markov chain model based on annual flows at a gauging station located on the Goksu River (Turkey) is utilized. Second, a critical drought analysis is conducted. Third, the influences of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of critical droughts have been documented. Drought duration is used as a key parameter in the Markov chain model. As the model degree should be defined prior to applying a Markov chain model to a series of observations, a model degree of first order has been selected according to the results of the Akaike information criteria and Bayesian information criteria. The exact PDFs of the critical drought duration in a finite sample that follows the first-order Markov chain have been determined by the enumeration technique. The critical drought duration is the possi...