How to manage tourism development based on impacts of climate change in Turkiye?

Abstract

This paper aims to assess the impacts of climatic shifts caused by climate change on tourism destinations and provide a strategic roadmap to manage tourism development and investments in Turkiye. To assess the climate change impacts on the tourism sector, we focus on spatial variations in climate change, model the changing suitability of climatic conditions on tourism activities in different regions of Turkiye and estimate future climate conditions by considering climate scenarios. The Tourism Climate Index (TCI) is adopted to compare the suitability of the climate for tourism activities during the base years (1963-2017) and the projected years (2040-2069). In applying current and estimated climatic data, the case study destinations are assembled into three groups based on magnitude and direction of change, namely, alarming, moderate, and advantageous destinations. To provide a strategic roadmap, a matrix is developed regarding the number of international tourists, the number of accommodation facilities, tourism type and TCI results. As a result, nine zones are defined to represent the risks and potentials of the destinations, their priority levels in future tourism development are determined, and recommendations for each zone are formulated. Istanbul and Antalya excel with their high demand, advanced infrastructure and potential for an extended tourism season, while Nevsehir, Ankara, and Konya stand out as alternative destinations. On the other hand, Izmir and Mugla stand out with their high risk and high demand. The significance of this study lies in adaptions of climatic shifts to a tourism development roadmap. The results are critical for formulation of strategic tourism development plans from the local to the national levels for sustaining viability of the tourism market.