Multi-dimensional optimization of nuclear emergency shelters: balancing capacity, evacuation efficiency, and supply accessibility

Abstract

Effective shelter location-allocation is critical in nuclear emergencies to ensure rapid, safe evacuation and resource access for affected populations. This study presents a multi-dimensional optimization model for shelter allocation within humanitarian logistics, balancing evacuation time, supply accessibility, and shelter capacity. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the model optimizes trade-offs among competing objectives. The first objective minimizes evacuation time, the second ensures adequate supply access, and the third prevents shelter overcrowding. Validated through k-fold cross-validation, the model reveals spatial biases: evacuees often cluster in nearby shelters, leading to overcrowding in dense areas and underuse in others. This analysis suggests adding flexible shelters in high-density zones to enhance response efficiency. Overall, the research supports more balanced shelter allocations in nuclear emergencies, improving both immediate and long-term disaster response strategies for affected populations