Early Perspectives: Exploring the Potential Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles Through the Lens of Urban Mobility and Urban Form

Abstract

The emergence of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is expected to significantly reshape urban mobility and travel behavior patterns. AVs have the potential to offer higher levels of convenience, safety, and accessibility while enabling users to spend their trip time on more efficient and productive tasks such as working or even relaxing. This transformation in the short- to mid-term could result in changes in the public's sensitivity and perception toward enduring longer travel times and consequently, in mid- to long-term, it could influence the willingness to reconsider their residential locations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to enhance the understanding of the potential effects of AVs on travel behavior and land use through the examination of stated preference queries. To achieve this objective, various multinomial logit models toward AVs adoption and residential relocation were estimated by employing a dataset from Istanbul, Türkiye, as an example of megacity in a developing country. While the study findings revealed a set of potential adoption barriers for AVs, they also indicated a notable propensity for adopting these vehicles. Furthermore, concerning individuals' willingness to reconsider their residential locations due to the emergence of AVs, a considerable positive attitude was evident, albeit guarded. This attitude suggests that individuals' decisions are still evolving and can be guided toward the desired future through well-timed and well-suited policies. The outcomes of the study can serve as valuable input for policymakers as well as transportation and urban planners, offering insights into the potential impacts of AVs on urban mobility and form.