Market-Clearing Price Forecasting Using Keras in Turkish Day-Ahead Electricity Market

Abstract

The market-clearing price determined in the electricity market is of great importance for the market players trading in electricity. The market-clearing price constitutes the core of the buying and selling transactions in the electricity market. Knowing what the price of the product, service or commodity to be bought and / or sold would be, provides a great competitive advantage to the relevant party over the person or organization carrying out the relevant commercial activity. It is important to successfully predict the market-clearing price in the market in order to set strategy and game plan and implement risk management. For this purpose, in this study, a model using only publicly available input data on Keras, a deep learning library, is used to predict hourly market-clearing price in Turkish Day-Ahead Electricity Market. Despite the high economic and financial uncertainty and price fluctuations in 2021, the proposed model showed a high performance with a MAPE value of 2.5% and it is clear that the model is successful and applicable in real market conditions.