The effects of technological developments in transportation vehicles on air pollution mitigation of metropolitan cities: A case study of Istanbul

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of transportation vehicles on air pollution emissions in Istanbul, a metropolitan city in Türkiye. The TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) Model has been used to determine the current level of air pollutants coming from the transportation sector, make future estimates, and assess the impact of various scenarios on air pollution emissions. Air pollutants such as carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, particulate matter, and non-methane volatile organic compounds are included in the model. The amount of air pollution emissions discussed in this research were 74, 68, 13, 5, and 2 kt for NOx, CO, VOC, SO2, and PM, respectively, in the base year of 2016. In 2055, these emissions have shifted to 190, 98, 26, 8, and 5 kt, respectively. This means that emissions are predicted to increase between 1.4 and 2.6 times. According to model results, individual measures could decrease potential air pollution emissions for 2055 by up to 13 %. When all of the actions done within the pollutants of the study are combined, the total amount of emissions has decreased by 30.2 %, 24.3 %, 18.8 %, 5.3 % and 21.4 % for NOx, CO, VOC, SO2, and PM, respectively. This research emphasizes how critical it is to address metropolitan areas' transportation-related air pollution. The number of such studies dealing with air pollution parameters using the TIMES Model is very few, and it is expected that this study will create important outputs for similar studies.