İktisat Lisansüstü Programı - Doktora
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ÖgeThe impact of economic and financial shocks on macroeconomic fundamentals: Multi country new Keynesian approach(Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, 2020) Güngör, Mahmut Sami ; Güloğlu, Bülent ; 671998 ; İktisatThis dissertation examines the impact of various economic and financial shocks on macroeconomic fundamentals with the help of a multi country modeling approach for the post 1990 era. Its theoretical framework is entirely based on the new Keynesian synthesis. In the first empirical section, I estimate two distinct versions of the three equation new Keynesian model by using the Bayesian techniques to investigate the impact of structural shocks on macroeconomic fundamentals under aggressive monetary policy in Turkey for the period from 2000Q1 to 2019Q1. The practical role of this chapter is to introduce the basic new Keynesian model which forms the fundamental structure of modern macroeconomic models. In the second empirical section, a single country framework is extended to a multi country one to investigate transmission of shocks across economies. First, I define the major trading partners of Turkey to construct a new globe for the multi country new Keynesian analysis. Next, I estimate the global VAR model for the period from 1990Q1 to 2018Q4 in order to obtain steady state values for all variables used in the multi country analysis. Then, I estimate the multi country new Keynesian model for the member countries of the new globe by using the inequality constrained instrumental variables estimator for the period from 1990Q3 to 2018Q4. Finally, a number of plausible economic and financial scenarios are discussed by using both point and bootstrap estimates of impulse responses of related shocks in the dynamic analysis part.