AYBE- İklim ve Deniz Bilimleri Lisansüstü Programı - Doktora
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ÖgeUnderstanding The Sources And The Extend Of Atmospheric Particulate Matter Problem Over Turkey Using Mesoscale Chemical Transport Model(Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, 2018-12-21) Baykara, Metin ; Ünal, Alper ; 601132002 ; Climate and Marine Sciences ; İklim ve Deniz BilimleriTurkey, with a population climbing to 80 million, has its own challenging air pollution issues, especially particulate matter pollution. Local emission sources are generally the main contributors of particulate matter levels due to their nature. Among these local emission sources, residential heating is one of the emission sectors that contribute to emissions of harmful air pollutants in highly populated urban areas. As the capital of Turkey's industry, megacity Istanbul has been experiencing air pollution problems that has reached to significant levels since 1980's, in which the pollutant concentrations have exceeded the air quality standards for several times. In Istanbul, local anthropogenic sources comprise nearly 60% of particulate matter levels. According to the air quality monitoring report of the Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, the daily mean particulate matter (<10 μg, PM10) concentrations exceeded the limit with more than 100 μg/m3 at several provinces in winter of 2015 in Istanbul. Representation of major emission sources such as road transportation and residential heating are crucial for the air quality modeling and policy making. Modeling concentrations of particulate matter have a number of important roles, some of which are complementary to measurement. These roles include assessing concentrations at locations without monitors and answering questions such as how will particulate matter levels change in the future. Results of modeling studies can be directly compared to the appropriate ambient air quality standards because all relevant sources of pollution in the modeling domain are included in this type of model. The US EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ v5.2) model, a three-dimensional Eulerian atmospheric chemistry and transport model, was used to evaluate the air quality of Turkey, focusing on Marmara Region and Istanbul for the winter of 2015 using three-level nested domains with an up to date spatially distributed high-resolution emissions inventory based on local activity data. Emissions is one of the two main inputs of CMAQ model. In order to process the high-resolution emissions inventory used in this thesis, a regional emission model, called DUMANpy, similar to Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) Modeling System of the US EPA was adapted and customized to create temporally and spatially distributed emission for Turkey. One of the main purpose of DUMANpy is to convert the resolution of the emission inventory data to the resolution needed by an air quality model. Other main input of CMAQ model is the meteorology input because sophisticated air quality models require meteorological fields and incorporate complex chemical reaction schemes. The meteorological modeling inputs are important due to complications caused by complex terrain conditions, where measurement is not an option. The meteorological inputs for air quality modeling were generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF v3.8.1) model. CMAQ model results showed that using high-resolution emissions for the residential heating sector significantly improve the spatial distribution and concentration of air pollutants (SO2, PM10, PM2.5) for Istanbul. Air quality model simulations with our high-resolution emissions underestimated PM10 concentrations throughout the study episode on average by only 4.16% with a mean bias of 2.23 μg/m3 while base inventory underestimated PM10 concentrations on average by 35.1% with a mean bias of 18.91 μg/m3. Results show that our spatially distributed high-resolution emissions inventory produces more realistic results for Istanbul during wintertime when residential heating has the most influence on local air pollution. These results show the necessity and importance of high-resolution local emissions for anthropogenic emissions sectors for urban areas which in turn would help improve our understanding and extend of the air pollution problem in Turkey.