LEE-Yer Sistem Bilimi-Yüksek Lisans

Bu koleksiyon için kalıcı URI

http://hdl.handle.net/11527/19500

Gözat

Yazar "Ilıcak, Mehmet" ile LEE-Yer Sistem Bilimi-Yüksek Lisans'a göz atma
  • Öge
    Analysis of global climate change on the hydrography of the Black Sea using CMIP6 climate models
    (Graduate School, 2023-01-06) Çetin, Derin Ülger ; Ilıcak, Mehmet ; 601191004 ; Earth System Science
    Climate change has numerous impacts on Earth from past to today. Specially after industrial revolution, the impact of climate change on Earth has been increasing and therefore has been focus of interest by scientists. The study of climate change has become important in terms of examining the negative effects such as drought, floods, the increase in the frequency and impact of severe hurricanes, as well as the increase of ocean and sea water levels, pH changes, salinity and temperature changes, and the melting of glaciers. The models used in this paper created using the close relationship between the ocean and the atmosphere and the use of past climate parameters, with an aim of modeling the ocean parameters for the next century. In this study, the behavior of the Black Sea water in different climate models for the next century was tried to be understood by considering the sea surface water temperature, salinity and heat exchange with the atmosphere, and comparisons between the models were included. In this study, we have analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Black Sea using nine different climate models from the CMIP6 database. We have also examined the net heat flux (Qnet) and the heat transport through the Bosporus Strait, as well as the frequency and duration of marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Black Sea. Our results show that the Black Sea is expected to experience significant warming and changes in salinity in the 21st century, with SST increasing by an average of 4.5 °C and SSS increasing by an average of 2.25 psu. These changes are expected to have significant impacts on the Black Sea ecosystem, as well as on human populations and industries in the region. Our analysis of SST and SSS using the nine CMIP6 models reveals a spatially asymmetrical pattern, with the western part of the Black Sea expected to experience greater warming than the eastern part. The multi-model mean also shows that the warming trend in the Black Sea is expected to continue in a nearly monotonic, corresponding to the increase phase of global climate change due to anthropogenic activities. Our analysis of Qnet and heat transport through the Bosporus Strait reveals that the asymmetrical warming pattern in the Black Sea is not due to heat transport from the Bosporus, but rather to net heat flux. We also found that the Rim Current system may play a role in this asymmetrical warming pattern. Our analysis of MHWs in the Black Sea shows that there is expected to be a regime shift in SST, with the frequency and duration of MHWs increasing significantly in the 21st century. In some models, the total number of days considered MHWs is projected to reach over 300 days per year by the end of the century. In conclusion, our study provides new insights into the expected impacts of global climate change on the Black Sea, highlighting the need for further research and efforts to mitigate and adapt to these changes. The asymmetrical warming pattern and the expected increase in MHWs have significant implications for the Black Sea ecosystem, as well as for human populations and industries in the region. Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms driving these changes and to develop strategies for addressing their impacts.