ISTANBUL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY ⋆ GRADUATE SCHOOL PRELIMINARY DESIGN TOOL FOR LAUNCH VEHICLES WITH LIQUID ROCKET ENGINES M.Sc. THESIS Tegin Berkay BUDAK Department of Defense Technologies Defense Technologies Programme JUNE 2025 ISTANBUL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY ⋆ GRADUATE SCHOOL PRELIMINARY DESIGN TOOL FOR LAUNCH VEHICLES WITH LIQUID ROCKET ENGINES M.Sc. THESIS Tegin Berkay BUDAK (514201036) Department of Defense Technologies Defense Technologies Programme Thesis Advisor: Prof. Dr. Alim Rüstem ASLAN JUNE 2025 İSTANBUL TEKNİK ÜNİVERSİTESİ ⋆ LİSANSÜSTÜ EĞİTİM ENSTİTÜSÜ SIVI ROKET MOTORLU FIRLATMA ARAÇLARI İÇİN ÖN TASARIM ARACI YÜKSEK LİSANS TEZİ Tegin Berkay BUDAK (514201036) Savunma Teknolojileri Departmanı Savunma Teknolojileri Programı Tez Danışmanı: Prof. Dr. Alim Rüstem ASLAN HAZİRAN 2025 Tegin Berkay BUDAK, a M.Sc. student of ITU Graduate School student ID 514201036 successfully defended the thesis entitled “PRELIMINARY DESIGN TOOL FOR LAUNCH VEHICLES WITH LIQUID ROCKET ENGINES”, which he/she prepared after ful- filling the requirements specified in the associated legislations, before the jury whose signatures are below. Thesis Advisor : Prof. Dr. Alim Rüstem ASLAN .............................. Istanbul Technical University Jury Members : Assist. Prof. Dr. Cuma YARIM .............................. Istanbul Technical University Assist. Prof. Dr. Erdem Onur ÖZYURT .............................. Turkish-German University Date of Submission : 25 May 2025 Date of Defense : 17 June 2025 v vi To my only and everlasting love, vii viii FOREWORD Firstly, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my thesis advisor, Prof. Dr. Alim Rüstem ASLAN, for his invaluable guidance, insightful feedback, and unwavering support throughout the course of this research. His expertise and encouragement have been instrumental in shaping both the direction and the quality of this work. I am also grateful to my friends and family for their moral support and understanding. In particular, I wish to thank my parents for fostering my curiosity and for always believing in my potential. Lastly, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my wife, Betül YILDIRIM BUDAK, whose love, support, and patience got me through every difficult moment. My greatest strength has come from her unshakable confidence in me. June 2025 Tegin Berkay BUDAK (Astronautical Engineer) ix x TABLE OF CONTENTS Page FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix TABLE OF CONTENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii ABBREVIATIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv SYMBOLS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxi LIST OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxv SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xxvii ÖZET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxix 1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1 Purpose of Thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.2 Similar Works in Literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.3 Hypothesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1.4 Thesis Outline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 2. FUNDAMENTALS AND EVOLUTION OF LAUNCH VEHICLE DESIGN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2.1 Launch Vehicles: Historical Perspective and Current Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2.2 Launch Vehicle Fundamentals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 2.2.1 Launch vehicle classification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 2.2.2 Components of launch vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 2.2.3 Launch vehicle mass elements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.2.4 Launch vehicle performance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 2.2.4.1 Delta-V requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 2.2.4.2 Specific impulse (Isp) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 2.2.4.3 Payload fraction (π) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 2.2.4.4 Structural factor (σ ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 2.2.5 Staging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 2.2.6 Launch sites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 2.3 Rocket Engine Fundamentals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 2.3.1 Liquid rocket engines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 2.3.1.1 Liquid rocket engine propellants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 2.3.1.2 Cycles of liquid rocket engines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 2.4 Launch Vehicle Design Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 2.4.1 Stages of design and development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 2.4.2 Preliminary design phase . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 3. TOOL DEVELOPMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 3.1 Tool Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 3.2 Mission Energy Requirements Sub-model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 3.2.1 Operational constraints of the model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 3.2.2 Model steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 3.3 Propulsion Sub-model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 3.4 Stage Delta-V (∆V ) Distribution Sub-model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 3.4.1 Stage optimum ∆V optimization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 3.4.2 Stage mass distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 3.4.3 Thrust-to-weight ratio and maximum acceleration constraints . . . . . . . . 86 3.5 Mass Properties Sub-model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 3.5.1 Engine properties calculation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 3.5.2 Propellant mass and volume calculation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 3.5.3 Propellant tank concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 3.5.4 Length properties calculation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 3.5.5 Diameter scan range suggestions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 xi 3.5.6 Mass properties calculation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 3.5.6.1 Propellant tanks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 3.5.6.2 Insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 3.5.6.3 Interstage, intertank, forward skirt and aft skirt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 3.5.6.4 Liquid rocket engine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 3.5.6.5 Thrust frame . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 3.5.6.6 Thrust vector control (TVC) system. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 3.5.6.7 Pressurization and feed system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 3.5.6.8 Avionics, primary power and wiring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 3.5.6.9 Payload fairing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 3.6 Cost Properties Sub-model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 3.6.1 Development cost estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 3.6.1.1 Cost scaling factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 3.6.1.2 System engineering and integration factor ( f0) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 3.6.1.3 Technical quality factor ( f2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 3.6.1.4 Team experience factor ( f3) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 3.6.1.5 Parallel organization factor ( f7). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 3.6.1.6 Development schedule factor ( f6) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 3.6.1.7 Development type coefficient ( fxx,stage or fxx,eng) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 3.6.2 Production cost estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 3.6.2.1 Engine production cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 3.6.2.2 Cost reduction factor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 4. TOOL VALIDATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 4.1 Mission Energy Requirements Validation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 4.2 Propulsion Validation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 4.3 Mass Properties Validation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 4.3.1 Data used for mass element validation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 4.3.2 Propellant tanks and insulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 4.3.3 Interstage, intertank, forward skirt and aft skirt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 4.3.4 Liquid rocket engine and gimbal (TVC) system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 4.3.5 Thrust frame . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 4.3.6 Pressurization and feed system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 4.3.7 Avionics, primary power and wiring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 4.3.8 Payload fairing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164 4.3.9 Reserve, start and unused propellant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 4.4 Cost Properties Validation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168 5. TOOL APPLICATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 5.1 Case Study 1: Design Strategy for Small Launch Vehicle to Deliver 10,000 kg Total Payload . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 5.1.1 1000 kg payload vehicle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175 5.1.2 500 kg payload vehicle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179 5.1.3 Comparison . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185 5.1.4 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189 5.2 Case Study 2: Sensitivity Analysis of First Stage T/W Ratio and Engine Clustering in Multistage Launch Vehicle Design. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190 5.2.1 System mass margin variation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 5.2.2 Thrust frame mass variation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 5.2.3 Engine mass variation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 5.2.4 Thrust vector system mass variation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193 5.2.5 Burn time vs. T/W ratio. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194 5.2.6 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 5.3 Case Study 3: Super-Heavy Launch Vehicle of Türkiye . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 5.3.1 Launch site comparison . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 5.3.2 Engine candidates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207 5.3.3 Launch vehicle concept candidates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208 5.3.4 Configuration 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212 5.3.5 Configuration 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 5.3.6 Configuration 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 5.3.7 Configuration 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216 5.3.8 Selected configurations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 xii 5.3.9 Cost estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219 6. CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 6.1 Further Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226 REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229 APPENDICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237 APPENDIX A : Packing of circles in a larger circle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239 APPENDIX B : Mission scenarios based on user input . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241 APPENDIX C : Orbital calculations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 CURRICULUM VITAE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249 xiii xiv ABBREVIATIONS AIAA : American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics CEA : Chemical Equilibrium with Applications ECO : Engine Cut-Off EX : Expander Cycle GG : Gas Generator Cycle GEO : Geo-Synchronous Earth Orbit GLOM : Gross Lift-Off Mass GLOW : Gross Lift-Off Weight GTO : Geostationary Transfer Orbit IMU : Inertial Measurement Unit ICBM : Intercontinental Ballistic Missile ISS : International Space Station JP : Japan KR : South Korea LCC : Life Cycle Cost LCH4 : Liquid Methane LEO : Low Earth Orbit LEO : Low-Earth Orbit LH2 : Liquid Hydrogen LOX : Liquid Oxygen LRE : Liquid Rocket Engine MER : Mass Estimation Relationship MGA : Mass Growth Allowance MDO : Multidisciplinary Design Optimization MEO : Middle-Earth Orbit MLI : Multi-Layer Insulation MPa : Megapascal NASA : National Aeronautics and Space Administration N2O4 : Dinitrogen Tetroxide O/F : Oxidizer-to-fuel Ratio PEO : Polar Earth Orbit PLA : Payload Adapter PMD : Propellant Management Devices PMF : Propellant Mass Fraction RSE : Residual Standard Error RP-1 : Rocket Propellant – 1 SC : Staged Combustion Cycle SL : Sea Level xv SSME : Space Shuttle Main Engine SSO : Sun-Synchronous Earth Orbit TR : Türkiye T/W : Thrust-to-Weight Ratio TVC : Thrust Vector Control UDMH : Unsymmetrical Dimethylhydrazine US : United States V-2 : Vergeltungswaffe 2, Eng. Retribution Weapon 2 xvi SYMBOLS ∆V : Delta-V, Velocity Change xvii xviii LIST OF TABLES Page Table 2.1 : V-2 missile specifications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Table 2.2 : V-2 missile liquid engine specifications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Table 2.3 : Launch vehicle classification by payload capacity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Table 2.4 : Launch vehicle classification by mission types and their applications. 21 Table 2.5 : Launch vehicle components (1 to 7) continued. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Table 2.6 : Launch vehicle components (8 to 14) continued. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Table 2.7 : Launch vehicle components (15 to 21) continued. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Table 2.8 : Launch vehicle components (22 to 28) continued. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Table 2.9 : Typical Delta-V requirements for various space missions. . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Table 2.10 :Typical specific impulse values for different propulsion systems. . . . . . 31 Table 2.11 :Payload fraction of various launch vehicles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Table 2.12 :Structural factor (σ ) of first stages of various launch vehicles. . . . . . . . . 34 Table 2.13 :Structural factor (σ ) of second stages of various launch vehicles. . . . . 35 Table 2.14 :Structural factor (σ ) of third stages of various launch vehicles. . . . . . . . 35 Table 2.15 :Global launch sites and their orbital capabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Table 2.16 :Comparison of chemical propulsion systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Table 2.17 :Typical characteristics of LREs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Table 2.18 :Typical characteristics of LREs continued. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Table 2.19 :AIAA recommended mass growth allowance (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Table 3.1 : User inputs for the propulsion sub-model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Table 3.2 : Example input for the propulsion sub-model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Table 3.3 : Example output of the propulsion sub-model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Table 3.4 : Sample input of launch vehicle stage ∆V distribution sub-model. . . . . 79 Table 3.5 : Pseudo-code for the bisection method. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 Table 3.6 : Pseudocode for mass calculation in stage distribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 Table 3.7 : Sample output of launch vehicle stage ∆V distribution sub-model. . . . 88 Table 3.8 : Chamber characteristic lengths (L∗) for different propellant combinations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 Table 3.9 : Method 1 rocket engine fit curve coefficients. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 Table 3.10 :Liquid rocket engine data from various references. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 Table 3.11 :Cost scaling factors for development and production estimation. . . . . . 138 Table 3.12 :Team experience factor for cost estimation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 Table 3.13 :Development type coefficient for cost estimation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 Table 4.1 : Design velocities (in m/s) by launch vehicle.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 Table 4.2 : Comparison of estimated ∆V with different correction methods. . . . . . 149 Table 4.3 : Input parameters for propulsion sub-model validation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 Table 4.4 : Comparison of CEA and sub-model outputs for case 1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 Table 4.5 : Comparison of CEA and sub-model outputs for case 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 xix Table 4.6 : Estimated mass values for Saturn V tanks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 Table 4.7 : Errors in mass estimation for Saturn V tanks (%). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 Table 4.8 : Estimated mass values for Ariane 5 oxidizer and fuel tanks. . . . . . . . . . . 155 Table 4.9 : Estimation errors for Ariane 5 oxidizer and fuel tanks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 Table 4.10 :Estimated mass values for structural components. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 Table 4.11 :Estimation errors for structural components. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 Table 4.12 :Estimated mass values of Ariane 5 for engines with TVC. . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 Table 4.13 :Estimation errors of Ariane 5 for engines with TVC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 Table 4.14 :Estimated mass values for Saturn V stage engines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 Table 4.15 :Estimation errors for Saturn V stage engines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 Table 4.16 :TVC mass estimation for Saturn V stages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 Table 4.17 :Pressurization system mass for various launch vehicle stages. . . . . . . . . 161 Table 4.18 :Validation of propellant system mass estimation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 Table 4.19 :Estimated avionics mass values and errors for Saturn V and Ariane 5. 164 Table 4.20 :Launch vehicles and their respective payload fairing masses. . . . . . . . . . 165 Table 4.21 :Unused reserve and propellant estimation for Saturn V and Ariane 5. 167 Table 4.22 :Development costs for selected launch vehicles (FY 2006 $). . . . . . . . . 168 Table 4.23 :Validation of estimated development costs versus actual costs. . . . . . . . 169 Table 5.1 : Ideal engine performance parameters used in the study. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173 Table 5.2 : Specifications of the two-stage launch vehicle for 1000 kg payload. . 179 Table 5.3 : Maximum stage 2 PMF to maintain ≥ 15% structural mass margin. . 182 Table 5.4 : Minimum stage 2 PMF values to achieve payload fraction ≥ 1%. . . . . 183 Table 5.5 : Acceptable stage 2 PMF ranges for margin and payload fraction compliance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184 Table 5.6 : Specifications of the two-stage launch vehicle for 500 kg payload. . . . 184 Table 5.7 : Comparison of two-stage launch vehicles for 500 kg and 1000 kg payloads. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185 Table 5.8 : Assumptions for cost factor ( f ) analysis of launch vehicle elements. . 186 Table 5.9 : Assumptions for production numbers of stages and engines. . . . . . . . . . . 187 Table 5.10 :Assumed p-factors for cost reduction analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 Table 5.11 :Corresponding f4 values for cost reduction analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188 Table 5.12 :Total development and production costs of the launch vehicles. . . . . . . 188 Table 5.13 :Launch vehicle parameters used in the case study. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 Table 5.14 :Geographic coordinates of candidate launch sites. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 Table 5.15 :Selected launch azimuths, corresponding parking orbit inclinations, and total mission ∆V requirements for each candidate launch site. . . . 204 Table 5.16 :Candidate engine configurations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208 Table 5.17 :Ideal performance specifications of the six reference rocket engines.. 208 Table 5.18 :Specifications of launch vehicle configurations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211 Table 5.19 :Mass breakdowns of launch vehicle configurations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211 Table 5.20 :Engine counts and mass margins for selected configurations 1 and 4. 218 Table 5.21 :Stage thrust parameters for selected configurations 1 and 4. . . . . . . . . . . 219 Table 5.22 :Assumptions for cost factor ( f ) analysis of launch vehicle elements. . 219 Table 5.23 :Production quantities by configuration and stage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 Table 5.24 :Development and production costs for selected configurations (in MYR). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 xx Table 5.25 :Development and production costs converted to USD (in billions), using 1 MYR = 200 000 USD. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 Table A.1 : Densest packing possible minimum diameter.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239 xxi xxii LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 2.1 : Tsiolkovsky’s work, 1914 edition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Figure 2.2 : Left. Goddard’s liquid propellant rocket. Right. Goddard’s rocket’s components. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Figure 2.3 : V-2 ballistic missile. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Figure 2.4 : V-2 engine. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Figure 2.5 : R-7 Semyorka to Soyuz launch vehicle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Figure 2.6 : Side and bottom views of N-1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Figure 2.7 : Family of Saturn rockets.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Figure 2.8 : Saturn V. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Figure 2.9 : Space Shuttle launch. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Figure 2.10 :Buran orbiter. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Figure 2.11 :Launch costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Figure 2.12 :Launch vehicle components. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Figure 2.13 :Comparison of Delta-V requirements for different space missions. . 30 Figure 2.14 :Structural factor σ as a function of propellant mass for various launch vehicle stages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Figure 2.15 :Launch vehicle staging. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Figure 2.16 :Rocket engine control volume.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Figure 2.17 : Isp with the changing O/F. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Figure 2.18 :Tc of LOX-LH2 with the changing O/F. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Figure 2.19 :Tc of LOX-RP1 with the changing O/F. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Figure 2.20 :Tc of N2O4-MMH with the changing O/F. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Figure 2.21 :Pressure fed cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Figure 2.22 :OMS engine outer view.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Figure 2.23 :OMS engine schematic of feed lines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Figure 2.24 :Gas generator cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Figure 2.25 :F-1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Figure 2.26 :Merlin-1D. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Figure 2.27 :Typical (fuel-rich) staged combustion cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Figure 2.28 :Full flow staged combustion cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Figure 2.29 :Open expander cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Figure 2.30 :Closed expander cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Figure 2.31 :Electric pump cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Figure 2.32 :9 x Rutherford engines seen on the first stage of Electron LV. . . . . . . . 58 Figure 2.33 :Launch vehicle design process flowchart. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Figure 2.34 :Design process/life-cycle flow.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Figure 2.35 :Mass growth trends across various launch vehicle programs. . . . . . . . . 61 xxiii Figure 2.36 :Breakdown of launch vehicle wet mass.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Figure 3.1 : Preliminary design tool flowchart. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Figure 3.2 : Mission energy requirements sub-model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Figure 3.3 : Launch azimuth with corresponding inclination. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Figure 3.4 : Mission scenario decision and calculation.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 Figure 3.5 : Mission ∆V summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 Figure 3.6 : Propulsion sub-model flow chart. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Figure 3.7 : Change of Isp with different O/F for LOX – RP1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Figure 3.8 : Change of Isp with different O/F for LOX – LH2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Figure 3.9 : Stage Delta-V (∆V ) distribution sub-model steps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 Figure 3.10 :Mass properties sub-model steps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Figure 3.11 :Contraction ratio vs throat diameter.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 Figure 3.12 :Dimensions of liquid rocket engine. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 Figure 3.13 :Start-up transient of a liquid rocket engine. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Figure 3.14 :Propellant tank concept. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Figure 3.15 :Aspect ratio of propellant tank dome. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Figure 3.16 :Dimensions of launch vehicle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 Figure 3.17 :Diameters of launch vehicles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 Figure 3.18 :L/D of launch vehicles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 Figure 3.19 :Tank mass correlation with volume. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 Figure 3.20 : Insulation areal density based on propellant storage temperature. . . . 110 Figure 3.21 :Mass of structures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 Figure 3.22 :Method 2 of mass estimation for liquid rocket engines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 Figure 3.23 :Expander cycle regression curve. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 Figure 3.24 :Staged combustion cycle regression curve. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 Figure 3.25 :Gas generator cycle regression curve for Fvac,kN < 400kN. . . . . . . . . . . 121 Figure 3.26 :Gas generator cycle regression curve for Fvac,kN > 400kN. . . . . . . . . . . 121 Figure 3.27 :Altas V 401 mission profile. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 Figure 3.28 :Delta IV M+(5,4) mission profile. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 Figure 3.29 :Delta IV M+(5,4) mission profile. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 Figure 3.30 :Dimensions of the payload fairing calculation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 Figure 3.31 :Observed h1/h2 ratios from various launch vehicle fairing designs. . 136 Figure 3.32 :Reference net mass fraction for cryo stages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 Figure 3.33 :Reference net mass fraction for storable or semi-cryo stages. . . . . . . . 140 Figure 3.34 :Development schedule factor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 Figure 3.35 :Learning factor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 Figure 3.36 :Production cost reduction factor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 Figure 4.1 : Thrust frame mass estimation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 Figure 4.2 : Pressurization system mass estimation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162 Figure 4.3 : Payload fairing mass and estimation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165 Figure 4.4 : Payload fairing volume estimation from payload mass capability. . . . 166 Figure 5.1 : Payload fraction for various PMF values. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 Figure 5.2 : 1000 kg PL vehicle PMF values vs stage mass margins. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175 Figure 5.3 : 1000 kg PL vehicle stage mass margins after the use of composites. 176 Figure 5.4 : 1000 kg PL vehicle stage 2 mass margins and L/D ratios of corresponding vehicle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178 Figure 5.5 : 500 kg payload vehicle L/D vs PMF. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 xxiv Figure 5.6 : 500 kg payload vehicle stage 2 mass margin vs PMF. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181 Figure 5.7 : 500 kg payload vehicle stage 1 mass margin vs PMF. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181 Figure 5.8 : 500 kg payload vehicle mass vs PMF. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182 Figure 5.9 : 500 kg payload vehicle paylaod ratio vs PMF. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 Figure 5.10 :Variation of mass margin with respect to first stage T/W ratio and number of engines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 Figure 5.11 :Total thrust frame mass distribution as a function of T/W and engine count. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193 Figure 5.12 :Aggregate engine mass as a function of T/W ratio and number of engines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193 Figure 5.13 :TVC system total mass dependence on engine count and T/W ratio. 194 Figure 5.14 :Burn time of the first stage for varying thrust-to-weight ratios. . . . . . . 195 Figure 5.15 :Azimuth range of Naro Space Center. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 Figure 5.16 :Azimuth range of Cape Canaveral. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201 Figure 5.17 :Azimuth range of Tanegashima Launch Center. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201 Figure 5.18 :Azimuth range of Northern Istanbul Launch Complex. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201 Figure 5.19 :Azimuth’s and corresponding inclinations of Naro Space Center. . . . 202 Figure 5.20 :Azimuth’s and corresponding inclinations of Cape Canaveral. . . . . . . 202 Figure 5.21 :Azimuth’s and corresponding inclinations of Tanegashima Launch Center. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 Figure 5.22 :Azimuth’s and corresponding inclinations of Northern Istanbul Launch Complex. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 Figure 5.23 :∆V profile of Naro Space Center. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204 Figure 5.24 :∆V profile of Cape Canaveral. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 Figure 5.25 :∆V profile of Tanegashima / Takezaki Launch Center. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 Figure 5.26 :∆V profile of Northern Istanbul Launch Complex. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206 Figure 5.27 :Launch mass of the configurations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209 Figure 5.28 :payload fractions of the configurations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210 Figure 5.29 :Configuration 1 engine numbers vs mass margin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 Figure 5.30 :Configuration 1 engine numbers vs structural mass. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 Figure 5.31 :Configuration 2 engine numbers vs mass margin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 Figure 5.32 :Configuration 3 engine numbers vs mass margin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216 Figure 5.33 :Configuration 4 stage 1 engine numbers vs mass margin. . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 Figure 5.34 :Configuration 4 stage 2 engine numbers vs mass margin. . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 Figure A.1 : Packing for n = 2 to n = 11. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240 Figure B.1 : Mission case 1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241 Figure B.2 : Mission case 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 Figure B.3 : Mission case 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242 Figure B.4 : Mission case 4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243 Figure C.1 : Velocity benefit/penalty with launch latitude and azimuth.. . . . . . . . . . . 248 xxv xxvi PRELIMINARY DESIGN TOOL FOR LAUNCH VEHICLES WITH LIQUID ROCKET ENGINES SUMMARY The design of launch vehicles powered by liquid rocket engines is a complex and multidisciplinary challenge that requires careful integration of mission requirements, propulsion system performance, and structural efficiency. Decisions made during the preliminary design phase have significant impacts on the overall performance, feasibility, and cost of the vehicle. Addressing the need for a structured and efficient approach to this phase, this study introduces a computational tool designed to streamline the early-stage design process of launch vehicles. The tool operates through a systematic workflow, beginning with the calculation of deltaV requirements for various mission scenarios. It evaluates the chemical performance of different propellant combinations using a pre-generated data set, providing rapid and accurate assessments essential for early design decisions. Users are able to input key design parameters such as payload capacity, the number of stages, and general engine performance characteristics. For stage deltaV distribution, the tool offers flexibility by allowing either user-defined input or an automated optimization process to minimize total vehicle mass. This adaptability supports both custom mission-driven configurations and efficient design solutions. The tool also performs a comprehensive scan of the vehicle’s diameter range to ensure that mass margins are feasible. This process incorporates mass estimation models for structural components and subsystems, supporting realistic and practical design outcomes. Additionally, the tool allows users to designate design concepts, including general tank configurations and preferences, make sure that the resulting designs align with structural and operational constraints. After determining the configuration, the tool finalizes the vehicle’s dimensions, mass properties, and structural margins. It further provides comprehensive cost analysis, estimating the costs of research and development, production costs, and potential development timelines. The tool’s accuracy and reliability have been validated using data from existing or retired launch vehicles, demonstrating its effectiveness in producing feasible and realistic design solutions. By integrating performance analysis, structural evaluation, and cost estimation within a unified framework, the tool offers launch vehicle designers a valuable resource for making informed decisions during the early stages of launch vehicle development. This study contributes to the advancement of preliminary design methodologies in the space industry by providing a practical, flexible, and efficient approach to launch vehicle configuration and analysis. The developed tool supports the creation of xxvii innovative and cost-effective launch systems, bridging the gap between preliminary design and detailed engineering. xxviii SIVI ROKET MOTORLU FIRLATMA ARAÇLARI İÇİN ÖN TASARIM ARACI ÖZET Sıvı yakıtlı çok kademeli fırlatma araçlarının tasarımı, görev gereksinimlerinin mühendislik doğruluğuyla karşılanması, yapı-kütle dengelerinin sağlanması ve itki sistemlerinin yeterli performansı sunması gibi çok sayıda alt problemi içeren karmaşık bir mühendislik sürecidir. Özellikle ön tasarım aşamasında yapılan teknik kararlar, daha sonraki detay mühendisliği ve maliyet analizlerini doğrudan etkilemekte; sistemin uygulanabilirliği ve fizibilitesi açısından kritik roller üstlenmektedir. Bu çalışma, bu ön tasarım aşamasında kullanılmak üzere, sistematik ve modüler yapıda bir hesaplama aracı geliştirerek fırlatma aracı konfigürasyonlarının etkin şekilde değerlendirilmesini ve analiz edilmesini amaçlamaktadır. Geliştirilen hesaplama aracı, görev hedeflerinin belirlenmesiyle başlayıp kademeli olarak araç geometrisinin, kütle dağılımının, yakıt konfigürasyonlarının ve performans parametrelerinin optimize edilmesine olanak tanıyan bir süreç sunmaktadır. Araç, hem kullanıcı tanımlı verilerle hem de otomatik optimizasyon modlarıyla çalışabilmekte, bu yönüyle esnek bir tasarım ortamı sunmaktadır. Özellikle toplam araç kütlesini minimize edecek şekilde kademeler arası Delta-V dağılımını otomatik olarak optimize edebilmektedir. Bu işlevsellik, kullanıcıya hem görev odaklı özel çözümler üretme hem de tasarım uzayında geniş bir aralıkta sistematik taramalar yapma imkanı sağlamaktadır. Araç, öncelikle görev senaryosuna uygun Delta-V ihtiyacını belirlemekle işe başlar. Bu analiz, görev yörüngesinin irtifası, eğikliği ve fırlatma sahasının coğrafi konumu gibi kriterlere bağlı olarak otomatik hesaplanır. Ardından, farklı yakıt kombinasyonlarına ait termokimyasal verileri içeren önceden oluşturulmuş veri setleri aracılığıyla motor performans parametreleri (özgül itki, çıkış hızı, genleşme oranı vb.) elde edilir. Bu veriler, görev gereksinimlerine uygun motor tasarımı için başlangıç noktası oluşturur. İtki sistemi analizinde farklı çevrim türleri (örneğin gaz jeneratörlü ve aşamalı yanmalı çevrimler) ve yakıt-oksitleyici çiftleri (özellikle LOX-RP1 ve LOX-LH2) dikkate alınmakta, farklı genleşme oranları ve odak basınçları ile bu kombinasyonların motor performansına etkisi analiz edilmektedir. Özellikle üst kademede kullanılan LOX-LH2 sistemleri, yüksek özgül itki avantajı sayesinde kütle optimizasyonuna önemli katkılar sağlamaktadır. Her kademe için kullanıcı, motor karakteristiği, motor demeti sayısı ve itki-ağırlık oranı gibi parametreleri girebilmekte veya belirli sınırlar dahilinde sistemin bunları otomatik optimize etmesine olanak tanıyabilmektedir. xxix Araç içerisinde yer alan kütle tahmin modülü, her alt sistem (motorlar, tanklar, yönlendirme sistemleri, ara bağlantı elemanları vb.) için birden fazla regresyon veya ampirik model içermektedir. Bu modeller, geometrik parametreler, itki kapasitesi, motor konfigürasyonu, yakıt hacmi gibi girdilere dayalı olarak yapısal ve kuru kütle tahminleri üretmektedir. Tank kütlesi, genellikle çap, boy oranı ve içerdiği yakıt hacmiyle ilişkili olarak tahmin edilirken; motor montaj sistemleri, yönlendirme sistemleri ve ara bağlantı yapıları gibi bileşenlerde alan, hacim ve yük taşıma kapasitesi gibi parametreler kullanılmaktadır. Bu modellerin hesaplama prensipleri genellikle logaritmik, güç yasalarına dayalı veya çoklu değişkenli regresyonlar şeklindedir. Aynı bileşen için farklı mühendislik yaklaşımlarının çıktıları karşılaştırılarak, tasarım marjlarını sağlayan en güvenli tahmin tercih edilmektedir. Bu kütle tahmin modeli, yalnızca geometrik ve fiziksel büyüklüklere dayanmamakta, aynı zamanda yapısal marjlar ve kütle oranları gibi mühendislik toleranslarını da dikkate almaktadır. Bu sayede elde edilen sonuçlar, yalnızca minimum kütleye odaklanan bir optimizasyondan ziyade, uygulanabilirliği yüksek gerçekçi tasarımların elde edilmesini sağlamaktadır. Sistemde yer alan maliyet tahmin alt modülü, geliştirme, üretim ve operasyonel maliyetleri ayrı ayrı analiz etmektedir. Bu analizde hem yıllık insan gücü gereksinimi hem de üretim hacmine göre ölçeklenen değişken maliyetler dikkate alınmakta, böylece farklı konfigürasyonlar arasındaki ekonomik karşılaştırma yapılabilmektedir. Maliyet modeli ayrıca geliştirme süresine bağlı olarak toplam yatırım planını da sunmaktadır. Araç, farklı görev ve tasarım senaryolarını içeren üç vaka çalışmasıyla doğrulanmıştır. Her biri, aracın alt modüllerinin koordineli biçimde çalışmasını sağlayarak farklı teknik tercihlere göre nasıl sonuçlar ürettiğini göstermektedir. İlk vaka çalışması, 500 kg ve 1000 kg faydalı yükleri LEO’ya taşıyabilecek iki farklı küçük fırlatma aracı konfigürasyonu üzerine kurgulanmıştır. Görev için belirlenen sabit Delta-V değeri kullanılarak, farklı yakıt oranları (örneğin propellant mass fraction – PMF değerleri %0.86 ila %0.92 arasında) taranmış, çap-boy oranları ve motor demeti sayıları optimize edilmiştir. 1000 kg taşıyan sistemde 9 motorlu bir ilk kademe ve 1 motorlu bir üst kademe tercih edilmiştir. Bu yapı, %1.46 faydalı yük oranı ve %13’ün üzerinde yapısal marj üretmiştir. Daha küçük 500 kg konfigürasyonunda ise PMF değeri düşürülerek %1’e yakın bir faydalı yük oranı korunmuş, yapısal bütünlük sağlanmıştır. Bu analiz, aracın farklı yük profillerine adaptasyon kabiliyetini ve optimum yapı-kararlarının nasıl değiştiğini göstermektedir. İkinci vaka çalışması, ilk kademede kullanılan motor demeti sayısı (1’den 15’e) ve itki-ağırlık oranının (1.1–1.8) aracın toplam kütlesine, itki yönlendirme sistemine, motor kütlesine ve yanma süresine etkilerini incelemiştir. Bu analizle, optimum performans bölgesi tanımlanmıştır: 6 ila 9 motorlu yapı, itki-ağırlık oranı 1.3–1.5 olan sistemler, hem yapısal hem operasyonel olarak dengeli sonuçlar vermiştir. Motor arızasına dayanıklı, makul motor kütlesi ve kontrollü yanma süresine sahip sistemlerin bu bölgede kümelendiği görülmüştür. Bu vaka, aracın parametrik tarama yeteneğini ve çok boyutlu tasarım uzayında karar destek üretme kabiliyetini göstermektedir. xxx Üçüncü vaka çalışması, 100 metrik tonluk bir faydalı yükün 800 km irtifada, 99 derece eğiklikteki Güneş eşzamanlı bir yörüngeye ulaştırılmasını amaçlayan süper-ağır bir fırlatma aracı tasarımıdır. Türkiye için önerilen İstanbul fırlatma kompleksiyle birlikte, Tanegashima (Japonya), Naro (Güney Kore) ve Kennedy Space Center (ABD) sahaları analiz edilmiştir. Japonya ve Kore’den yapılan fırlatmaların eğiklik farkının az olması nedeniyle toplam Delta-V ihtiyacı yaklaşık 10150 m/s civarında kalmıştır. ABD’den fırlatmada ise uçuş yönü sınırlamaları nedeniyle 14600 m/s’yi aşan çok daha yüksek bir enerji ihtiyacı doğmuştur. Bu durum, fırlatma sahasının sistem kütlesi ve tasarım üzerindeki etkisini açıkça ortaya koymuştur. Bu vaka kapsamında altı farklı motor tipi; LOX-RP1 ve LOX-LH2 yakıt çiftleri, farklı genleşme oranları ve çevrim tipleriyle birlikte değerlendirilmiştir. İlk kademede yüksek itki sağlayan RP1 motorları, üst kademede ise yüksek özgül itki sağlayan LH2 motorları tercih edilmiştir. Yapısal marjları pozitif tutmak ve toplam sistem kütlesini sınırlamak adına PMF değerleri %0.90 ila %0.95 arasında taranmış, motor performans tabloları ile çap ve oran analizleri entegre edilmiştir. Bu çalışma ile geliştirilen modüler hesaplama aracı, geleneksel basitleştirilmiş analizlerin ötesine geçerek, her alt sistem için mühendislik doğruluğuna sahip hesaplamalar gerçekleştiren, esnek ve uygulamaya dönük bir araç sunmaktadır. Geliştirilen sistem, hem akademik çalışmalar hem de endüstriyel mühendislik için ön tasarım ve detay mühendislik süreçleri arasında köprü kuran güçlü bir platform olma niteliğindedir. xxxi xxxii 1. INTRODUCTION In aerospace engineering, creating the ideal launch vehicle design has been a top priority, and Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) techniques have made a substantial contribution to this effort. To find the optimal vehicle design, Castellini, Woodward, and others [1]–[5] have investigated combining structural optimization, propulsion efficiency, and trajectory analysis into a single framework. The complexity of the initial design phase, where precise mass estimation, Delta-V (∆V ) budgeting, and subsystem-level analysis are crucial in defining workable and effective configurations prior to full-scale optimization, is frequently overlooked by MDO methodologies, despite their advancements. The need for trustworthy engineering models that can strike a compromise between computational efficiency and physical accuracy is a basic challenge in the early design of launch vehicles. Although current MDO frameworks offer a comprehensive approach to system-level optimization, they usually depend on streamlined mass estimating methods and presumptions about vehicle subsystems. This may result in early design errors that compromise the validity of optimization outcomes. Furthermore, the ultimate cost, performance, and viability of a launch system are greatly impacted by early design choices made in real-world engineering practice. For this reason, it is essential to create computational tools that prioritize thorough engineering modeling prior to optimization. 1.1 Purpose of Thesis In response to these limitations, this research proposes a highly detailed and modular computational framework tailored for the early-stage design and analysis of launch vehicles. Rather than relying solely on an integrated MDO model to determine an optimal configuration, this study segments the design process into multiple specialized tools, each dedicated to a specific subsystem or analysis domain. By 1 adopting this approach, it becomes possible to capture key engineering constraints, physical interactions, and performance trade-offs with greater accuracy, ensuring that subsequent optimization studies are built upon a solid foundation of realistic and well-defined parameters. This thesis’s main goal is to create a comprehensive and adaptable design environment that makes it easier to optimize launch vehicle designs iteratively. The framework combines performance evaluation, structural mass estimation, and propulsion system analysis into a unified but modular process. Before committing to a final optimization procedure, this allows engineers and researchers to investigate potential design trade-offs, carry out sensitivity assessments, and assess the effects of various propulsion and structural configurations. 1.2 Similar Works in Literature A strong methodological approach combining trajectory analysis, propulsion system design, structural considerations, and cost evaluations is necessary for the detailed design and optimization of launch vehicles. By creating computational tools, suggesting optimization techniques, and examining current launch vehicle configurations, numerous studies have made substantial contributions to this field. An overview of related works in the literature is provided in this section, with an emphasis on their approaches, conclusions, and limitations. Numerous scholars have put forth frameworks, methods, and techniques over the years to maximize the performance of both reusable and disposable launch vehicles. Important contributions to the literature are reviewed in this section. The review seeks to shed light on conceptual design tools, cost-reliability trade-offs, and optimization techniques that support launch vehicle development in its early stages. The modeling and design processes of launch vehicles have been extensively studied in the literature. Some of these studies include Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) techniques, while others focus solely on specific subsystem modeling. This section explores the key works in MDO applications for launch vehicle design, mass estimation methods, and hybrid propulsion systems. 2 The first subject to be discussed is the work of Castellini, which is a creation of a framework for Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) of expandable launch vehicles [1]. The mentioned work is one of the detailed studies done on a launch vehicle design, which incorporates not only the bigger picture, but also detailed sub-system level modelling. The primary motivation behind this research is the high time and cost investment in the preliminary and conceptual design phases. Castellini’s study claims that 80% of the total Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of a launch system is determined during these early design stages. His goal is to retain a manageable computational effort while increasing the multidisciplinary models’ accuracy and robustness in comparison to conventional fixed-point iteration design techniques. For the development and validation of the MDO framework he went into a 2-step approach where at first he created a conceptual level model, he calls V1. Following that, these models were verified using current European rockets like VEGA and Ariane 5. The validation revealed a number of flaws, which prompted the creation of more thorough early preliminary (V2) models. The accuracy of the V2 models was significantly higher than that of the V1 models, with errors on payload mass estimation for Ariane 5 and VEGA decreasing from about 10% to about 4-6%. With nearly 5% system-level mistakes resulting from average errors on an individual mass figure, worst-case sensitivity tests showed that the total inert masses continue to be the most crucial figures, where the error of 3% for propulsion performances and 1% for aerodynamic coefficients observed. Woodward addressed a gap in conceptual launch vehicle design software. As claimed by Woodward, his work fills this gap by creating a modular launch vehicle design tool that is based on Python and supports iterative revisions, making it a flexible tool for launch vehicle analysis and optimization [2]. In order to facilitate the conceptual and preliminary design of launch vehicles, the developed launch vehicle design tool was outfitted with a number of essential features. The energy requirement calculation, which establishes the total energy required for the vehicle to reach a specific orbit with a specified payload capacity, was one of the tool’s main features. This is essential for specifying the needs for staging and propulsion. Mass estimate, which determines the masses of various parts to evaluate the structural and propellant mass distribution 3 and guarantee a well-balanced and optimized vehicle architecture, was another crucial aspect. In addition to this, propulsion system sizing was used to ensure that the system satisfies the thrust and specific impulse requirements of the mission, which is crucial for reaching the necessary Delta-V (∆V ). The program also included calculations for propellant mass and volume, which allowed for precise assessment of the required fuel and oxidizer volumes while optimizing tank layouts and dimensions. Additionally, geometric modeling was incorporated, enabling the launch vehicle’s basic dimensions and form while preserving a useful and effective design. The entire ascent-to-orbit flight route could be modeled using a trajectory modeling module, which included aerodynamic effects to precisely forecast performance in the actual world. In order to guarantee that the vehicle design stays aerodynamically stable and controllable throughout the ascent phase, a basic stability and control study was also included. Last but not least, the program included a cost estimation function that made it possible to project development and manufacturing expenses as well as the launch service price required for commercial viability. There is another study by Ballard for the development of similar work. Ballard’s study is concentrated on the preliminary design and fixed-point optimization techniques for the optimization of launch vehicles [3]. She created a computational tool in MATLAB. The staging optimization and gravity turn trajectory refinement were made possible by this tool’s integration of an optimization framework based on the Nelder-Mead algorithm. Improving an already-existing stage design tool that was created in Excel was a crucial component of the study. In order to assess crucial propellant budgets, helium reserves, and structural mass estimates, this instrument was greatly enhanced. A more precise comprehension of stage-level performance indicators was ensured by the improved tool’s more accurate launcher feasibility assessments. Another study that deals with the multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) of launch vehicles is that of Balesdent [4]. The extremely limited and computationally demanding nature of trajectory optimization, which has a major influence on the entire design process, is a major problem in this field. The work presents a revolutionary Stage-Wise Decomposition for Optimal Rocket Design (SWORD) methodology in order to overcome this. In contrast to conventional MDO techniques, SWORD 4 breaks down the optimization problem into several flight phases, handling each one separately while coordinating its optimizations. By breaking down the otherwise complex multistage launch vehicle design problem into a number of easier-to-manage subproblems, this organized approach increases computational efficiency. The study examines the optimization of a three-stage-to-orbit launch vehicle by contrasting the SWORD method with the traditional Multi-Discipline Feasible (MDF) MDO approach. According to the results, SWORD improves optimization efficiency, especially when it comes to finding workable solutions more quickly and producing better optimal designs in a limited amount of computational time. To further improve convergence time, an optimization technique specifically designed for SWORD was created. This enables the method to function efficiently without the need for manual initialization parameters or prior knowledge of the search space. This development in launch vehicle design optimization is a significant addition to the field of space transportation system design since it offers a viable strategy for reaching quicker and more dependable solutions. Gaspar’s research is another contribution to launch vehicle design studies, developing a MATLAB-based tool that integrates mass modeling and trajectory simulation for early-stage rocket design [5]. Using a database to define reasonable parameter ranges, the tool estimated key vehicle parameters such as length, diameter, thrust, burning duration, and specific masses. While Mass Estimating Relationships (MERs) were attempted, reliable structural estimations were limited due to data scarcity. The mass model iteratively applied Tsiolkovsky’s equation and heuristic MERs to ensure realistic structural mass predictions, incorporating geometric computations to refine accuracy. The trajectory simulation included three phases: vertical ascent, gravity turn (determined by the Knudsen number), and free-flight, optimizing time and propellant usage. A simplified drag model with Mach-dependent coefficients and a hybrid atmospheric model (combining 1962 and 1976 US standard atmospheres) were employed. The tool was validated using the Proton K and Vega launch vehicles, demonstrating effective trajectory simulations but encountering discrepancies due to idealized assumptions such as constant thrust and full propellant consumption. Structural mass estimates were generally high, while propellant 5 mass was underestimated, resulting in lower-than-expected Gross Lift-Off Weight (GLOW). Additionally, structural margin considerations were lacking, limiting its preliminary design accuracy. After validation, the tool was applied to an Ariane 5-based rocket design, successfully reducing GLOW while maintaining mission objectives. Optimization factors included thrust levels, Delta-V (∆V ) distribution, and diameter selection, with boosters enhancing payload capacity. Despite its limitations in structural estimation, the tool provides a useful framework for early-stage launch vehicle design, offering insights into performance trade-offs and enabling configuration optimization. 1.3 Hypothesis Developing an ideal launch vehicle configuration using Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) is the main focus of the literature now available on launch vehicle design, especially the works of Castellini, Woodward, Gaspar, Balesdent, and others. By combining trajectory analysis, propulsion efficiency, and structural optimization into a single framework, these studies seek to determine the optimal vehicle design. Nevertheless, this method frequently ignores the complexities of the initial design stage, where precise mass estimation, Delta-V (∆V ) budgeting, and subsystem-level analysis are essential prior to optimization. This thesis, on the other hand, aims to create a highly comprehensive and flexible computational framework that acts as a fundamental tool for early-stage design and optimization studies, rather than simply determining the ideal launch vehicle configuration. This research divides the launch vehicle design process into several specialized tools, each of which is in charge of a particular subsystem or analysis domain, rather than using a single integrated MDO model. This makes it possible to comprehend the engineering and physical limitations that need to be taken into account before a thorough optimization study can be carried out in greater detail and with greater accuracy. 6 1.4 Thesis Outline Chapter 1 explains the study’s motivation and the difficulties in designing launch vehicles, especially in the beginning. A discussion of the shortcomings of current Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) techniques emphasizes the need for a more precise and adaptable computational framework. A synopsis of the thesis contributions is provided, along with the goals and parameters of the study. Chapter 2 offers a thorough analysis of current launch vehicle design studies and methodology, giving readers a basic understanding of the area. The historical development of launch vehicles is examined first, following developments from the earliest rocketry to the creation of contemporary reusable systems. This historical perspective draws attention to the technological turning points that have influenced modern design methodologies. The conversation then shifts to new developments in launch vehicle design, emphasizing inventions like reusable launch systems and specialized tiny satellite launchers that are propelling space access in the future. Chapter 3 describes how the computational tool was developed, including its modular structure and how its sub-models interact with one another. It discusses the propulsion system model, which computes propellant mass, oxidizer-to-fuel ratio, thrust, and specific impulse. The mass estimation model, which predicts component mass distribution using empirical data and Mass Estimating Relationships (MERs), is discussed. Additionally included is structural modeling, which takes into account subsystem contributions, tank dimensions, and fairing mass. The cost estimating approach, which evaluates development, production, and operating expenses to determine the economic viability of various configurations, is also explained in this chapter. Chapter 4 contains the validation. In this chapter, the correctness and dependability of the computational tool’s sub-models are evaluated in order to validate it. To make sure each model is consistent with the characteristics of launch vehicles in the actual world, it is validated against reference scenarios and current data. Benchmark comparisons and existing empirical data are used to assess the propulsion system, mass estimation, 7 structural, and cost estimation models. In order to pinpoint possible error sources and improve the tool’s predictive power, discrepancies are examined. Chapter 5 includes case studies, in order to illustrate the usefulness of the computational tool in launch vehicle design. To evaluate the tool’s performance under various mission profiles and design limitations, a variety of vehicle configurations are examined. The case studies investigate the effects of design decisions on overall vehicle performance and viability, including mass distribution, structural factors, and propulsion selection. This chapter also examines the outcomes of the case studies and evaluates how well the computational tool performs in producing dependable launch vehicle designs. The accuracy and consistency of the sub-models are evaluated by examining key findings within the framework of current techniques. The effect of design decisions on the overall performance of the vehicle is investigated, paying special emphasis to cost prediction, propulsion efficiency, and mass estimation accuracy. Chapter 6 summarizes the study’s general findings and highlights the usefulness and contributions of the created computational tool for launch vehicle design. The research’s weaknesses are noted and highlighted, indicating areas that require more development. In order to further improve the design process, prospective future development directions are finally described, including improvements to current models and potential integration with more sophisticated optimization frameworks. 8 2. FUNDAMENTALS AND EVOLUTION OF LAUNCH VEHICLE DESIGN 2.1 Launch Vehicles: Historical Perspective and Current Trends For thousands of years, humans have been amazed by the stars and have longed to travel across the sky and discover the unknown. A result of creativity, science, and willpower, space travel has revolutionized exploration and set precedents that have permanently altered our perception of the cosmos and our place in it. The advancement of space flight is a tribute to human intellect and tenacity as well as a technological success. In order to build machines that could resist the harsh conditions of space, it required advances in physics, materials science, computer engineering, and propulsion systems, all of which had to be seamlessly integrated. Space flight is a prime example of what humanity can accomplish when desire and ingenuity are in harmony, from the initial hesitant steps of putting satellites into orbit to the landing of humans on the moon and the sending of probes to the extreme reaches of the solar system. As a peak of technical development, space travel has not only deepened our understanding of the universe but also sparked numerous innovations that have improved life on Earth, ranging from global positioning systems (GPS) and satellite communications to breakthroughs in materials and medicine. Space travel is more than just a technological achievement; it is a representation of our insatiable curiosity and our common goal of expanding the realm of the possible. It serves as a constant reminder that people can literally and figuratively aim for the stars. History of early rocketry starts with Konstantin Tsiolkovsky. Many people consider the Russian schoolteacher and self-taught scientist Konstantin Tsiolkovsky (1857–1935) to be the founder of theoretical astronautics. Tsiolkovsky made important contributions to our understanding of how rockets could be used to journey to space, despite working in relative solitude. In 1903, he published his contributions to rocketry in the magazine 9 called Nauchnoe Obozrenie (which in Russian, it means "Scientific Review") with a name of "Exploration of the World Space with Reaction Machines", which can be observed from Figure 2.1 [6]. In his work that is mentioned, he gave the details of his famous equation that defines the relationship between the velocity of a rocket, the exhaust velocity of its propellant, and the mass ratio of the rocket before and after fuel consumption, Equation 2.1. ∆v = ve ln ( m0 m f ) (2.1) Figure 2.1 : Tsiolkovsky’s work, 1914 edition. While the Tsiolkovsky’s work is entirely theoretical, in order to reach the stars, one must use theory to create the practical knowledge. That is the text-book definition of Robert Goddard. Goddard’s work has been more of an experimental kind and he is called "The Father of Modern Rocketry", because of his contributions to modern rocketry as he had a large number of inventions and patents, exceeding 200 [7]. One of the contributions of his work to rocketry is the world’s first liquid propellant rocket engine and rocket, which can be seen from Figure 2.2 [6]. 10 Figure 2.2 : Left. Goddard’s liquid propellant rocket. Right. Goddard’s rocket’s components. The rocket that is observed in Figure 2.2, is launched in 16 March 1926. As far as it can be understood, he couldn’t find a proper place to launch. Thus, he set the launch place as his aunt’s (Ms. Effie M. Ward) backyard at the farm located in Auburn, Massachusets. He managed to launch the rocket to the altitude of 12.5 m and landed 56 m far from the launch location in a cabbage field [7]. The flight took a little over 2 seconds, but became a milestone in modern rocketry. He was also known for his works for the war efforts of World War II. His contributions to the rocketry are recognized and has been given a task of rocket-assisted takeoff development for heavily loaded aircraft operations. Which in fact, tested and approved. But unfortunately, he was not enough recognized by the scientific community until his passing in 1945. He was awarded with Congressional Gold Medal, 14 years after his death and recognized as "father of modern rocketry". In the same year his name is given to a space center which was formerly known as Beltsville Space Center, renamed into Goddard Space Center [6]. In the times of World War II, Germany made efforts to use the technology of rocketry in its war efforts. The team led by Dr. Wernher von Braun developed the Nazi-Germany’s well-known guided ballistic rocket [6] called V-2 (Vergeltungswaffe 2, Eng. Retribution Weapon 2) which also called with the name of Aggregat 4 (A-4), can be examined from Figure 2.3 [7]. 11 Figure 2.3 : V-2 ballistic missile. When the V-2 was tested, its first 3 launch attempts were unsuccessful. But the fourth time it accomplished a maximum altitude of 96 km and a range of 193 km from the launch site. Other important specifications of V-2 is given in Table 2.1 [7]. With that achievement of V-2, the leader of the development team, Dr. von Braun, was appointed professor at that time [7]. Table 2.1 : V-2 missile specifications. Parameter Value Takeoff mass [kg] 12700 Warhead mass [kg] 1000 Total length [m] 14 Liftoff T/W 2 ECO T/W 7 12 The liquid propellant rocket engine that is developed for V-2 missile was the most powerful for its time. Specifications of the engine of V-2 can be observed from Table 2.2 [7]. Also, the photograph of engine can be observed from Figure 2.4 [7]. Table 2.2 : V-2 missile liquid engine specifications. Parameter Value Thrust @SL [kN] 245 Thrust @ECO [kN] 311.3 Chamber pressure [bar] 15.2 Chamber temperature [◦C] 2300 Throat diameter [mm] 400 Exit diameter [mm] 740 Exhaust velocity [m/s] 2050 Specific Impulse (Isp) @SL [s] 210 Figure 2.4 : V-2 engine. In the last minutes of World War II, it was obvious for both Soviet Union and Allies that, rocketry would be the milestone of technological advancement. Therefore, this was the reason for the both sides to collect assets from Nazi-Germany, some of them are individuals. There was an operation called "Operation Paperclip", military of United States of America, captured scientists including and led by Dr. Wernher von Braun. Soviet Union captured some other scientists as well. Those progresses were the cornerstone of the rocket technology [6]. 13 With the knowledge they gathered and experience they made, both USA and Soviet Union developed ballistic missiles for foreign threat. Both also realized that those ballistic missiles could be used as a space launch vehicle to launch objects into orbit. Soviet Union was the first country to launch a manmade object into orbit. The calender’s were October 1957 and the launched object was Sputnik. The Sputnik was a simple satellite with a simple mission but it was a crucial milestone which also started the space-race between United States and Soviet Union. Figure 2.5 : R-7 Semyorka to Soyuz launch vehicle. The Sputnik was launched into orbit with R-7 Semyorka ICBM based launch vehicle [7]. R-7 vehicle used extensively for launching the objects into space for Soviet space program and it turned into the Soyuz, which is still in use today by Russia. This evolution can be observed from Figure 2.5 [6]. Although Soviet’s have the R-7 ICBM, its launch capacity was not enough for launching moon mission payloads. Therefore, they aimed to create a gigantic launcher called N-1, which was also the counterpart of Saturn V. The magnitude of N-1 can be seen from the Figure 2.6. N-1 had a total of 42 rocket engines, 30 in its first stage, 9 in its second stage and 4 in its third stage [8]. While Soviet’s were struggling with harsh development and flight test phases of N-1 launch vehicle, United States was testing different concept vehicles to create a final vehicle to land on the moon. Therefore, their attempts were successful. Saturn V with code-name SA-501 was the vehicle that landed United States on the moon in 1969. Saturn rocket family evolution can be observed from Figure 2.7 [6]. 14 Figure 2.6 : Side and bottom views of N-1. Saturn V had 5 F-1 engines on its first stage, 5 J-2 engines on its second stage, and 1 J-2 engine on its third stage. Other details of the Saturn V can be seen from Figure 2.8 [9]. 15 Figure 2.7 : Family of Saturn rockets. Figure 2.8 : Saturn V. Saturn V was a part of the program Apollo, which started in 1962 and ended in 1972. Saturn V later used for a mission, Skylab space station launch, and it became its last flight before retirement. USA won the lunar part of the space race. 16 In the following years, the sector has evolved into space stations, Earth-orbiting satellites, and orbiter technologies. For this effort, the US created the Space Shuttle [8]. Space Shuttle launch can be observed from Figure 2.9 [6]. The Soviets also had an orbiter, so called Buran, which looks alike the Space Shuttle. Buran orbiter has been presented in Figure 2.10 [6]. Figure 2.9 : Space Shuttle launch. Main difference of Shuttle and Buran is the configuration of the vehicle. Buran orbiter is just a payload of Energia launch vehicle, and the launch vehicle can be used to launch other payloads than the orbiter, while the Shuttle is just part of the launch vehicle. Whereas the Shuttle is used broadly in US space missions until 2011, Buran has just seen one orbital flight before its cancellation in 1994 [6]. Figure 2.10 : Buran orbiter. 17 Despite the technology that Shuttle had and offered, it demonstrated the operational and financial difficulties of launch vehicle development and operations. As Launius stated in his work, the cost for Shuttle Program was 70 K USD per kg (adjusted for inflation to 2024 USD) [10]. Aware of the problem, US Senate launched an act in 1984 that enabled private companies to develop, launch and operate launch vehicles [11]. This was a landmark for space launch sector, as it diminishes the monopoly of governmental programs to create a foundation for the privatization of space operations. This set of regulations promoted competition and gave private businesses the freedom to design launch systems on their own. The act’s long-term effects were apparent in the 1990s and 2000s when businesses like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab started using technological breakthroughs to lower prices and boost the number of launches. Figure 2.11 : Launch costs. The development of more effective commercial space launch vehicles and rocket technological developments are highlighted in Figure 2.11 [12], which shows the sharp decline in launch costs over time. According to the statistics, the cost of launching payloads to low Earth orbit (LEO) has dropped dramatically for heavy, medium, and small launch vehicle categories between the 1960s and the 2020s. Costs were historically very high, especially in the early years of space exploration when the sector was controlled by government-sponsored missions. A major turning point was the development of reusable launch vehicles, like SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, which allowed costs per kilogram to fall to previously unheard-of levels [12]. 18 On the other hand, as the Figure 2.11 illustrates, small launch vehicles have a clear lower-cost limit, but they have a clear benefit in the shape of missions that are specifically designed for them. For customers that need unique orbital insertions or exclusive usage of the rocket, small launchers offer customized options in contrast to medium, heavy, or super-heavy launch vehicles, which usually carry many payloads for cost-sharing. They are therefore the best option for satellite operators who value accuracy and adaptability over financial savings. This advantage is pricey, too, because small launch vehicles are more expensive per kilogram and are unlikely to be able to meet the lower costs that larger vehicles can achieve. Nonetheless, because of economies of scale, utilizing medium or heavy-lift vehicles for smaller payloads can drastically lower launch costs; nonetheless, these shared missions sometimes lack the accuracy and adaptability that specialized launches provide. Operators may have to give up their desired orbit or timing if they decide to take this approach. This trade-off demonstrates how small and large launch vehicles play complementary roles in the market: small rockets serve high-priority, specialty missions, while larger rockets maximize cost-effectiveness for aggregated payloads or bulk deployments. When choosing a launch solution based on mission-specific needs and financial constraints, customers must carefully consider these variables. Looking toward the future, the economics of the launch industry is expected to change further. Due to technological advancements, re-usability, and the growing influence of commercial players, the launch industry is expected to experience previously unheard-of cost reductions in the future. Current projections indicate that advancements in re-usability, economies of scale, more effective production techniques, and reduced input costs might drive a 95% reduction in launch costs by 2040, reaching $100 per kilogram [12]. 19 2.2 Launch Vehicle Fundamentals A launch vehicle is a system used for carrying cargo beyond Earth’s atmosphere. This cargo includes satellites, scientific instruments, crewed spacecraft, and specific cargo to other spacecraft (i.e. ISS). In order to overcome Earth’s gravity and deliver cargo to their intended orbits or interplanetary paths, these spacecraft produce enormous amounts of thrust. The development of commercial satellite deployment, space exploration, and national security missions all depends heavily on the effectiveness, dependability, and affordability of launch vehicles. 2.2.1 Launch vehicle classification Depending on their design and the goals of their missions, launch vehicles have many kinds of uses. Some are designed for satellite placements, putting Earth observation, communication, or navigation satellites in geostationary orbit (GEO) or low Earth orbit (LEO). Others send cargo outside of Earth’s orbit to support scientific missions like space telescopes or interplanetary probes. Furthermore, cargo resupply missions transport vital supplies to space stations such as the International Space Station (ISS), while human spaceflight missions necessitate specific launch vehicles that can guarantee crew safety. The goal of the ongoing development of launch vehicles is to make space travel more economically and environmentally feasible by increasing payload capacity, improving reusability, and lowering costs. Traditionally, launch vehicles are categorized based on their payload capacity (generally to LEO) and mission type. Classification made by NASA in one of their technological road-map, is made with the capacity to low-earth-orbit (LEO), details of this classification summarized in Table 2.3 [13]. The classification of launch vehicles based on mission types can be considered somewhat arbitrary because the same launch vehicle can serve multiple mission types depending on the payload and mission objectives. For example, a vehicle like Falcon 9 can launch communication satellites [14], deploy cargo resupply missions 20 Table 2.3 : Launch vehicle classification by payload capacity. Launch Vehicle Class Payload Capacity (mT) Small Lift < 2 Medium Lift 2 - 20 Heavy Lift 20 - 50 Super-Heavy Lift > 50 to the ISS [15], and carry crewed missions using the Crew Dragon capsule [16]. Similarly, the Atlas V rocket has been used for Earth observation satellites [17], interplanetary exploration (e.g., Perseverance rover [18]), and other mission types. This overlap highlights that mission type classifications often depend more on the specific payload or target orbit rather than the design of the launch vehicle itself. Thus, the boundaries between mission types are fluid and not strictly defined. For an overview of mission-based classifications, refer to Table 2.4. Table 2.4 : Launch vehicle classification by mission types and their applications. Mission Type Orbit/Target Examples Satellite Deploy- ments LEO (300-2,000 km) Starlink, OneWeb (Communica- tions) MEO (2,000-35,786 km) GPS, Galileo (Navigation) GEO (35,786 km) Weather and Telecommunications Satellites SSO (500-800 km) Earth Observation, Remote Sensing Crewed Spaceflight Missions LEO ISS crew transport (Crew Dragon, Soyuz) Beyond Earth Artemis (SLS), Future Mars Mis- sions Cargo Resupply Missions LEO ISS resupply (Cargo Dragon, Cygnus, Progress) Interplanetary Lunar Artemis (SLS), Chang’e missions Mars Perseverance (Atlas V), Tianwen-1 (Long March 5) Asteroids/Outer Planets Europa Clipper, Lucy, JWST (Ari- ane 5) 21 2.2.2 Components of launch vehicles Modern launch vehicles are highly sophisticated engineering systems, meticulously designed to transport payloads beyond Earth’s atmosphere. Every part is essential to the mission’s success. All launch vehicles have the same main goal, which is to deliver payloads into space, but their internal architecture differs based on propulsion technologies, mission requirements, and reusability considerations. Understanding the fundamental components of a launch vehicle is essential for understanding the intricacies of spaceflight and the engineering challenges involved. Many of the basic components of launch vehicles are almost the same, even though they are made to fulfill different mission requirements. Certain fundamental components, such as propulsion systems, avionics, and structural arrangements, are present in all rocket designs, regardless of whether they are intended for the launch of satellites, crewed missions, or deep-space probes. The Figure 2.12 gives a summary of the main parts of a two-stage launch vehicle (that does not have solid rocket motors) and a rundown of its crucial subsystems. This representation helps illustrate how various elements work together to ensure a successful launch, from liftoff to payload deployment. The basic architecture of launch vehicles adheres to a common engineering framework, even though specific design decisions may differ depending on factors like payload capacity, reusability, and propulsion type. Component details of launch vehicle’s are presented in Table 2.5, 2.6, 2.7 and 2.8. It should be noted that the components listed in the tables and illustrated in the figure do not represent a comprehensive list of all possible launch vehicle subsystems. Instead, they are selected to provide a general overview of key elements that contribute to the vehicle’s overall function. Depending on the specific design, mission requirements, and technological advancements, additional components may be incorporated, while some listed elements may vary in configuration or implementation. 22 Figure 2.12 : Launch vehicle components. 23 Table 2.5 : Launch vehicle components (1 to 7) continued. # Component Name Component Function 1 Payload Fairing Protects payload during ascent and is jettisoned after reaching space 2 Payload Launch vehicle’s precious burden 3 PLA/PAF The adapter that connects the launch vehicle and payload 4 2nd Stage Fwd. Skirt Structural element that connects the second stage and payload related structures (PLA, Payload and Fairing) 5 2nd Stage Ox. Tank Oxidizer storage unit for second stage propulsion system 6 2nd Stage Fuel Tank Fuel storage unit for second stage propulsion system 7 2nd Stage Eng. Thrust Frame Structural element that undertakes the load of second stage rocket engine Table 2.6 : Launch vehicle components (8 to 14) continued. # Component Name Component Function 8 2nd Stage Eng. TVC System Adjusts the direction of the engine nozzle to precisely control the vehicle’s orientation and trajectory during orbital insertion and space maneuvers 9 1st Stage Forward Skirt Structural element that connects 1st stage upper tank and interstage structure 10 1st Stage Ox. Tank Oxidizer storage unit for first stage propulsion system 11 Intertank structure Structural element that connects oxidizer and fuel tank 12 1st Stage Fuel Tank Fuel storage unit for first stage propulsion system 13 1st Stage Eng. Thrust Frame Structural element that undertakes the load of first stage rocket engine 14 Aerodynamic Control Surfaces Control element that is used for controlling the ve- hicle’s orientation and trajectory during atmospheric flight through aerodynamic forces 24 Table 2.7 : Launch vehicle components (15 to 21) continued. # Component Name Component Function 15 1st Stage Engines Provides necessary initial thrust to lift the vehicle off the ground and through the lower atmosphere. 16 1st Stage Eng. TVC System Dynamically tilts the main engines to steer the rocket during ascent, providing stability, guidance, and trajectory corrections to ensure a controlled flight path through the atmosphere. 17 Cryogenic Gas Pressurization System Propellant pressurization system that uses cryogeni- cally stored inert gas. The pressurization gas is stored in cryogenic conditions to increase the storage density. Gas is fed into rocket engines heat exchanger, where it heats up to a certain temperature. After that it is fed to the propellant tank. 18 Propellant feed-line through tank Feed-line of a propellant that goes through the other propellant tank. Aerodynamic heating and residual propellant mass is reduced relative to out-of-body feed-line. 19 Ambient Gas Pressurization System Propellant pressurization system that uses ambient stored inert gas. Easy to manage relative to cryogenically stored gas. 20 1st Stage Avion- ics System consists of flight computers, inertial mea- surement units (IMUs), telemetry transmitters, and communication systems, responsible for navigation, thrust vector control (TVC), and stage separation sequencing while ensuring continuous data transmis- sion to ground stations throughout ascent. 21 2nd Stage Engine(s) Provides the necessary propulsion for orbital insertion and payload deployment, operating in the vacuum of space with a high-efficiency nozzle, thrust vector con- trol (TVC) for precise maneuvering, and optimized propellant consumption to achieve mission-specific trajectories. 25 Table 2.8 : Launch vehicle components (22 to 28) continued. # Component Name Component Function 22 Interstage Struc- ture Structural element that connects the first and second stages. 23 Antislosh Baffles Internal structures within propellant tanks designed to reduce fuel movement (sloshing) during flight, ensuring stable mass distribution, preventing shifts in the vehicle’s center of gravity, and improving engine performance and flight stability. 24 Propellant Man- agement Devices (PMDs) Internal components within propellant tanks that ensure consistent fuel and oxidizer flow to the engines by managing fluid movement, preventing bubbles or vapor ingestion, and enabling reliable engine performance in both gravity and microgravity environments. 25 Autogenous Pres- surization System Pressurization system that uses heated gaseous propellant from the engine cycle to self-pressurize the propellant tanks, eliminating the need for external pressurant gases like helium. 26 Insulation Components that minimizes heat transfer and pro- tect critical components from extreme temperature variations experienced during propellant storage, ascent, and space exposure. It includes thermal blankets, foam insulation, and multilayer insulation (MLI) to prevent cryogenic propellant boil-off, reduce aerodynamic heating, and shield avionics from thermal fluctuations. 27 Tank Gas Diffuser Internal component within a propellant tank that evenly distributes pressurizing gas, preventing lo- calized turbulence, reducing bubble formation, and ensuring uniform pressure stabilization to maintain consistent propellant flow to the engines during flight. 28 2nd Stage Avion- ics System includes onboard processors, inertial mea- surement units (IMUs), telemetry transmitters, and communication systems, managing precise guidance, thrust vector control (TVC), and payload deploy- ment operations while maintaining continuous data exchange for mission tracking and orbital corrections. 26 2.2.3 Launch vehicle mass elements All components in a launch vehicle can be classified based on their function and whether they remain part of the vehicle after propulsion or are utilized during the flight. These elements are typically divided into three primary categories: • Propellant Mass (mp): The propellant is the mass expelled through the vehicle’s engines to generate thrust and propel the rocket forward. This category encompasses all consumable elements that are ejected as exhaust gases through the propulsion system. The total propellant mass includes the oxidizer and fuel, which are consumed during flight to produce the necessary force for ascent. However, non-propulsive jettisoned elements, such as payload fairings, are not included in this category. • Payload Mass (mPL): The primary objective of any launch vehicle is to transport a payload to a designated orbit or trajectory. The payload mass includes any scientific instruments, satellites, crewed modules, or cargo that the launch vehicle is designed to deliver. Every other component of the rocket serves the purpose of ensuring that the payload reaches the required velocity and altitude. Payload mass is often protected by a fairing, which is typically discarded once the vehicle reaches the upper atmosphere, thereby reducing unnecessary weight and improving efficiency • Structural Mass (ms): The structural mass encompasses all non-propellant and non-payload elements that remain with the vehicle during flight. This includes the outer structure, tanks, rocket engines, avionics, plumbing/feed lines, insulation, wiring, and guidance systems. While referred to as "structure," this mass also accounts for unused residual propellant, which remains in the tanks after the burn is completed. The structural mass, along with the payload, forms the final mass of the vehicle once all usable propellant has been expended. Some elements, such as payload fairings, are jettisoned mid-flight and do not contribute to the final mass. However, all core components that do not detach during ascent remain part of the structure until stage separation or final payload deployment. 27 2.2.4 Launch vehicle performance One important determinant of a launch vehicle’s ability to transport payloads into different orbits or outside of Earth’s gravitational pull is its performance. There are a couple of factors that affect the performance of launch vehicles. Those factors are defined as: • Delta-V (∆V ) • Specific impulse (Isp) • Payload fraction (π) • Structural factor (σ ) Engineers can optimize launch vehicle design for cost-effectiveness, dependability, and mission flexibility by being aware of these factors. Those main factors influencing launch vehicle performance are examined in this section. 2.2.4.1 Delta-V requirements As the name suggests, it is the velocity change needed for certain mission scenario. The required velocity change (∆V ) for a rocket stage is given by the "Tsiolkovsky Rocket Equation", which was also presented in Equation 2.1. In this instance it is presented with the values of the rocket. ∆V = Isp ·g0 · ln ( m0 m f ) (2.2) where: • Isp = specific impulse (s), • g0 = standard gravitational acceleration (9.8066 m/s2), • m0 = initial mass (including propellant), • m f = final mass (after propellant is burned). 28 Each space mission has a unique budget of energy (Delta-V budget), which solely depends on the orbit or celestial body that is targeted. Figure 2.13 [19]visually compares the Delta-V requirements for different missions. Table 2.9 gives an insight about some example space mission energy requirements. Table 2.9 : Typical Delta-V requirements for various space missions. Mission Delta-V Requirement (km/s) Low Earth Orbit (LEO) 9.3 - 9.8 Geostationary Transfer Orbit (GTO) 10.5 - 11.2 Lunar Transfer 11.5 - 12.0 Mars Transfer 12.5 - 13.5 Interstellar Probe >16.0 The choice o