The Relation Between Distribution And Investment In Turkey

Abstract

Bu tez çalismasi, Türkiye'de bölüsüm ve büyüme iliskisini, Türkiye özel imalat sanayi özelinde, talep ve kârliligin yatirimlar üzerindeki göreli etkilerini inceleyerek ele almaktadir. Neo-klasik iktisadi teorinin beklentilerinin aksine, Türkiye'de 1980'li yillarin basindan itibaren uygulamaya konulan yapisal uyum politikalari ile birlikte, kâr paylarinda yasanan artisa ragmen yatirimlarin artirilamamasi, bizi genel olarak ücret baskilamaya dayali olarak artirilan kâr paylarinin yatirimlar ile iliskisini sorgulamaya ve bastirilan ücretlerin talep üzerindeki azaltici etkisinin yatirimlardaki durgunluk üzerinde nasil bir rolünün oldugunu arastirmaya itmistir. Bu kapsamda, bu tez çalismasinda ücretlerin yatirimlar üzerindeki çift yönlü etkisini dikkate alan post-Keynesyen teorik yaklasimlarindan Bhaduri-Marglin modeli baz alinarak, Türkiye özel imalat sanayi alt sektörleri için, 1973 ve 2001 yillari arasinda talep ve kârliligin yatirimlar üzerindeki etkileri ekonometrik yöntemler kullanilarak arastirilmistir. Özel imalat sanayi alt sektörlerine özgü faktörlerin dikkate alinabilmesi ve ortak makroekonomik soklarin etkilerinin içsellestirilebilmesi amaciyla SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regression); özel imalat sanayi üzerinde konuyla ilgili kapsamli bir bakis açisi elde edebilmek amaciyla da sabit etkili, rassal etkili ve dinamik panel veri metotlari kullanilmistir. Yapilan SUR analizi neticesinde, sektörlere özgü faktörlerin talep ve kârliligin yatirimlar üzerindeki göreli etkilerinin belirlenmesinde önemli oldugu ve talebin yatirimlar üzerindeki etkisinin, incelenen sektörlerin yarisindan çogunda, kârliliginkinden daha büyük oldugu sonuçlarina ulasilmistir. Toplulastirilmis panel veri metotlarinin tamami, kârliligin özel imalat sanayi yatirimlarini anlamli olarak etkilemedigi, öte yandan talebin yatirimlar üzerinde olumlu ve anlamli etkisinin oldugu sonuçlarini ortaya çikârmistir. Bunun yaninda, yapilan ekonometrik analizlerde, ekonominin geneline iliskin talep beklentilerinin yatirimlar üzerinde etkili oldugu, öte yandan ihracatin yeni yatirimlar yolu ile verimlilik artisina bagli olmak yerine, mevcut kapasitenin kullanimindaki artisa ve ücret rekabetine dayanmasi nedeniyle, artan uluslararasi rekabetin yatirimlari artirmadigi sonuçlarina ulasilmistir.

This thesis analyzes the relation between distribution and investment in Turkey, by investigating the relative impacts of demand and profitability on investment for Turkish private manufacturing industry. The stagnant accumulation rates, despite the increase in profit share during the structural adjustment episode of Turkey after 1980s, in contrast to the expectations of neo-classical theory, have led us not only to question the relation between increasing profit share, which is provided through reduction in wage share, and investment, but also to investigate the effects of lowering wages on investment through decrease in demand. In this context, the relative effects of demand and profitability on investment are analyzed by using econometrical techniques, based on the panel data for the subsectors of Turkish private manufacturing industry, between 1973 and 2001, on the basis of the theoretical model of Bhaduri-Marglin, which is an extended version of post-Keynesian growth models, where the dual function of wages on determining investment is taken into consideration. SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regression) method, in order to take into account the sector-specific responses and the common impacts of macroeconomic shocks; fixed effects, random effects and dynamic panel methods, in order to capture the overall view for this issue in private manufacturing industry, are used as econometrical techniques for the analyses. The results of SUR estimation show that, sector-specific factors are important in determining the relative impacts of demand and profitability on investment and the impact of demand on investment is greater then that of profitability for more than half of the sub-sectors that are analyzed. The estimation results of all pooled panel data methods expose that, profitability has no significant effect on investment, whereas demand has a significant and positive effect on investment. Furthermore, according to the results of the econometrical analyses, the demand expectations for the aggregate economy are found to have significant effects on investment. Additionally, the increase in external competition is found to be ineffective on investment, since the increase in exports depends on wage competition and increasing use of existing capacity, rather than productivity increases via new investments