Improved Z-number and fault tree analysis to predict the risk of air pollution due to ship boiler operation

Abstract

Ships present a significant source of air pollution, contributing to environmental degradation and posing health risks. Boilers are a significant part of the vessels in which the water is heated to evaporate and generate steam. The boilers emit pollutants such as hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), particle pollution, and volatile organic compounds (VOC). This paper conducts an extended risk analysis for air pollution due to boiler operation on ships. An improved Z-numbers theory and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) are adopted to predict risk. Whilst improved Z-number theory is capable of handling uncertainties inherent in risk assessment, the FTA presents systematically the causal relationships among various factors contributing to the risk of air pollution on ships. The findings show that the failure probability of air pollution during ship boiler operation is 2.08E-05 and BE-12 is the most significant event. Results provide valuable data to maritime stakeholders in fostering environmentally sustainable practices.