Modelling maritime GHG emission measures impact assessment: a case study for container shipping by system dynamics

Abstract

The shipping industry is responsible for around 2% of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions worldwide. This research explores the interaction of technology change, operational approaches, and policy measures in achieving the target for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A simulation model based on the system dynamics of the maritime transport system has been created in accordance with International Maritime Organization (IMO) policies such as the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI), the Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) and the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII). Suggested actions to reduce the average speed of ships to 15 knots have shown significant reduction of CO₂ emissions in the short term. Further, the complete phase-out of High Fuel Oil (HFO) and the high uptake of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), methanol, and ammonia in an aggressive fuel transition scenario significantly lowers emissions by 2050. Market-based instruments such as fuel price mechanisms and carbon taxes are complementary methods that enable emissions reduction by encouraging the transition to cleaner fuels. The report calls for the harmonization of policies for the long-term sustainability of shipping. Future studies can expand the model by incorporating economy-related factors such as carbon prices and emissions trading mechanisms to help the industry achieve its 2050 net-zero target.