TEWI—Turkey Early Warning Index

Abstract

TEWI—Turkey Early Warning Index is a combination of eight different indexes that basically stands on eight different macroeconomic variables. Each variable was selected in accordance with the strength of reflecting macroeconomic outlook. Analysis of the macroeconomic variables shows that all variables have almost the same transactions in pre-crisis terms. The difference of TEWI—Turkey Early Warning Index from the current early warning systems appears in a new calculation method titled “hot money index.” We also defined the “hot money index” as the sum of portfolio investments and short-term credits that belong to other investments. With its current structure, TEWI—Turkey Early Warning Index has an ability to signal three months ahead of the economic constriction.